According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA price has shown a fluctuating downward trend since July. As of July 22, the average spot market price in East China was 5901 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.26% from the beginning of the month.

Recently, there have been many restarts of PTA facilities, leading to increased expectations of loose supply. The operating rate of domestic industries has risen to over 84%.

In terms of inventory, as of July 19th, the total social inventory of PTA was 2.26 million tons, an increase of 40000 tons compared to the previous period, but it is still in a historically low position compared to the same period, and there is currently no pressure to accumulate inventory. The No. 3 typhoon of this year, “Gemei”, was generated in the ocean east of the Philippines at 2:00 p.m. on the 20th. It is expected to gradually approach the eastern sea surface of Taiwan, China on the 24th, and will have a significant impact on the eastern region of China and the coastal sea surface on the 25th and 26th. Typhoon weather may lead to shortages in ports and mainstream downstream factories, causing temporary tension in the spot market or driving up prices.

From a cost perspective, negative factors in the crude oil market resonate with price declines, weakening the cost support for PTA. In addition, with the implementation of production reduction plans by some downstream polyester factories, market concerns about PTA demand continue to ferment. The terminal textile market is experiencing a deep off-season, with a shortage of orders and significant inventory pressure. Although the atmosphere of order inquiries has slightly increased during the autumn and winter seasons, the progress of order placement is slow, and the willingness to stock up is weak, resulting in the weaving industry operating at around 65%.

Business analysts believe that in the short term, attention still needs to be paid to the restart of PTA plants, the implementation of downstream polyester production cuts, and the impact of typhoon weather.

This week (7.12-7.19), the domestic price of ethyl acetate first rose and then fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 19th, the price of ethyl acetate was 6250.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.08% compared to the price of 6183.33 yuan/ton on July 12th. The main reason for the volatile operation of ethyl acetate market is the rise in upstream prices, the positive impact on cost, and limited downstream demand.

Market analysis: This week, the ethyl acetate market has shown a strong consolidation trend. On the supply side, the utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity is low, and there is no pressure on supplier inventory, leading to a wait-and-see attitude among industry players; On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid remained high and strong, with favorable cost support, driving up the price of ethyl ester. However, the mentality of acetic acid weakened in the later stage, and the upstream market was transmitted to the end market, affecting downstream purchasing. Under the supply-demand game, the price of ethyl acetate first rose and then fell during the week.

Looking at the future, there is currently a downward trend in the upstream acetic acid price of ethyl acetate, with weakened cost support and no inventory pressure on ethyl acetate suppliers. However, downstream demand is limited, and the market sentiment is unstable due to the impact of raw materials. It is expected that the ethyl acetate market will remain stagnant and consolidate in the later stage. Specific attention will be paid to the price execution of raw materials such as acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers. At present, the mainstream transaction price in the market is in the range of 6050-6450 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 18th, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 2385 yuan/ton, which is 2.37% lower than the reference average price of 2443 yuan/ton on July 12th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market prices have been running weakly. As of July 18th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 2220-2260 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 2260 yuan/ton, and in Henan region it is around 2240 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

In terms of supply, the urea market currently has a relatively sufficient supply, with oversupply being the main factor. In terms of demand, agricultural demand maintains essential procurement, while industrial demand is low. The operating rate and market situation of downstream compound fertilizers remain stable, and the demand for urea remains stable.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the urea market has been weak and declining recently, with transaction prices approaching the lower end. At present, there is no positive news in the market, and the upward trend of urea is weak. It is expected that the domestic urea market prices will continue to weaken and consolidate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has continued to be weak and slightly consolidated in recent days (7.8-7.17). As of July 17, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 14082 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.59% from 14166 yuan/ton on July 8. On the one hand, there is not much pressure on raw material prices and supply, and on the other hand, downstream consumers are resistant to high priced sources of goods, resulting in a narrow consolidation of the market as a whole.

On the one hand, in recent days (7.8-7.17), the increase in raw material supply in domestic and foreign raw material production areas has been somewhat hindered by precipitation. The price of natural rubber raw materials has remained stable, and the cost has provided some support for the domestic natural rubber market. As of July 17th, the price of Thai glue was 64.00 Thai baht/kg, slightly lower than the price in early July; As of the 17th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production areas is around 13600 yuan/ton, which is basically stable compared to early July.

On the other hand, natural rubber inventory is slowly decreasing, and the overall market is consolidating narrowly. As of July 14, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 477900 tons, a decrease of 3.07% compared to the previous period.

Downstream tire production has remained stable for the time being, with demand facing strong support from the natural rubber market. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources, leading to a decline in natural rubber prices from their high levels. As of July 17th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 6.20%.

Market forecast: The current domestic and international supply of raw materials is gradually increasing, and the price of natural rubber raw materials is falling from a high level; In addition, downstream tire companies have temporarily stabilized their production and are cautious about purchasing high priced goods; Overall, the natural rubber market is expected to experience a narrow consolidation in the short term after a recent high-level decline.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8591 yuan/ton on July 8th, and the average price was 8485 yuan/ton on July 16th, with a price drop of 1.23% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10537 yuan/ton on July 8th, and the average price was 10237 yuan/ton on July 16th, with a price drop of 2.85% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8450 yuan/ton on July 8th, and the average price was 8275 yuan/ton on July 16th, with a price drop of 2.07% during this period.

Recently, the overall trend of polyethylene is weak, and the quotation continues to decline. Among them, the decline in high-voltage products is significant, with a strong trend in the early stage and a continuous decline in prices recently. The willingness of production enterprises to raise prices is gradually weakening. Part of the maintenance equipment has restarted, and there is an expected increase in the supply side, coupled with an increase in imports. Polyethylene demand is in the off-season, downstream production is low, and market order follow-up is limited; The quotations of production enterprises have declined, and the trading market has followed suit. We are cautious in offering discounts for shipments.

On July 16th, the Dalian Commodity Exchange polyethylene L2409 contract opened at 8370 yuan and closed at 8379 yuan, a decrease of 1 yuan, with a maximum of 8396 yuan and a minimum of 8351 yuan, a decrease of 0.01%. Recently, the polyethylene futures market has been weak and declining, which is bearish for the spot market.

There is an expectation of an increase on the supply side; The demand side is in the off-season, and the trend of polyethylene futures market is weak. Last week, oil prices fluctuated weakly, and under the pressure of multiple negative factors, it is expected that polyethylene may mainly fluctuate weakly.