This week, the price of phthalic anhydride has been strong and stabilizing

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the domestic phthalic anhydride market has stabilized this week. As of July 12th, the price of phthalic anhydride in the phthalic anhydride process was 8087.50 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of 8087.50 yuan/ton on July 5th; Compared to July 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose by 0.47% to 8050 yuan/ton. Domestic neighboring phthalic anhydride is priced at 7800-8100 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while domestic naphthalene phthalic anhydride is priced at 7450-7600 yuan/ton before leaving the factory.

Supply side: tight supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is temporarily stable, with a production rate of about 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is stable, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. This week, the price of industrial naphthalene fluctuated and fell, and the market for naphthalene based phthalic anhydride fluctuated and stabilized. The market for ortho phthalic anhydride also stabilized. This week, the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and stabilized.

Demand side: The trend of on-demand procurement in the DOP market is fluctuating and declining

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 12th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9912.50 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 0.75% compared to the DOP price of 9987.50 yuan/ton on July 5th last weekend; Compared to Monday, July 8th, the price of 10000 yuan/ton fluctuated and fell by 0.88%; Compared to the DOP price of 9862.50 yuan/ton on July 1st, it first rose and then fell, with an increase of 0.51%. The market for phthalic anhydride, a raw material for plasticizers, has fluctuated and stabilized, while the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen. The cost of plasticizers has also decreased, and the price of plasticizers has fluctuated and fallen this week. In the off-season downstream, manufacturers’ production has decreased, and the demand for plasticizers is poor, which has led to a decrease in support for phthalic anhydride demand and increased downward pressure on phthalic anhydride.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the recent trend of crude oil prices has been strong and consolidated, the price of ortho xylene has stabilized strongly, and the cost support of phthalic anhydride still exists; In terms of demand, the downstream DOP market has fluctuated and fallen, and the demand for plasticizers is poor. It is expected that the market for phthalic anhydride will stabilize in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of July 11th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4250 yuan/ton. The DMF market price was mainly weak, with an overall price drop of 2.07%. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4300 yuan/ton, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced. Enterprises mainly offer discounts and take orders, and the overall market negotiation focus is stable.

2、 Market analysis

The overall market price of DMF is mainly operating in a narrow range and weak trend. Currently, downstream demand is poor, with a mainstream price range of 4300/ton. Manufacturers are actively shipping and logistics are smooth, but downstream demand is weak. Currently, the cost side of DMF is slightly supported, and it will maintain stable, medium, and strong operation in the near future. Downstream enterprises urgently need to purchase and operate.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the DMF market will maintain its current trend in the short term, with mainstream prices remaining at 4700-4800 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 10th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 7875.00 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as the price at the beginning of the month.

Since July, the price of raw material liquid chlorine has mainly increased, while the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated narrowly. The price of raw material glycerol has risen, and the cost support is strong. Production enterprises mainly focus on delivering orders, while the price of propylene method is strong. Downstream small orders require follow-up, and the mentality of buying high priced raw materials is still cautious. The overall market atmosphere is still good, and the attitude of price support is strong.

Raw material propylene:

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price for propylene on July 9th was 7128.25, a decrease of 0.07% compared to July 1st (7133.25). Recently, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated and stabilized within a narrow range, providing some support for the epichlorohydrin market.

Future Market Forecast:

The current market is experiencing a decrease in low-priced goods, and businesses are mainly inclined to hold up prices. However, due to the traditional off-season in the terminal industry, the demand performance may be average. It is expected that the market for epichlorohydrin will remain strong in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, the price of bromine is in a weak trend. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 22660 yuan/ton. On July 9th, the average market price was 20900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.77% and an increase of 14.84% compared to the same period last year. On July 8th, the bromine commodity index was 74.04, a decrease of 1.4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 69.80% from the highest point in the cycle of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 25.66% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

In early July, the price of bromine was weak, and currently the mainstream market price in Shandong is around 20000-21000 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, various bromine manufacturers are currently operating normally, producing seawater bromine in large quantities. Imported bromine has gradually arrived at the port, increasing bromine production and impacting the domestic market. The production of downstream flame retardants for bromine is average, and the industry is operating weakly. The demand for agriculture and intermediates is average. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have risen, with an average market price of 1206.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and an average market price of 1293.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, with a price increase of 7.18%, an increase of 77.77% compared to the same period last year. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

It is predicted that the price of bromine will be weak in the near future. Although the upstream sulfur price has risen, the downstream flame retardant production of bromine is average, and the industry is operating in a weak market. The demand for agriculture and intermediates is average. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that bromine may continue to operate in a weak market in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

There is a significant upward trend in the price of ethylene glycol in stages

In mid to late June, the price of ethylene glycol rebounded and continued to maintain a strong upward trend. According to data from Business Society, as of July 8th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4665 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.72% compared to the average price of 4497.5 yuan/ton in the East China market on June 19th. The prices for each region are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4600-4850 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4600 yuan/ton, while the mainstream spot manufacturers in Central China have a price range of 4500 yuan/ton for external execution; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer a spot price of 4600 yuan/ton for external transactions.

On July 8, 2024, the spot basis quotation for ethylene glycol at the port was close to the forward basis.

At present, the price of coal to ethylene glycol is relatively low, with a price range of 4000-4250 yuan/ton, including taxes, leaving the factory.

Port cargo capital speculation is the main reason for this round of upward trend

The first wave of upward trend from December 2023 to March 2024 due to market speculation on port inventory levels was due to the decrease in explicit port inventory from 1.2 million to 700000 tons, and the market price rising from around 4000 yuan/ton to 4800 yuan/ton. Recently, due to the downstream short fiber market, manufacturers have joined forces to boost prices, and ethylene glycol has also started to hype up inventory news. Currently, inventory has decreased from 740000 tons in the early stage to 670000 tons, and the price of ethylene glycol has also increased from 4400 yuan/ton to over 4700 yuan/ton, with significant results. At present, the price is close to the previous high, and the sustainability of the speculation needs further observation.

Weak actual demand for polyester constrains continued upward space

Returning to actual supply and demand, the overall production and sales of the downstream polyester industry are weak. The production and sales of polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are around 30%, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices. However, there is not much actual terminal procurement, and it is difficult for high-level raw materials to rise. The downward transmission of pressure is hindered, and some downstream terminal enterprises mainly maintain early orders and replenish inventory for urgent needs. The terminal demand is not strong, and the raw material side unilaterally increases prices, resulting in poor sustainability.

Domestic production of ethylene glycol rebounds

At present, the price of ethylene glycol has risen to a relatively high level, and the domestic operating rate has begun to recover. In addition, there is an expectation of an increase in the amount of ethylene glycol arriving at ports in China and abroad in July, and there is a short-term growth expectation on the supply side.

Cautious and optimistic outlook on the future market of ethylene glycol

At present, the price has risen to a relatively high level, and the inventory factor in the early stage has basically been realized at the price level. Currently, downstream polyester is reducing production and maintaining prices, coupled with lower than expected terminal demand in the weaving industry, the industry is weak, and demand is not strong; There is an expectation of an increase in the supply side, and in the short term, the price of ethylene glycol is at a stage high state. The future market is cautious and optimistic.