1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the yellow phosphorus market has slightly increased this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus on Monday was 22660 yuan/ton, and on Sunday it was 22693.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.15%.

2、 Market analysis

The yellow phosphorus market has slightly increased this week. At present, the trading situation in the yellow phosphorus market is average. Yellow phosphorus manufacturers have a low intention to accept orders at low prices, with manufacturers mainly offering high prices. Downstream procurement is cautious, with demand being the main focus. Take as much as you need and wait and see. Overall, the market situation for yellow phosphorus is average. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 22600-22800 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, the phosphate ore market has temporarily stabilized and operated steadily this week. As of April 7th, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 1062 yuan/ton, which is the same as April 1st. The phosphorus ore data analyst from Business Society believes that the overall trading volume of the domestic phosphorus ore market is light and moderate, with a slight adjustment in the domestic phosphorus ore market range in the short term as the main focus.

In terms of coke, the market price of coke has remained stable this week, with an average price of 1753.33 yuan/ton for quasi first-class metallurgical coke in Shanxi region. The coke market continues to operate weakly, with coke companies currently continuing to suffer losses, with significant production restrictions, and difficulty in increasing operating rates in the short term, resulting in weak coke supply. The performance of the finished product market in terms of demand is still weak.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid is temporarily stable, organizing and operating. The average price of domestic thermal phosphoric acid market this week is 6540 yuan/ton. The phosphoric acid analyst from Shengyishe believes that there is currently a shortage of new orders in the market, and the trading atmosphere is cold. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus is stabilizing, and the phosphoric acid market is mainly wait-and-see.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that the upstream phosphate ore and coke markets are currently operating steadily, with average cost support. The downstream phosphoric acid market prices remain stable. Overall, the upstream and downstream markets are mostly in a wait-and-see trend, with cautious trading of new orders. It is expected that in the short term, the yellow phosphorus market will temporarily stabilize and operate, and actual transactions will be discussed on a single basis.

Recently, the market price of epichlorohydrin has remained relatively stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 3rd, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 8075.00 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as last Wednesday (March 27th).

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, since the end of March, the price of raw material propylene has stopped falling and rebounded, and the profit of propylene method has significantly decreased. The price of raw material glycerol has been generally stable recently, and the cost support for glycerol method still exists.

Supply and demand side: Some devices on the supply side have been shut down and reduced in load, resulting in reduced supply. Downstream demand is still insufficient, and inventory raw materials are mainly consumed. The purchase of epichlorohydrin continues to be a small order, with a weak market atmosphere.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current cost support is significant, coupled with supply side reduction, and the mentality of enterprises to ship at low prices has weakened. However, downstream buying is weak, and the market game is sorted out. It is expected that the market for epichlorohydrin may remain stagnant and operate in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 2nd, the average market price of phenylenediamine was 37900 yuan/ton. On March 26th, the average market price of phenylenediamine was 38233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87% from last week.

In terms of cost

Pure benzene: The price of pure benzene in China has slightly increased this week. On April 2nd, the price of pure benzene was 8572 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.33% compared to last week. The trend of crude oil is relatively strong, with some manufacturers raising prices. After negotiations in the pure benzene market, prices have slightly rebounded, and downstream styrene operating rates have slightly increased.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly decreased this week. On April 2nd, the price of nitric acid was 1750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56% compared to last week. At present, the market is consolidating and observing, with manufacturers maintaining stable shipments.

In terms of demand

The main downstream demand for resorcinol is weak, and supply and demand are under pressure. Dyes, pesticide intermediates, and other new orders have poor prices, and market prices remain weak.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the upstream pure benzene market has stopped falling and rebounded, and there is currently no positive news for nitric acid. Downstream demand is average, with no significant increase in demand. Pay attention to the cost side and changes in demand for meta phenylenediamine in the later stage.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of cryolite slightly decreased in March. As of March 31st, the average market price in Henan Province was 7550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to the price of 7600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 0.66%.

In March, the domestic ice crystal market saw a downward trend, with major ice crystal enterprises experiencing significant stability and minor fluctuations. The strong rise in raw material prices in March has increased the cost pressure on the cryolite market. Most companies have operated with firm quotations, while some companies have been affected by demand, resulting in poor factory shipments and a slight decrease in cryolite prices. Downstream investors are resistant to high priced ice crystals, and follow up on demand when entering the market. Market transactions are negotiated for shipment, and the trading atmosphere on the market is weak. Insufficient demand support has suppressed the rise in ice crystal prices.

Upstream fluorite showed a strong upward trend in March, with prices rising. As of March 31st, the average price of fluorite was 3431.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.43% compared to the beginning of the month price of 3350.00 yuan/ton. The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and upstream mining is tense. Backward mines will continue to be phased out. In addition, recent national departments have issued price inquiries to rectify fluorite mines, and mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements. The difficulty of starting fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the progress of fluorite enterprises in resuming work and production. The price trend of fluorite has increased.

Market forecast: In the near future, the raw materials of cryolite have risen, the cost of cryolite has increased, and the market mentality has had a positive impact. However, downstream resistance to high priced cryolite still exists, with limited entry into the market for purchasing. The market trading atmosphere is light, and under the game of supply and demand, it is expected that the cryolite market will remain stagnant and consolidate in the later stage. In the future, attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up.

Aluminum prices fluctuated and rose in March

Aluminum prices fluctuated and rose in March. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on March 29, 2024 was 19490 yuan/ton, which was 18970 yuan/ton higher than the average market price at the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.74%.

Aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate strongly in April

The aluminum price in April may continue to fluctuate strongly, for the following reasons:

The production of electrolytic aluminum is relatively stable. Although there is an expectation of increasing production in Yunnan, downstream consumption is gradually entering the peak season, and orders continue to recover. At present, social inventory is at a new low in the same period in recent years, and the trend of accumulated inventory is tending to end. As of March 28th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the domestic mainstream market was 910000 tons, which is a cumulative inventory of 95000 tons compared to 815000 tons of electrolytic aluminum in the domestic mainstream market on February 29th; Compared to March 25th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the mainstream domestic market was 913000 tons, with a destocking of 3000 tons. In the near future, the social inventory of aluminum ingots may enter a state of destocking, which will provide certain support for aluminum prices.

The international macro sentiment remains strong, with the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut and the strengthening of overseas monetary easing expectations. The non-ferrous sector has certain financial attributes, which provides positive support for aluminum prices. The final consumer confidence index for March in the Eurozone was -14.9, which met expectations and slightly increased from the previous value of -15.5; The industrial prosperity index for March was -8.8, slightly higher than the expected -9.0 and the previous value of -9.5; The economic prosperity index is 96.3, expected to be 96.3, with a previous value of 95.4. The overall economic prosperity of the Eurozone has recovered, but most indicators are still in negative ranges. Recently, the European Central Bank has taken action to ensure that the economy does not fall into recession, and has begun to release some dovish signals.

It is expected that aluminum prices may enter a volatile and strong operating trend in the short term.