According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall toluene market has been declining recently (8.2-8.9). On August 5th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7380 yuan/ton, and on August 9th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.49% during the period. This cycle, the toluene market continued to operate weakly, with market prices fluctuating downward. The decline in crude oil prices during the week has dragged down market sentiment, and the overall market atmosphere is bearish. The overall demand is weak, and the enthusiasm for purchasing in the gasoline blending industry is low. The enthusiasm for downstream market entry is also low, coupled with the weakening macro situation, which has led to a strong market atmosphere. As of August 9th, the mainstream quotation range in East China is between 7220-7250 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price reduction of 70-100 yuan/ton compared to last week.

On the cost side: During this cycle, the crude oil market has declined. On the one hand, the OPEC+production reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day will be implemented until the end of September, but from October onwards, depending on market conditions, production may gradually increase, which is bearish for the crude oil market. On the other hand, the poor non farm payroll data and rising unemployment rate released by the United States in July, coupled with poor global economic data, have intensified market concerns about the demand outlook and increased negative pressure on the psychological level, leading to a decline in the crude oil market trend. Overall, the crude oil market has significantly declined during the cycle, with a negative rate of change in crude oil. As of August 9th, international crude oil futures have risen. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $76.84 per barrel, an increase of $0.65 or 0.9%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $79.66 per barrel, an increase of $0.50 or 0.6%.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation has been partially reduced this week, with slight differences in the extent of reduction across regions, and the reduction is relatively small. At present, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of equipment is stable, the products are mostly for personal use, and the production and sales are stable. Among them, the East China Company quoted 7150 yuan/ton, the North China Company quoted 7350 yuan/ton, the South China Company quoted 7200-7250 yuan/ton, and the Central China Company quoted 7200 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On August 12th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price being 8500 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably and selling normally. As of August 8th, CFR China’s closing price was 983 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 22 US dollars/ton from last week.

On Friday (August 9th), the Asian toluene market was closed due to a public holiday. The closing price for August 8th was $884-886 USD/ton FOB Korea; The closing price of CFR China in September was 872-874 US dollars per ton.

Market forecast: The recent trend of crude oil on the cost side is weak, with limited support for the toluene market. Affected by the macro atmosphere, the overall atmosphere of the toluene market has been weak recently, with low market operation intentions and limited trading. Although the price is at a lower level this year and some regions have some intention to replenish inventory, the market atmosphere is still acceptable. But overall, downstream demand is still weak, with insufficient demand support. Overall, there are still negative factors in the toluene market, and there is a strong supply-demand game mentality. It is expected that the short-term trend will be dominated by narrow fluctuations. Focus on downstream replenishment in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of pure benzene has recently fallen, with a price of 8834.67 yuan/ton on August 1st; On August 9th, the price was 8544.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24% from the beginning of the month and an increase of 8.48% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: Recently, the overall trend of pure benzene has continued to decline. At present, the inventory of pure benzene ports is declining. The inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu Province is 35000 tons, a decrease of 4800 tons or 12.06% compared to the previous inventory of 39800 tons. As of August 9th, the mainstream spot price of pure benzene in Shandong market is 8500 yuan/ton. At present, downstream procurement is weak, market transactions are poor, and the pure benzene market is weak and declining.

This month, the price of pure benzene from Sinopec has dropped to 8400 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspects

This week, the styrene market prices fluctuated and consolidated. In August, there were many maintenance visits to the styrene plant. On the 6th, the 500000 tons/year styrene plant in Dagu, Tianjin was shut down for maintenance for one month. The recent rise in the styrene market has been weak, and spot demand is mainly driven by rigid demand. The styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports has decreased, and the styrene market has fluctuated and consolidated. At present, the transaction price of styrene in Jiangsu region is 9460 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

Crude oil: International oil prices have risen. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 09 rose $0.96 per barrel or 1.28% at 76.19; ICE Brent Oil Futures 10 contract 79.16 rose $0.83 per barrel or 1.06%. The main contract for Chinese INE crude oil futures, 2409, rose 9.5 to 555.4 yuan/barrel, and rose 8.6 to 564 yuan/barrel in night trading.

Crude oil prices are fluctuating in a high range, with good cost support. The inventory of pure benzene at ports has slightly decreased, and pure benzene may rise slightly in the short term. We are waiting to see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, since August, terminal demand has been sluggish, and the hydrogen peroxide market has been weakly declining. On August 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 913 yuan/ton. On August 8th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 886 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.92% in price.

Low terminal demand, hydrogen peroxide market continues to weaken

Starting from August, due to poor terminal demand, the purchase of hydrogen peroxide by printing and paper manufacturers has decreased, resulting in a weak upward trend in the hydrogen peroxide market and an overall downward trend. The mainstream domestic quotation is 800-960 yuan/ton. Among them, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region is about 900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region is 800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton, and the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui region is about 960 yuan/ton, with stable prices.

Business Society Chemical Analysts believe that after mid August, the operating rate of the printing and paper industry will decline, and the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals will remain sluggish, putting pressure on the upward trend of the hydrogen peroxide market in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 7th, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6490 yuan/ton, which is 0.15% higher than the reference average price of 6480 yuan/ton on August 1st.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 7th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6750 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.50% compared to the reference average price of 6716 yuan/ton on August 1st.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic phosphoric acid market has been in a state of price stagnation and consolidation. As of August 7th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6350-6600 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% industrial phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6400-6600 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6750 yuan/ton.

Cost end

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the supply of yellow phosphorus in the market is tight, and market prices have risen. Yellow phosphorus enterprise owners have issued preliminary orders. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement has increased, market transactions have improved, and enterprises are mainly reluctant to sell. It is expected that the short-term yellow phosphorus market will continue to remain strong.

Raw material phosphate rock market. This week, the price of phosphate rock market has been running steadily, with tight supply in some areas and stable market demand. Downstream demand remains mainly driven by essential purchases. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

This week, the supply and demand of the phosphoric acid market have been weak. The spot supply of phosphoric acid is tight, and market inventory is limited. The terminal demand is relatively weak, with downstream urgent replenishment as the main focus, and the market transaction atmosphere is average.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has been consolidating after the recent rise in prices. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has increased, leading to an increase in cost support. Downstream procurement is more cautious, with a focus on low price transactions. It is expected that the short-term market price of phosphoric acid will experience a narrow consolidation and operation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market continued to consolidate weakly in early August, with prices of various brand products fluctuating narrowly. As of the afternoon of August 6th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders was around 7807.14 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase or decrease of -0.55%.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

At the end of last month, the international crude oil market experienced frequent fluctuations, which affected market confidence and led to a decline in prices. Due to the unexpected continuous decline in US crude oil inventories and the escalating tensions in the Middle East, many industry players are bullish on the future. At the same time, after the previous price loosening, there was trading volume, and OPEC+’s stance on reducing production was firm. The expected rise in international oil prices is favorable for PP. The flow rate of downstream propylene sources is generally average, and prices have fluctuated and adjusted overall. In terms of propane, due to the rise in liquefied gas prices, propane has been pulled up and strengthened, while PDH production costs have improved. Overall, there has been a slight improvement in the support for PP from various raw materials recently.

Supply side:

At the beginning of August, the load level of domestic PP enterprises reached an average of over 70% of the previous operating level. Recently, there have been fewer short repair messages compared to resumption of work, leading to an expected increase in supply. The current industry load is around 75%. The production level is generally stable, the inventory of wire drawing materials has increased, and the factory pricing of enterprises has been narrowly lowered. At present, the on-site supply of goods remains abundant, and the supply pressure is stable with some increase.

In terms of demand:

At the beginning of August, there was no improvement in the demand side of PP, and the overall load of terminal enterprises remained stable at a low level. Among them, the consumption of woven bags such as fertilizers and cement is at a low season level, and the operating rate of plastic weaving enterprises is low and narrow, with weak enthusiasm for replenishing inventory. Due to the high raw material prices and slow cost transfer, the direction of membrane enterprises has resulted in low profit margins, leading to replenishment operations centered around essential needs. The comprehensive operating rate of injection molding enterprises has also fallen at a low level. The trading atmosphere in the downstream market of PP is generally average, with limited new orders and mostly pre delivery contracts. The demand side has poor support for the PP market.

Future forecast

Recently, there has been a narrow decline in the domestic PP market prices. From a fundamental perspective, the comprehensive support of upstream raw materials for PP has slightly rebounded, and the off-season market on the demand side is difficult to change. At the same time, there is a trend of increasing supply and demand in the future. In August, there is a demand for moving warehouses and changing months in the market, which activates the entry of funds and drives the basis to strengthen. Although some spot trading sentiment has been activated, there is poor trading on the market, with new orders trading around the low-end position, resulting in significant resistance to price increases. Overall, it is expected that the PP market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.