The domestic propane market continued to rise in May. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of propane in Shandong’s market was 5178 yuan/ton on May 1st, and 5565 yuan/ton on May 28th, with a monthly increase of 7.46%, an increase of 22.3% compared to the same period last year.

As of May 28th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions of China are as follows:

Region/ May 28th

East China region/ 5100-5150 yuan/ton

North China region/ 5350-5550 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 5550-5750 yuan/ton

Northeast region/. 5470-5500 yuan/ton

There is a significant difference in the propane market between the north and south in May. Taking Shandong as an example, after the May Day holiday, downstream restocking was concentrated, and upstream inventory decreased to a low level. At the same time, downstream PDH units began to operate one after another, with a significant increase in demand, driving up propane prices. Along with price increases, the transaction atmosphere weakened, and shipments were not smooth, resulting in a decline in propane prices in the middle of the month. In late May, PDH production remained at a high level, and with the boost of demand and crude oil, propane prices continued to rise, reaching a high level.

Saudi Aramco announced its CP in May 2024, with propane at $580 per ton, a decrease of $35 per ton compared to the previous month; Butane is $585 per ton, a decrease of $35 per ton from the previous month. Equivalent cost in onshore US dollars: $615/ton for propane and $625/ton for butane.

Overall, with the upcoming release of CP in June, the enthusiasm for downstream entry into the market has weakened, and the wait-and-see atmosphere has become stronger. However, with low upstream inventory and stable demand, it is expected that the propane market will operate at a high level in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market fell in May. On May 1st, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 23593.33 yuan/ton, and on May 28th, the average price was 22626.67 yuan/ton. The price fell by 4.1% during the month.

2、 Market analysis

In May, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market fell, and the overall trading situation in the yellow phosphorus market was average. In the first half of the year, the domestic yellow phosphorus market was light, with a downward focus on the market. Downstream procurement was mainly driven by price pressures, and many manufacturers did not provide external quotations, with negotiations being the main focus. At present, the trading situation in the yellow phosphorus field is still good in the middle of the month. The manufacturer mainly issues preliminary orders, and the inventory is controllable. Yellow phosphorus enterprises mainly raise prices. In the latter half of the month, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market fluctuated. High end prices will be lowered, while low-end prices will be adjusted. The overall procurement is still relatively cautious, with a stalemate between upstream and downstream operations. As of now, the market price for yellow phosphorus is around 22500-22900 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the market trend of phosphate ore is slightly upward. On May 1st, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1042 yuan/ton. On May 28th, the average price was 1048 yuan/ton, and the price increased by 0.58% during the month. At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild, and the supply and demand sides provide stable market support. The phosphate ore data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mostly operate steadily with a strong bias.

In terms of coke, according to the analysis and monitoring of the commodity market by Business Society, the price of quasi first level metallurgical coke in Shanxi Province was 1968.33 yuan/ton on May 1, 2024, and the average price on May 28 was 1960 yuan/ton. The price fell by 0.42% during the month. At present, downstream inquiries are relatively cautious, market trading is slightly light, and actual transactions are still limited. It is expected that the trend will remain stable in the short term.

In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of phosphoric acid on May 1st was 6680 yuan/ton, and the average price on May 28th was 6600 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 1.2% during the month. Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the phosphoric acid market has been operating weakly recently. The price and cost support for raw material yellow phosphorus is average, and downstream purchases are made on demand. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will focus on wait-and-see consolidation.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that the market price of yellow phosphorus fell in May. The upstream coke market prices have fallen, and cost support is average. Downstream buyers are still willing to purchase at a lower price, but yellow phosphorus manufacturers currently have little inventory pressure and the possibility of low-priced shipments is relatively low. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will continue to remain stagnant and consolidate in the short term, with actual transactions being discussed on a single basis.

1、 Price trend: The PTFE market has maintained stable operation this week. According to the monitoring system of Business Society, as of May 24th, The market price of PTFE suspended particles remains around 35000-50000 yuan/ton.

2、 Influencing factors: On May 24th, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market remained stable, with stable operation of on-site equipment and normal supply of goods. Recently, the market for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has risen, and the price of fluorite has continued to rise. The high cost side remains under pressure. As of May 24th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid (export) for Shengyishe was 14150.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.54% compared to the beginning of this month (13800.00 yuan/ton). The benchmark price of Yingyishe fluorite is 3806.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.57% compared to the beginning of this month (3675.00 yuan/ton).

Downstream end: There is no favorable phenomenon in the downstream market, and there is insufficient purchasing sentiment, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. At present, the polytetrafluoroethylene market is in a sustained downturn.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The polytetrafluoroethylene analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the high prices of raw materials will support, downstream demand will be weak and continue to be sluggish, and the polytetrafluoroethylene market will operate weakly and steadily.

This week (5.20-5.24), the domestic butyl acetate market continued to operate weakly, mainly affected by demand and cost factors. Downstream purchasing was sluggish, with a bearish outlook on the future market. Upstream raw materials such as n-butanol and acetic acid were weak, and the confidence of butyl acetate manufacturers was insufficient. The performance of the butyl acetate market this week was quiet, with limited new orders and trading prices remaining at the level of last weekend. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the fluctuation of butyl acetate during the cycle is 0.

Market analysis: The prices of major butyl acetate manufacturers have fluctuated this week, with an upward range of 50-100 yuan/ton and a downward range of around 50 yuan/ton. The price of raw material acetic acid continues to decline, while the market for n-butanol is weak. The cost side market has affected the market mentality, resulting in insufficient downstream buying gas and limited new orders in the market. Manufacturers often ship according to demand, resulting in weak actual transactions. However, the operating rate of the butyl acetate industry remains low, and the price increase from manufacturers also has a boosting effect. Limited supply also supports prices. During the cycle, the market for butyl acetate will be observed, organized, and operated.

Market forecast: Currently, the trading in the butyl acetate market is slightly chaotic, with insufficient cost support. The downstream market is mainly bearish, and it is expected that the ethyl acetate market will remain stagnant and consolidate in the short term. In the future, attention will be paid to the price execution of raw materials such as acetic acid, n-butanol, and ethyl acetate manufacturers. At present, the mainstream transaction price in the market is between 7600-7880 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 23, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6620 yuan/ton, which is 0.70% higher than the reference average price of 6670 yuan/ton on May 17.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic phosphoric acid market prices have slightly increased this week. This week, raw material prices have remained high, with support from the cost side. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, with limited new orders in the market. The price of hot process phosphoric acid has remained stable and increased, while the market for wet process phosphoric acid has remained stable with minor fluctuations. As of May 23rd, the market price for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-6900 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6300-7000 yuan/ton.

Market for raw material phosphate rock. The market price of phosphate ore is temporarily stable this week. The reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 1048 yuan/ton. The inquiry atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild, and the pace of phosphate ore shipments in some areas is clear, with a good mentality among the operators. In the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market is mainly stable with minor adjustments.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market fluctuated. At present, the trading situation in the yellow phosphorus market is still good, with manufacturers mainly issuing early orders and tight spot prices. Yellow phosphorus enterprises are mainly raising prices. The downstream inquiry situation is relatively positive, with high-end prices lowered and low-end prices adjusted. The overall procurement is still relatively cautious, and the upstream and downstream continue to remain deadlocked. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 22500-23000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the phosphoric acid market has been consolidating and operating recently. The raw material market remains strong in the short term, and market demand needs to be improved. The industry is mainly cautious. It is expected that the short-term price consolidation in the phosphoric acid market will be the main trend.