According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for maleic anhydride has fluctuated and declined this week. As of June 30th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation method maleic anhydride remained at 7130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.11% compared to June 24th at 7210 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply: Wanhua equipment is producing normally, and production will resume in Dafeng Jiangning from July 8th; Recently, the market for maleic anhydride has been mainly consolidating at a low level, with weak and volatile market prices. As of June 30th, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6800 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6100 yuan/ton.

Upstream: The international crude oil market has been fluctuating and rising recently, with a slight increase in n-butane prices. As of June 30th, the price in Shandong is around 5250 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspect: Recently, the prices of the main unsaturated resin factories have remained stable, and unsaturated resin has entered the off-season. Downstream production is limited, and support for unsaturated resin is limited. The overall operating rate of unsaturated resin has declined.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that the recent low level consolidation of the maleic anhydride market is the main trend, with limited transactions; Downstream unsaturated resins have entered the off-season, and the operating rate continues to decline. Purchasing of maleic anhydride is limited, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate at a low level in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of acetic acid has significantly declined this week. As of June 28th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared to June 24th price of 3230 yuan/ton, and an overall decrease of 4.64%.

This week, the price of acetic acid continued to decline, mainly due to strong supply and weak demand, and the bearish mentality of manufacturers, resulting in a continuous decline in acetic acid prices. On the supply side, with the restoration of maintenance equipment and an increase in market supply, enterprises have a clear intention to discharge inventory, and the acetic acid market is operating weakly; On the demand side, downstream performance continues to be sluggish, and the market trading atmosphere is light. On exchange transactions are flat, and the market atmosphere is bearish. Under the supply-demand game, the price of acetic acid has declined during the week.

As of June 28th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ June 24th/ June 28th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton/ -25

North China region/ 3200 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton/ -100

Shandong region/ 3230 yuan/ton/ 3080 yuan/ton/ -150

Jiangsu region/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 2955 yuan/ton/ -95

Zhejiang region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3055 yuan/ton/ -95

The upstream raw material methanol market is operating with a strong trend. As of June 28th, the average price in the domestic market was 2554.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.78% compared to the price of 2485.00 yuan/ton on June 24th. The overall supply of methanol in the market is sufficient, with downstream on-demand procurement being the main focus. The receiving sentiment is weak, and market trading is poor. The futures market closed higher this week, driving up the consolidation of methanol spot prices.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is weak and declining. On June 28th, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5447.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55% compared to the price of 5477.50 yuan/ton on June 24th. The upstream acetic acid market is weak and declining, with a bearish cost outlook for acetic anhydride. At the same time, the acetic anhydride market has sufficient supply, downstream purchases on demand, and limited on exchange trading. The upstream market has driven the consolidation and downward trend of acetic anhydride prices.

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Business Society believes that the main acetic acid factories on the market are currently operating normally, with high capacity utilization, sufficient market supply, and limited downstream demand. Follow up on demand when entering the market, and there is a clear trend of oversupply on the market. At the same time, the confidence of suppliers is insufficient, and the acetic acid quotation continues to decline. It is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will continue to be weak and consolidate, and prices may fluctuate slightly. In the future, attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

In mid to late June, the domestic price of ethyl acetate first rose and then fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of the 27th, the price of ethyl acetate remained at 6250 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.16% during the cycle compared to the price on June 11th. The main reason is weak upstream prices and limited cost support, and the ethyl acetate market is observing and consolidating.

Market analysis: The ethyl acetate market was consolidating in mid to late June. On the supply side, the utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity continues to be at a medium to low level, with no pressure on supplier inventory and manufacturers shipping on demand, so there is currently no production and sales pressure; On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid first rises and then falls, with limited cost support. The upstream market is transmitted to the terminal market, affecting downstream purchasing. The entry into the market requires immediate follow-up. Under the supply and demand game, the price of ethyl acetate in the cycle is affected by the raw material market, which first rises and then falls.

Looking at the future market, the upstream acetic acid price of ethyl acetate continues to decline, and the cost side is affected by bearish factors. The production and sales of ethyl acetate suppliers are relatively balanced, and downstream suppliers follow up on demand. Due to the influence of raw materials, the on-site mentality is unstable. It is expected that the ethyl acetate market will observe and consolidate in the short term, and specific attention will be paid to the price execution of raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers. At present, the mainstream transaction price in the market is between 6100-6350 yuan/ton.

On June 26th, the price of ethylene glycol remained stable

In late June, the price of ethylene glycol rebounded, and on June 26th, the price of ethylene glycol remained stable. According to data from Business Society, as of June 26th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4523.33 yuan/ton, which is 0.09% lower than the average price of 4526.67 yuan/ton in the East China market on June 1st. The prices for each region are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4400-4690 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4450 yuan/ton, and the price range for mainstream manufacturers in Central China is 4300 yuan/ton; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer a spot price of 4500 yuan/ton for external transactions.

On June 26, 2024, the trading price of ethylene glycol basis spread at the port was between -15 and -12, and the futures market was volatile. The basis spread quotation in East China remained relatively stable during the day. At present, the basis of forward contracts remains in a near low and far high pattern. The spot price of ethylene glycol at the port ranges from 4550 to 4580 yuan/ton.

Reduced inventory at ports with low arrivals

This week, there was a significant decrease in port inventory. As of June 24th, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 708500 tons, a decrease of 41100 tons compared to the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on June 20th, which was 749600 tons. On June 25th, the inventory outflow situation in East China was as follows: around 6400 tons of MEG were shipped from the mainstream storage area of Zhangjiagang; About 4200 tons of MEG were shipped from the two mainstream storage areas of Taicang.

June spot forward contract delivery, spot strength

Approaching delivery, there are rumors in the spot market that there will be a delivery, and starting from last Thursday, the ethylene glycol basis spread has been climbing all the way. The expected receipt of goods, combined with the strengthening of the futures market, has led to a surge in the spot price of ethylene glycol. Some oil to ethylene glycol manufacturers in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions mainly contract shipments. Currently, orders are scheduled until November, with an external quotation of 2409 contracts+30, and the market port cargo’s July basis quotation range is between -12 to+3 (2409 contracts); Port contracts are near low and far high.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of activated carbon was 11933 yuan/ton on June 17th, and the price at the end of the month was 11866 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56%.

The quotes from domestic activated carbon manufacturers are stable, with some prices falling, and the market transaction atmosphere is lukewarm. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranges from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton, and the downstream market is currently in the stage of destocking, with a focus on post holiday market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in areas such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially gold charcoal, which receives more inquiries from the African market; The supply of fruit shell charcoal with medium to low indicators is smoother. There is a recent rebound in imported carbonized materials, and the industry can pay more attention to it.

Prediction: There is no significant increase in trading volume in the activated carbon market, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.