According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 10th to January 17th, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 11925 yuan/ton to 12462.5 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.51% during the cycle. This week, the butadiene market continued to rise. At the beginning of the week, affected by the rise in crude oil prices, holders had a strong mentality of supporting prices, and spot market prices rose significantly. Sinopec raised the ex factory price to 12500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 500 yuan/ton. But as prices continue to rise, downstream high-level receiving capacity gradually declines. As the Spring Festival approaches, some pre holiday purchasing demand has been released downstream, driving an improvement in the atmosphere of the spot market. As of January 17th, the delivery price in Shandong region is between 12700-12900 yuan/ton.

Cost aspect: During this cycle, crude oil prices have risen significantly. On the one hand, the OPEC+production reduction agreement has been extended until the end of the first quarter, and some oil producing countries still have compensatory production cuts. The United States has increased sanctions on Russia, and there are strong concerns about supply shortages. The supply side of crude oil is supportive, and crude oil market prices have risen significantly. On the other hand, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still exists, and the arrival of winter cold waves in Europe and America is expected to further boost fuel demand, which is good news for the international oil market. Overall, the rate of change in crude oil during the cycle is continuously expanding in a positive direction. As of January 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.68 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $81.29 per barrel.

Supply side: Sinopec’s various sales companies have raised the listed price of butadiene by 500 yuan/ton and implemented a price of 12500 yuan/ton. The 120000 tons/year butadiene plant of North Huajin has been restarted in October; Fujian United’s 180000 tons/year butadiene plant was shut down for maintenance on October 10th; Jilin Petrochemical’s 190000 ton plant shut down on August 25th and restarted on October 16th. Recently, the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much, and the overall supply is relatively stable.

On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall market for styrene butadiene and butadiene rubber has strengthened this cycle, especially for butadiene rubber, which has seen a significant increase. Currently, low-priced sources of goods are difficult to find in the spot market, and the market atmosphere is cautious. Downstream terminal demand maintains rigid procurement, and the market atmosphere is strong. As of January 17th, the mainstream market price for BR9000 butadiene rubber in East China is around 14700 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: From a cost perspective, the recent strengthening of the crude oil market will drive a stronger atmosphere in the spot market. From a supply perspective, the butadiene market has been relatively stable in recent times, with high raw material prices on the demand side and a slight decline in downstream purchasing intentions. Currently, the demand for essential supplies is being replenished, and the market demand performance is relatively stable. Overall, the performance of the butadiene market is still relatively strong, lacking downstream support. It is expected that there will be limited room for further growth in the future, and the overall trend will remain high consolidation.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province rose slightly this week (1.13-1.17), with an average market price of 16266 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16250 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.10%.

This week’s market analysis

In the early stage of the magnesium market this week, the overall performance was relatively stable, and trading activity was relatively quiet. However, as we entered the middle and later stages of the week, with some downstream customers and intermediate buyers increasing their scale of stocking up in the market, the market activity began to show a significant increase, and the overall trading atmosphere gradually heated up.

Supply and demand side

From the perspective of market supply and demand, in-depth analysis shows that the current factory quotations on the supply side remain relatively stable and firm. The market price has shown a slight increase compared to before, with an increase of 50 to 100 yuan/ton, which has boosted market confidence to some extent. On the demand side, downstream customers and traders may choose to adopt a wait-and-see attitude to observe market trends or prepare goods in an orderly manner according to their own business strategies and actual needs.

As the Spring Festival approaches, the operational strategies of all parties in the market are becoming more stable and conservative, and it is expected that the market situation will not experience significant fluctuations in the short term.

comprehensive analysis

In summary, the current magnesium ingot market prices are showing a slight upward trend, but overall, the market’s upside and downside space is still relatively limited. It is expected that the magnesium ingot market will maintain a slight adjustment trend within the range.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda on January 16th was 1554 yuan/ton. On January 15th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 103.34, a decrease of 0.07 points from yesterday, a decrease of 56.18% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 17.07% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is operating steadily, with a factory price of 1450-1550 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1500-1750 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. The current market average price is 1494 yuan/ton, and downstream customers tend to purchase according to their needs.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on January 15th, the reference price for domestic silicon metal # 441 was 11340 yuan/ton. Compared with January 10th (silicon metal # 441 market price of 11510 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.48%. Compared with January 1st (silicon metal # 441 market price of 11690 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.99%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in mid January, the domestic spot market for silicon metal continued to move towards a low level, and the overall market focus fell sharply again. As of January 14th, the price reference for Oxygen 553 # in East China is around 10900-11000 yuan/ton, 441 # is around 11200-11400 yuan/ton, 521 # is around 11300-11600 yuan/ton, and 421 # is around 11500-11800 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Market Factors

In terms of construction: As we enter mid January, the overall construction rate of the domestic silicon metal market continues to decline. Currently, the weekly construction rate in Xinjiang is around 57%, slightly lower than the beginning of the month. At present, the overall production in Xinjiang has also decreased. The weekly operating rate of silicon metal in Yunnan region is around 43%, slightly lower than the beginning of the month. At present, there are relatively few silicon producing enterprises in Yunnan region, and there will still be continued production cuts in the future. The current weekly operating rate in Sichuan region is only 7%, and it has also slightly decreased compared to the beginning of the month. Some silicon companies in the market are currently in production.

On the supply side: Currently, the domestic silicon metal market is in a weak supply-demand situation, with low silicon metal production in Xinjiang and Yunnan regions, and limited production in Sichuan region. Sichuan region has downstream supporting businesses in the silicon industry, resulting in low willingness to sell at discounted prices. The overall supply side of the market has slightly reduced inventory, and the supply side market is weak.

In terms of demand, there is a partial demand for supplementary orders in the downstream of metal silicon in Xinjiang, and the overall market has slightly reduced inventory. The inquiry atmosphere in the downstream of Yunnan is light, and the overall shipment pace is slow, with limited market support from the demand side.

Market analysis in the future

Currently, the market for silicon metal has fallen to a relatively low level. Although downstream demand orders are relatively low, due to the support of silicon companies’ own production costs and production reduction, the willingness to make significant concessions in the silicon metal market is still low. Therefore, the metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic spot market for silicon metal will mainly be weak and operate in a consolidated manner, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market in China was generally stable in January, with some spot prices of certain brands experiencing a slight decline. As of January 14th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 16466.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.30% compared to January 1st.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: Currently, domestic PC aggregation enterprises have a stable pattern of load absorption at the beginning of the month, with very limited changes. The industry average operating rate has been slightly adjusted from around 77.5% to 77%. The average weekly production remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons, and the on-site supply is still abundant, with no change in the supply-demand mismatch pattern. The high inventory has led to cautious pricing by manufacturers, while the market supply side has provided average support for PC prices.

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that after the significant recovery of bisphenol A at the end of last year, the bulls gradually ran out in early January, and downstream demand remained stable. After the upward movement of bisphenol A prices was blocked, it entered a consolidation market. The support for PC cost has weakened.

On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the overall trend continues to be weak at the end of last year. At the end of last year, there were some export orders placed in advance in the market. Currently, the overall trend is returning to weak rigid demand procurement, and industry players tend to be cautious and cautious. As the Lunar New Year holiday approaches, pre holiday stocking is gradually being completed, and some downstream factories are on holiday. The load on end enterprises is declining, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods. The slow circulation of goods in the market has limited changes, and the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.

Future forecast

The PC market remained stable with a slight decline in mid January. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently maintaining consolidation, with average support for PC costs. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has basically leveled off, and the supply remains loose and unchanged. The high level of inventory in the industry has limited changes, and there has been no substantial improvement in supply pressure. The downstream pre holiday stocking is gradually coming to an end, which has insufficient driving force on the market situation. It is expected that with the increase of delisting of practitioners in the future, PC may return to a calm pre holiday market and focus on consolidation and operation.