The market price of hydrofluoric acid fluctuated before and after the Spring Festival, and overall, the average market price remained stable compared to January. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 7th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month.

Supply side: After the Spring Festival, market trading is good, enterprises are actively starting production, and some areas are experiencing tight supply.

Raw material side: The price of raw fluorite remained stable this week. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 7th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3616.25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.

Recently, the price trend of raw material sulfuric acid in the market has declined, which has resulted in cost concessions for hydrofluoric acid. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 7th, the benchmark price of sulfuric acid in Shengyi Society was 387.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65% compared to the beginning of this month (385.00 yuan/ton). The upstream sulfur market of sulfuric acid is declining, and the cost price is decreasing. Downstream customers of sulfuric acid are not enthusiastic about purchasing sulfuric acid, and the sulfuric acid price market is falling. The domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend is weak and stable.

Demand side: After the Spring Festival, the refrigerant quota is abundant, and downstream refrigerant companies may increase their procurement of hydrofluoric acid. Some companies have a strong reluctance to sell, resulting in price increases and strong support from the demand side for refrigerants.

Market forecast: After the Spring Festival, there will be sufficient refrigerant quotas and increased market demand. It is expected that the hydrofluoric acid market will operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend, and more attention should be paid to the news of leading enterprises and market supply and demand.

The phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and rose in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 31st, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7312.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 10.80% compared to the price of 6600 yuan/ton on January 1st at the beginning of the month. The production of phthalic anhydride equipment is stable at a low level, and the inventory of phthalic anhydride is low; Spring Festival stocking, downstream demand for phthalic anhydride increases. The price of ortho benzene has risen, the cost of raw materials has increased, and the driving force for the price increase of phthalic anhydride has increased.

Supply side: tight supply of goods

Domestic phthalic anhydride plants operate at low loads, with approximately 60% of phthalic anhydride manufacturers operating at capacity. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers have low inventory levels, resulting in tight supply of phthalic anhydride.

The cost of raw material ortho benzene increased in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 31st, the price of ortho xylene was 7200 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.46% compared to the price of 6700 yuan/ton on January 1st at the beginning of the month. The price of ortho benzene has fluctuated and risen, and the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has increased. The upward momentum of ortho phthalic anhydride has increased. The price of industrial naphthalene has risen, and the cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has increased. The overall cost support for phthalic anhydride raw materials has increased.

Demand side: The DOP market fluctuated and rose in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 31st, the DOP price was 8576.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 4.25% compared to the DOP price of 8226.25 yuan/ton on January 1st. Downstream production is at a high level, and the demand for raw material phthalic anhydride is in urgent need of procurement. Prior to the Spring Festival, the replenishment of plasticizer manufacturers has ended, and the demand for phthalic anhydride has increased.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene has fluctuated and risen, the price of industrial naphthalene has risen, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has risen. There is a strong driving force for the increase in phthalic anhydride cost; In terms of demand, DOP manufacturers have high operating loads, coupled with Spring Festival stocking, which provides significant support for phthalic anhydride demand. Overall, with cost support and rising downstream demand, the phthalic anhydride market is on the rise. In the future, with the end of the Spring Festival inventory replenishment, demand has fallen, industrial naphthalene prices have risen, cost expectations have increased, and phthalic anhydride prices have slightly increased.

After the holiday, asphalt inventory remained high and prices slightly decreased. According to data from Shengyi Society, on February 5th, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province was 3663 yuan/ton, with a narrow decrease of about 20 yuan/ton.

During the Spring Festival, international oil prices are running weakly, and OPEC+will gradually increase oil production from April 1st. On February 1st, an additional 10% tariff will be imposed on goods imported from China, raising concerns about the demand outlook for crude oil in the market.

High social inventory. According to statistics, over 100 asphalt companies in China have accumulated over 1 million tons of asphalt inventory, with four consecutive weeks of growth in January. This is mainly due to the concentration and relocation of winter storage resources, leading to the accumulation of social inventory. In addition, during the Spring Festival period, logistics transportation entered a holiday state, and short-term delivery was not smooth, resulting in the accumulation of inventory.

In January, the domestic ABS market remained stable with some gains, and spot prices of some grades increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 31st, the average price of ABS sample products was 11875 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of+0.32% compared to the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: In January, the domestic ABS industry started with an initial increase followed by a decrease, and the industry load increased to 76% in the first half of the year. Subsequently, due to the decrease in load of the Tianjin Dagu plant, the level decreased by about 3% to 73% compared to the first half of the month. The average weekly production within the month is around 120000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises has slightly decreased to 160000 tons. The overall pattern of abundant supply of goods remains unchanged, with good pre-sales of petrochemical plants before the holiday, and there will still be some inventory pressure in early February in the future. Overall, the recent supply side has provided average support for ABS spot prices.

Cost factor: Entering January, the trend of ABS upstream materials is relatively strong, and overall support for ABS cost side is still acceptable. The domestic acrylonitrile market remained volatile and rising. The industry has been operating at low load during the month, and it seems that it will take some time for supply to return. Additionally, the industry’s inventory levels are low, and prices are running steadily. Downstream purchasing power has weakened before the holiday, but the overall market performance remains strong at a high level.

The butadiene market has also risen at a high level, and the available supply of goods in the spot market remains tight. Holders of goods have a strong mentality of raising prices. But with the continuous rise of spot prices in the early stage, the downstream high-level receiving ability gradually declines. At the same time, it is expected that the production capacity will increase in early February, and it is expected that butadiene may enter a consolidation market.

Styrene fluctuated in January, with an overall increase. It is common for styrene plants to return to production capacity within the month, while there is also a situation of accumulated cargo upon arrival at the port. However, the supply was tight in the early stage, and there was a tug of war between long and short positions in the market. At the same time, crude oil prices rose in the second half of the month, and styrene was boosted by the far upstream, resulting in a strong price trend.

In terms of demand, the export demand for some front-end household appliances in the terminal sector has been fully released before the January holiday, and downstream purchasing power has weakened during the Spring Festival period. The terminal factory is on vacation, and the overall load position has fallen. In the latter half of the year, some terminal enterprises were stimulated by the rise in ABS cost values and entered the market to purchase and replenish orders, with a bias towards pre holiday warehouse building. In addition, with the extension of the national subsidy policy for household appliances to stimulate the market, terminal products in the future may continue to receive policy support. Overall, the demand side has slightly improved its market support.

Future forecast

The domestic ABS market rose in January. The upstream three materials are operating relatively strongly, which provides sufficient comprehensive support for the cost side of ABS. The load variation of ABS polymerization plant is limited, and there is still pressure on the supply side. The demand side is mainly driven by essential needs, with some pre holiday warehouse construction projects entering the market. Business analysts believe that the ABS market in early February may continue to stabilize in the short term, with unemployed individuals returning to the market.

The price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell in January

In January 2025, the price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of January 24th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4711.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5% from the average price of 4688.33 yuan/ton on January 1st. Recently, the price of ethylene glycol has slightly fallen.

As the Spring Festival approaches, spot contract traders have weak trading, and receiving traders are cautious and afraid of high prices. They do not receive many goods, and market trading is average. The contract basis quotation is relatively stable, with a range of+27 to+28 in mid February and+33 to+34 in lower February.

In terms of external ethylene glycol, the landed price in China on January 23 was $550/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $561/ton.

Reasons for the recent weakening of ethylene glycol prices

1. The inventory data is low, but the arrival at the port has rebounded, and there is a certain accumulation of inventory data at the port. Coupled with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, the expectation of accumulated inventory caused by imported goods arriving at the port during the holiday is relatively strong.

2. Downstream polyester production may be affected by the operating rate of terminal demand, resulting in a downward shift.