On May 5th, the General Plastics Index was 830 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.12% from the highest point in the cycle of 1171 points (2021-10-14), and an increase of 27.11% from the lowest point of 653 points on April 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)
According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, there were a total of 5 products that rose and 1 product that fell on the April 2024 general plastic price rise and fall list
In April, the general plastic industry saw an overall red trend. After the Qingming Festival, the general material consumption market has gradually taken over the pattern of downstream resumption of work in March. At the same time, March and April are also the peak seasons for some plastic products such as polyethylene. Coupled with the release of pre holiday stocking demand during the May Day holiday, multiple consumer side benefits are added to the April rigid demand base. The strengthening of international crude oil at the beginning of the month in the remote upstream injected strong cost support into the general plastic industry. Except for EVA, the general material market has shown a positive trend during the month, boosted by demand and cost.
PS
Fundamentals: The domestic PS market has taken on a positive pattern in the early stage, and the overall market trend in April was on an upward trend. The raw material styrene continues to rise, while the cost of PS supports a high level of growth. During the month, some devices experienced short shutdowns and supply showed a tightening trend. Affected by terminal demand such as home appliance packaging, downstream markets have stable demand, with good transaction atmosphere in East and South China.
Leading factor: Due to the continuous rise in styrene prices, it has boosted the PS raw material end while also compressing the profit margins of producers. In April, some devices underwent short repairs and were followed up. Coupled with the shutdown of many large factories in East and North China last month, domestic production continued to decrease.
Market forecast: There will be a significant restart of styrene plants in May, with an expected increase in supply. The raw material pure benzene market is weak and consolidating. At this stage, the main positive sentiment of PS is weakening, and the post holiday market may experience stagflation and correction.
ABS
Fundamentals: In April, the domestic ABS industry took on a low-level pattern of load in the early stage, and the operating rate at the end of the month decreased from 62% at the beginning of the month to around 55%. The supply side provided strong support for ABS spot goods throughout the month. The simultaneous rise of three upstream materials has supported the price of ABS. The terminal demand remains stable while the market trading is average.
Leading factor: Domestic ABS manufacturers conducted centralized maintenance in the first half of the month and also experienced varying degrees of load reduction in the second half. The synchronous reduction in production has led to a decrease in the supply of goods on site. At the same time, due to the positive transmission of the rise in international oil prices in the first half of the year, the upstream three materials have provided strong support for ABS. In April, ABS experienced a dual drive of supply and cost, resulting in an increase in its high level.
Market forecast: By the end of April, the demand side will have just entered the market, and the support for spot goods will be smooth. It is expected that there will be limited changes in the fundamentals in the later period, and in the short term, the ABS market may continue to operate at a high level and remain strong.
PE
Fundamentals: At the beginning of the month, driven by the positive rise in crude oil prices, the cost side of polyethylene supported high enterprises. In the middle of the month, the industry ushered in a spring inspection, and petrochemical enterprises concentrated their parking and maintenance, significantly relieving the pressure on the supply side. The flow rate of market goods is still acceptable, and pre holiday packaging film stocking also increases the heat of on-site trading.
Leading factor: Polyethylene supply tightened in April, leading to higher costs. At the same time, it is in the second half of the peak season for downstream agricultural film demand, with a combination of bullish fundamentals driving the rise of polyethylene.
Market forecast: Agricultural film is gradually entering the off-season in the future, and there is also an expectation of a decrease in packaging film production, which weakens support for the polyethylene market. However, the industry is still in a period of concentrated maintenance, and there is an expectation that supply will continue to narrow. After the holiday, the polyethylene market may still be dominated by the above behaviors, but the upward space may be limited.
PP
Fundamentals: The overall trend of upstream raw materials is improving, with sustained strong cost support. The average monthly load of the industry is about 74%. During the month, production lines of enterprises such as Shenhua Baotou and Donghua Ningbo underwent maintenance, and some enterprises continued to enter the maintenance process, leading to a reduction in market supply. The inventory of production enterprises is gradually being digested, and the supply pressure is gradually easing. In terms of demand, downstream enterprises of PP have remained stable with small fluctuations, and replenishment operations are mainly in demand, resulting in mediocre market trading activity.
Leading factor: PP raw materials are expected to strengthen alternately in April. After the international crude oil prices rose in the first half of the month, they were consolidated and put into operation; Propane was boosted by the external market and stopped falling and rose in the middle of the month; Methanol supply and demand are moderate, and stocking demand is driving up the month end market. Driven by the cost side rotation, polypropylene from various process routes has gained more profits, which is the main guiding factor for the polypropylene market in April.
Market forecast: After the holiday, the supply of goods is expected to tighten, and the supply side will continue to decompress. But terminal enterprises operate steadily, and stocking up is essential to maintain production. Moreover, the pre holiday stocking volume is not significant, and it is expected that the PP market will remain stagnant in the short term.
PVC
Fundamentals: In April, the PVC spot market prices fluctuated narrowly with strong fluctuations, with gains concentrated in the first half of the month. In the first half of the month, the momentum of the spot market was still good, and manufacturers had a strong willingness to raise prices. Merchants tried to report higher prices, and the terminal just needed support. In the latter half of the year, the speed of on-site sales slowed down, and the buyer camp was more cautious in procurement. There was a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the enthusiasm for stocking up before the holiday was average.
Dominant factors: In April, the PVC fundamentals were bullish and bearish, and the performance of the main futures contracts was average during the transition period. The market lacks guidance and is generally stagnant and stable.
Market forecast: Upstream calcium carbide destocking is slow, while downstream real estate data is still declining. It is expected that PVC spot prices may shift to a range of weak fluctuations in the short term.
EVA
Fundamentals: The mid month market consolidation of raw material ethylene lacks guidance. After the recovery of supply, there has been an increase in offers; In the first half of the month, both supply and demand of vinyl acetate decreased, leading to a stalemate in the market. The downstream load is gradually decreasing, and consumption is shrinking. In early April, domestic EVA enterprises faced high demand and supply pressure. Weak demand within the month and slow product circulation speed.
Leading factor: In the early stage, domestic EVA enterprises started construction at a high level of nearly 90%, and the focus of factory pricing was lost. Although it dropped significantly to around 70% at the end of the month, the demand side continued to be weak, and the supply of goods on the market was overwhelming and difficult to digest. The traditional downstream procurement of foam shoe materials and cable materials is weak. The purchasing level of photovoltaic enterprises is lower than expected, and on-site trading is concentrated in low-end offers. There are few new orders in the market, and the supply-demand contradiction is becoming increasingly intensified.
Future prediction: There is no significant turning point in the current domestic EVA market pattern. The second raw material is expected to provide smooth support for spot goods in the future market. There is little possibility of a rebound in demand after the end of the period, and the market may still be struggling to maintain the demand line. In the short term, the EVA market may tend to be weak, and it is recommended to closely monitor the supply side trends.
Market Outlook
In April, the general plastic industry generally welcomed a good start to the second quarter, with a narrow and strong overall market trend. In the future, macro wise, on May 1st, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the target range of the federal funds rate between 5.25% and 5.5% unchanged, and slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction starting from June. The International Monetary Fund has raised its global economic growth expectations, easing concerns about market prospects; In terms of remote costs, the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, coupled with the easing of tensions in the Middle East and a decrease in crude oil risk premiums, have led to a significant decline in oil prices; At present, various terminal enterprises are operating steadily, and downstream enterprises generally need to stock up to maintain production. With the end of the pre holiday stock boom, the performance of the general materials market tends to be balanced in early May; Overall, the pre holiday price trend of the general plastic industry may enter a stalemate consolidation market.
