1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, the price of bromine is in a weak trend. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 22660 yuan/ton. On July 9th, the average market price was 20900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.77% and an increase of 14.84% compared to the same period last year. On July 8th, the bromine commodity index was 74.04, a decrease of 1.4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 69.80% from the highest point in the cycle of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 25.66% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

In early July, the price of bromine was weak, and currently the mainstream market price in Shandong is around 20000-21000 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, various bromine manufacturers are currently operating normally, producing seawater bromine in large quantities. Imported bromine has gradually arrived at the port, increasing bromine production and impacting the domestic market. The production of downstream flame retardants for bromine is average, and the industry is operating weakly. The demand for agriculture and intermediates is average. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have risen, with an average market price of 1206.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and an average market price of 1293.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, with a price increase of 7.18%, an increase of 77.77% compared to the same period last year. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

It is predicted that the price of bromine will be weak in the near future. Although the upstream sulfur price has risen, the downstream flame retardant production of bromine is average, and the industry is operating in a weak market. The demand for agriculture and intermediates is average. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that bromine may continue to operate in a weak market in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

There is a significant upward trend in the price of ethylene glycol in stages

In mid to late June, the price of ethylene glycol rebounded and continued to maintain a strong upward trend. According to data from Business Society, as of July 8th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4665 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.72% compared to the average price of 4497.5 yuan/ton in the East China market on June 19th. The prices for each region are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4600-4850 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4600 yuan/ton, while the mainstream spot manufacturers in Central China have a price range of 4500 yuan/ton for external execution; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer a spot price of 4600 yuan/ton for external transactions.

On July 8, 2024, the spot basis quotation for ethylene glycol at the port was close to the forward basis.

At present, the price of coal to ethylene glycol is relatively low, with a price range of 4000-4250 yuan/ton, including taxes, leaving the factory.

Port cargo capital speculation is the main reason for this round of upward trend

The first wave of upward trend from December 2023 to March 2024 due to market speculation on port inventory levels was due to the decrease in explicit port inventory from 1.2 million to 700000 tons, and the market price rising from around 4000 yuan/ton to 4800 yuan/ton. Recently, due to the downstream short fiber market, manufacturers have joined forces to boost prices, and ethylene glycol has also started to hype up inventory news. Currently, inventory has decreased from 740000 tons in the early stage to 670000 tons, and the price of ethylene glycol has also increased from 4400 yuan/ton to over 4700 yuan/ton, with significant results. At present, the price is close to the previous high, and the sustainability of the speculation needs further observation.

Weak actual demand for polyester constrains continued upward space

Returning to actual supply and demand, the overall production and sales of the downstream polyester industry are weak. The production and sales of polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are around 30%, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices. However, there is not much actual terminal procurement, and it is difficult for high-level raw materials to rise. The downward transmission of pressure is hindered, and some downstream terminal enterprises mainly maintain early orders and replenish inventory for urgent needs. The terminal demand is not strong, and the raw material side unilaterally increases prices, resulting in poor sustainability.

Domestic production of ethylene glycol rebounds

At present, the price of ethylene glycol has risen to a relatively high level, and the domestic operating rate has begun to recover. In addition, there is an expectation of an increase in the amount of ethylene glycol arriving at ports in China and abroad in July, and there is a short-term growth expectation on the supply side.

Cautious and optimistic outlook on the future market of ethylene glycol

At present, the price has risen to a relatively high level, and the inventory factor in the early stage has basically been realized at the price level. Currently, downstream polyester is reducing production and maintaining prices, coupled with lower than expected terminal demand in the weaving industry, the industry is weak, and demand is not strong; There is an expectation of an increase in the supply side, and in the short term, the price of ethylene glycol is at a stage high state. The future market is cautious and optimistic.

In June, the market for ethyl acetate was weak and volatile, with price trends fluctuating and decreasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 30th, the average production price of ethyl acetate was 6250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.64% compared to the price of 6290 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Due to limited cost support and insufficient downstream demand, the price of ethyl acetate has fallen.

Market analysis: This month, the market price of ethyl acetate has decreased, with the main upstream acetic acid market rising first and then falling. Insufficient support for raw materials has led to a weak decline in the price of ethyl acetate; In the second half of the month, the upstream market is weak and the cost side is bearish. The upstream market is transmitted to the terminal market, affecting downstream purchasing. Downstream acceptance of high priced ethyl acetate is average, and market trading is limited. Under the supply-demand game, the price of ethyl acetate follows suit.

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid market of Shengyishe, as of June 30th, the price was 3080 yuan/ton, which is a 2.22% decrease compared to the beginning of the month’s acetic acid price of 3150 yuan/ton. The price of acetic acid on the raw material side first rose and then fell, with limited cost support. The acetic acid market continued to spread to the terminal, affecting the downstream trend of ethyl ester.

In the future, the upstream acetic acid price of ethyl acetate is weak and stable, with insufficient cost support. The main factories have poor shipments, and the supply has accumulated. The downstream side follows up as needed, and the market is bearish. It is expected that the ethyl acetate market will continue to decline in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the price execution of raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for maleic anhydride has fluctuated and declined this week. As of June 30th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation method maleic anhydride remained at 7130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.11% compared to June 24th at 7210 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply: Wanhua equipment is producing normally, and production will resume in Dafeng Jiangning from July 8th; Recently, the market for maleic anhydride has been mainly consolidating at a low level, with weak and volatile market prices. As of June 30th, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6800 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6100 yuan/ton.

Upstream: The international crude oil market has been fluctuating and rising recently, with a slight increase in n-butane prices. As of June 30th, the price in Shandong is around 5250 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspect: Recently, the prices of the main unsaturated resin factories have remained stable, and unsaturated resin has entered the off-season. Downstream production is limited, and support for unsaturated resin is limited. The overall operating rate of unsaturated resin has declined.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that the recent low level consolidation of the maleic anhydride market is the main trend, with limited transactions; Downstream unsaturated resins have entered the off-season, and the operating rate continues to decline. Purchasing of maleic anhydride is limited, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate at a low level in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of acetic acid has significantly declined this week. As of June 28th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared to June 24th price of 3230 yuan/ton, and an overall decrease of 4.64%.

This week, the price of acetic acid continued to decline, mainly due to strong supply and weak demand, and the bearish mentality of manufacturers, resulting in a continuous decline in acetic acid prices. On the supply side, with the restoration of maintenance equipment and an increase in market supply, enterprises have a clear intention to discharge inventory, and the acetic acid market is operating weakly; On the demand side, downstream performance continues to be sluggish, and the market trading atmosphere is light. On exchange transactions are flat, and the market atmosphere is bearish. Under the supply-demand game, the price of acetic acid has declined during the week.

As of June 28th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ June 24th/ June 28th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton/ -25

North China region/ 3200 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton/ -100

Shandong region/ 3230 yuan/ton/ 3080 yuan/ton/ -150

Jiangsu region/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 2955 yuan/ton/ -95

Zhejiang region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3055 yuan/ton/ -95

The upstream raw material methanol market is operating with a strong trend. As of June 28th, the average price in the domestic market was 2554.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.78% compared to the price of 2485.00 yuan/ton on June 24th. The overall supply of methanol in the market is sufficient, with downstream on-demand procurement being the main focus. The receiving sentiment is weak, and market trading is poor. The futures market closed higher this week, driving up the consolidation of methanol spot prices.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is weak and declining. On June 28th, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5447.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55% compared to the price of 5477.50 yuan/ton on June 24th. The upstream acetic acid market is weak and declining, with a bearish cost outlook for acetic anhydride. At the same time, the acetic anhydride market has sufficient supply, downstream purchases on demand, and limited on exchange trading. The upstream market has driven the consolidation and downward trend of acetic anhydride prices.

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Business Society believes that the main acetic acid factories on the market are currently operating normally, with high capacity utilization, sufficient market supply, and limited downstream demand. Follow up on demand when entering the market, and there is a clear trend of oversupply on the market. At the same time, the confidence of suppliers is insufficient, and the acetic acid quotation continues to decline. It is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will continue to be weak and consolidate, and prices may fluctuate slightly. In the future, attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.