1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this month. Since the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene has been rising, and after mid month, the price has remained stable. The price continues to rise towards the end of the month. On May 1st, the price was 8672 yuan/ton; On May 31st, the price was 9120 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.16% from the beginning of the month and 39.84% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: Yesterday, news of the East China factory speculating on the Lai plant continued to drive up prices, while Shandong Refinery reported an increase in prices. After the price increase, the market followed up normally, but due to low inventory levels in multiple factories, actual transactions fell short of expectations. The night trading of pure benzene reached around 9380 yuan/ton, and due to the completion of delivery in May, it is expected that there is a high possibility of consolidation in the market today.

This month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene has risen to 9100 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspect

3、 Future Market Forecast

Crude oil: Although commercial crude oil inventories in the United States have decreased, the increase in gasoline inventories has raised certain concerns, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 07 fell by $1.32 per barrel, or 1.67%, at 77.91; ICE oil futures contract 07 fell $1.74 per barrel, or 2.08%, at 81.86. The main contract of China INE crude oil futures, 2407, fell 0.4 to 616.9 yuan/barrel, and fell 13.8 to 603.1 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

Pure benzene overseas: FOB Korea increased by $12 to $1098/ton, CFR China increased by $12 to $1116/ton, and FOB Southeast Asia increased by $12 to $1081/ton. FOB Rotterdam stabilized at $1195 per ton, FOB USG stabilized at 399 cents per gallon.

The fundamentals are showing an upward trend in the short term, with sufficient supply on the market. Pure benzene may continue to rise in the short term, and we are waiting to see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in demand and downstream equipment dynamics on the price of pure benzene.

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, as of May 31, 2024, the reference price for diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 5475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the price on May 1, 2024 (reference price for diethylene glycol is 5495 yuan/ton), a decrease of 0.36%.

From the monitoring of data from Business Society, it can be seen that the domestic diethylene glycol market rose first and then fell in May. The supply and demand fundamentals of diethylene glycol have weakened this month, with the market’s focus initially rising and then falling. At the beginning of the month, the highest inventory at the main port was 46000 tons, and the number of ships arriving within the month was average. After the inventory decreased, it fluctuated narrowly and did not show any significant increase. However, it did not provide effective support to the market. The main reason is that downstream demand performance was flat, UPR and polyester industry demand was weak, and the market lacked upward momentum. The downstream stocking atmosphere before the May Day holiday caused a slight increase in the market, while the main port inventory increased significantly after the holiday. However, the impact on the market was limited, and demand follow-up remained relatively stable. The supply and demand side slightly improved, and the market operated firmly with price fluctuations rising. In mid month, the market weakened and consolidated after rising, with main port inventories showing a downward trend and little change on the supply side. Downstream UPR production remained stable, while the polyester industry saw a decline in production. The overall performance of the demand side was weak, and the mentality of the industry was average. After a narrow rise in the market, it weakened and consolidated. In the second half of the month, the market center of gravity fluctuated and declined. Some domestic devices had plans to restart, and there was a relatively concentrated import arrival at the end of the month. The supply side had weak expectations, coupled with continued weak downstream demand, the focus of market negotiations gradually weakened.

Inventory and shipment situation: In May, the inventory of diethylene glycol in the main port of East China first increased and then decreased, with the highest point being 46100 tons and the lowest point being 32800 tons. As of May 30, 2024, the inventory of diethylene glycol in East China was 34400 tons, a decrease of 3100 tons from the end of April and a year-on-year increase of 14500 tons; The overall inventory of East and South China was 39600 tons, a decrease of 5100 tons from the end of April and a year-on-year increase of 14200 tons.

In May 2024, the total shipment volume from Zhangjiagang Port in East China was 29500 tons, a decrease of 6200 tons from April, and the daily average shipment volume was about 983 tons. In May, the downstream unsaturated resin and polyester industry saw a decline in production, leading to a decrease in demand for diethylene glycol and a decrease in the number of shipments from ports.

Future forecast: The domestic diethylene glycol market will fluctuate in a weak range in June. In June, domestic maintenance equipment was gradually restarted, and domestic supply was expected to increase. The change in import quantity may not be significant compared to May, and the supply side has limited market support; In terms of demand, the downstream main UPR gradually entered a seasonal off-season in June, and the polyester industry will also experience some production reduction. It may be difficult to provide effective support for the demand for diethylene glycol. Overall, the domestic diethylene glycol market may fluctuate in a weak range in June, and attention should be paid to equipment, demand performance, and changes in market mentality.

Aluminum fluoride prices slightly increased in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 31, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 11000 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton or 0.69% compared to the price of aluminum fluoride on May 1, which was 10925 yuan/ton. The raw material prices have stabilized at a high level, and the cost of aluminum fluoride was relatively good in May. Aluminum fluoride enterprises started operating steadily, and the market supply was sufficient. Downstream electrolytic aluminum started operating more, and the demand for aluminum fluoride was good. As a result, the price of aluminum fluoride remained stagnant and consolidated in May.

High consolidation of raw material prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the average price of fluorite was 3806.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.57% compared to the beginning of the month price of 3675.00 yuan/ton. As of May 31st, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 11620 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of hydrofluoric acid on May 1st, which was 11620 yuan/ton. The resumption of work and production at the fluorite mine in May is still slow, and the supply of fluorite on site continues to be tight. The fluorite market has strong support, and the price trend of fluorite continues to rise. In May, the overall domestic hydrofluoric acid price remained stable, with little change in on-site equipment operation. Some manufacturers of hydrofluoric acid had accumulated inventory, and there were still equipment shutdowns waiting for the market. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid was normal, with anhydrous hydrofluoric acid operating at around 60%. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid in May first rose and then fell. The prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid are mainly high, while the cost of aluminum fluoride is well supported, and the upward momentum of aluminum fluoride is increasing.

Electrolytic aluminum market fluctuates and rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 31, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 21256.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.49% compared to the aluminum price of 20540.00 yuan/ton on May 1. The rapid increase in alumina prices has provided strong cost support for aluminum ingot prices; The favorable policies at the end of the month have boosted the price of aluminum ingots again, resulting in overall strong aluminum ingot prices and good demand for aluminum fluoride.

Market Overview and Forecast

Market forecast: In terms of raw materials, the price of fluorite is rising, the hydrofluoric acid market is consolidating at a high level, and cost support is still acceptable; In terms of demand, the trend of electrolytic aluminum is relatively strong, which supports the demand for aluminum fluoride positively. In the future, the cost of aluminum fluoride is high, and the aluminum fluoride market has sufficient supply and good demand. It is expected that the aluminum fluoride market will continue to operate strongly in the future, with slight price fluctuations. In the future, attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of cryolite in Henan region has been stable this week. As of May 31, the average market price in Henan region was 7550 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the average price of 7550 yuan/ton on May 25. The price remained unchanged throughout the week.

This week, the ice crystal market remained stable and cautious, with no change in enterprise ice crystal quotations. The upstream price of fluorite has slightly increased, putting more pressure on the cost of cryolite. However, downstream parties continue to have resistance towards high priced cryolite, mainly entering the market according to demand, with limited market trading. Currently, the downstream market dominates, and there is a clear game on the market with insufficient transactions, which suppresses the rise of cryolite prices. cryolite manufacturers are mainly under pressure and remain stable. As of May 31st, the ex factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8500 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8000 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market is relatively strong, with an average market price of 3812.50 yuan/ton as of May 31, an increase of 0.16% compared to the price of 3806.25 yuan/ton on May 25. The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, with tension in upstream mining and the continued elimination of outdated mines. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low, and the supply of goods is tight. The price trend of fluorite continues to rise.

Market forecast: The upstream of cryolite will continue to remain strong, with pressure on cryolite production and favorable support for raw materials; Downstream resistance is strong, demand for purchasing is light, and ice crystal enterprises have poor shipments; The supply-demand game on the market is obvious, and the rise of ice crystals is weak. It is expected that the ice crystal market will remain stagnant in the later stage, and prices may rise slightly. In the future, attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up.

DBP price of plasticizer slightly increased in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 30th, The DBP price is 9566.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.45% compared to the DBP price of 9337.50 yuan/ton on May 1st. Plasticizer enterprises operate at a high operating rate and have sufficient supply. The prices of raw materials have fluctuated and increased, with increased cost support. The price of plasticizer DBP has fluctuated and increased, and macroeconomic policies have stimulated the expected rebound in demand for plasticizers. Overall, there is still support for the rise in plasticizer prices.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 30th, the quotation for isooctanol was 9910 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.59% compared to the quotation of 9660 yuan/ton on May 1st. In May, the price of isooctanol was at the bottom of the market, and there was limited room for its decline. Since the domestic isooctanol market hit bottom in mid April, the price center of isooctanol has slowly shifted upwards. From the demand side, the rotating maintenance of downstream plasticizers and isooctyl acrylate units in May resulted in low continuity of buying, and the fluctuation range of isooctyl alcohol narrowed. The market for isooctanol lacks continuous upward momentum, and the price of isooctanol has fluctuated slightly.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and rose in May

According to the analysis system of n-butanol commodity market by Business Society, as of May 30th, the quotation for n-butanol was 8466.67 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and increased by 8.09% compared to the price of n-butanol on May 1st, which was 7833.33 yuan/ton. The supply and demand of n-butanol market is weak, and the overall market is operating quietly. In the first and second half of the year, some downstream small areas require replenishment, and the focus of the n-butanol market is slightly upward. The overall production capacity utilization rate of n-butanol has not changed much, and the overall supply side of the market remains stable. The trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is average, and the main factories of n-butanol have stable shipments. Downstream demand for n-butanol has rebounded, and the price of n-butanol has stabilized strongly.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose in May

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products by Shengyishe, as of May 30th, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 8187.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuation increase of 6.06% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on May 1st, which was 7720 yuan/ton. The price of raw material ortho benzene has increased, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has increased; In the middle and late stages, the phthalic anhydride unit underwent centralized maintenance, and its daily production capacity utilization rate has dropped to 59%. The supply of phthalic anhydride has decreased, supporting the rise in phthalic anhydride prices. The cost line of plasticizer DBP has slightly increased.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in May, the production of plasticizer DBP manufacturers slightly decreased, and upstream isooctanol and n-butanol manufacturers, as well as downstream PVC product enterprises of plasticizers, all experienced varying degrees of maintenance, resulting in an overall tightening of supply in the plasticizer sector; Downstream production has decreased, and downstream demand for plasticizers is expected to decrease. In the future, in June, plasticizer manufacturers reduced maintenance and resumed supply, resulting in a double increase in supply and demand. The supply of plasticizers was sufficient, and demand rebounded; The rise in raw material prices has slowed down, and the support for the increase in plasticizer costs has weakened; Downstream demand support is increasing, and it is expected that the price of plasticizer DBP will consolidate strongly in the future.