1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda on February 18th was 1550.4 yuan/ton. On February 18th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 102.90, a decrease of 0.14 points from yesterday, a decrease of 56.37% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 16.57% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is operating steadily, with a factory price of 1450-1550 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1500-1750 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. The current market average price is 1420 yuan/ton, and downstream customers tend to purchase according to their needs.

According to analysts from Business Society, the price of baking soda has been weak and consolidating in recent times. The upstream raw material soda ash has generally been in operation recently, while downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food will mostly purchase according to demand after the year. The demand enthusiasm is average, and there is a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that baking soda prices will mainly fluctuate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

In mid February, the domestic ABS market consolidation was weak, and the spot prices of some grades were narrowly lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 18th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11862.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -0.11% compared to the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: In mid February, there was limited change in the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry, and the load decreased by about 1% to 72% compared to the first ten days. The average weekly production within ten days is close to 130000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises has risen to over 180000 tons. The overall pattern of abundant supply of goods remains unchanged. The post holiday orders of petrochemical plants are poor, and traders are lagging behind in terms of goods delivery, resulting in a rebound in the early month’s price increase. Under the pressure of balancing costs, some production enterprises have plans to reduce their burden. Overall, the recent supply side has provided poor support for ABS spot prices.

Cost factor: Since mid February, the trend of ABS upstream materials has been stable with some weakness, and overall support for ABS costs has been average. The domestic acrylonitrile market is stagnant and declining. Although the low load situation in the industry continued in the early stage, with the spread of expected news of expanding supply in the future and the impact of new production capacity, the positive news on the supply side is gradually being digested. Fortunately, the inventory level in the industry is still low, and the price drop is relatively narrow. But downstream buying sentiment has weakened, and the overall market outlook may turn bearish in the future.

The butadiene market has loosened at a high level. Although the spot market continues the previous tight pattern, with the expected increase in industry load, supply will inevitably move towards abundance. In addition, due to the high spot prices in the early stage, downstream buyers have become increasingly resistant to receiving goods at high levels, resulting in a slight lack of market momentum and a stalemate between supply and demand sides. It is expected that butadiene may continue its weak consolidation trend.

In mid February, the styrene market was mainly characterized by sideways consolidation. The load of the styrene plant stabilized within ten days, while the market supply and demand remained basically stable. Upstream pure benzene is difficult to utilize in remote oil due to the easing of geopolitical relations, with prices stagnating at high levels and narrowly declining. The fundamental guidance of styrene is ambiguous, and it may continue to be organized and operated.

In terms of demand, the export demand for some front-end household appliances in the terminal sector has been fully released before the holiday, and downstream purchasing power has significantly weakened compared to the end of the lunar calendar after the holiday. The current resumption process of terminal factories is lagging behind, and the overall load position is slowly recovering. In addition, terminal enterprises still have inventory to digest, and the atmosphere of on-site purchasing is sluggish. Overall, the demand side has a slower pace in providing market support.

Future forecast

In mid February, the domestic ABS market remained stable with slight weakness. The weak and stable consolidation of the upstream three materials provides average comprehensive support for the cost side of ABS. The load variation of ABS polymerization plant is relatively small, and the inventory accumulation level remains unchanged. In the future, aggregation enterprises have plans to reduce their burden, and the pressure on the supply side may gradually decrease. The demand side expansion is still insufficient, and some downstream enterprises are slow to return to production. Business analysts believe that the ABS market has weak supply and demand, and in the short term, the market will continue to be dominated by weak and stable consolidation.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi remained stable this week (2.1-2.14), with an average market price of 16250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16250 yuan/ton over the weekend, maintaining stability.

This week’s market analysis

The magnesium market remained stable after the Spring Festival holiday in the Year of the Snake, with prices remaining largely stable. Due to the recent end of the Spring Festival holiday, downstream enterprises have resumed work and production one after another, and the market is mainly focused on digesting inventory from before the year, with relatively limited transactions. The factory has received some new orders while executing pre-sale orders from before the year, and the overall inventory pressure is not significant. Until the end of the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, there were few transactions in the market as a whole. Downstream enterprises purchased on demand, and some users with inventory chose to wait and see the market.

Supply and demand side

New orders have been fulfilled one after another after the year, and there is currently limited supply of spot goods. Analysis suggests that due to the slow resumption of work by downstream enterprises and the need to digest pre year inventory, demand growth is limited in the short term, and the possibility of a recovery in the magnesium market is relatively small. However, due to the low inventory pressure in the factory and strong cost support, it is expected that the quotation will remain firm. With the gradual release of demand, the magnesium market is expected to continue to maintain a stable operating trend.

Currently, there is no significant rebound in downstream demand, and there is a lack of clear positive news to boost it. Therefore, it is expected that the magnesium market will not show a significant improvement in the short term. However, considering that the overall inventory pressure in the factory is not high, and the current magnesium price has put the factory in a serious loss making state, it is expected that the quotation will remain firm due to cost support. Meanwhile, with the continued implementation of the storage policy, the difficulty of further reducing magnesium prices is also increasing.

comprehensive analysis

In summary, it is expected that in the coming period, the magnesium market will mainly maintain a stable operating trend, with relatively small fluctuations. The market will closely monitor the follow-up of downstream demand, as well as changes in the raw material market and international trade environment, in order to make more accurate market judgments.

Market Overview: This week, the domestic acrylonitrile spot market prices fluctuated and fell, and downstream industries resisted high raw material prices, resulting in stagnant buying. Under bearish sentiment, suppliers actively shipped. As of February 14th, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is around 11300-11600 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 11000-11500 yuan/ton.

Supply growth: From a news perspective, there is an expected increase in supply, with existing equipment being negatively charged and new production capacity being planned for deployment. As of February 13th, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 76.47%, an increase of 1.35% compared to the same period last week.

Inventory controllable: According to statistics, as of February 12th, the inventory of acrylonitrile factories in China was 37300 tons, an increase of+0.1 million tons from last week, and the industry inventory is still controllable in the short term.

Flat demand: Currently, buying is gradually recovering, but downstream industries have become increasingly resistant to high raw material prices due to losses, resulting in stagnant buying.

Cost wise: International oil prices continue to decline, which is bearish for the market sentiment. And currently, downstream centralized replenishment has ended, and enterprise shipments are tending to be flat, which has a certain degree of suppression on price trends. As of February 13th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 6770-6900 yuan/ton, with average cost support.

Market forecast: Overall, acrylonitrile production profits are considerable, factory production enthusiasm is high, supply side variables still exist, and suppliers are actively shipping under bearish sentiment. Low price offers in the spot market continue to appear, and it is expected that acrylonitrile prices will weakly decline in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the operation of factory facilities and changes in downstream demand.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of February 13th, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 7766.67 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the cyclohexane market remained stable, and the mainstream market price is currently around 7800 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost, the price of pure benzene maintains a strong trend, and there is still short-term port pressure after the holiday. However, some equipment news in the pure benzene market has been boosted recently, and the trend of styrene market is still acceptable. In the short term, the pure benzene range in East China will be consolidated.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is currently insufficient support from the upstream cost side, and downstream demand procurement is running. It is expected that the cyclohexane market will remain stable in the short term.