This week (9.23-9.27), the domestic price of ethyl acetate continued to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 27th, the price of ethyl acetate was 6066.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.66% compared to the beginning of the week price of 6026.67 yuan/ton. Due to the favorable support of downstream demand and the positive attitude of suppliers, the price of ethyl acetate has slightly increased.

Market analysis: This week, the ethyl acetate market is trending towards strong consolidation. On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid remains stable and the cost support is still acceptable; On the demand side, downstream companies are actively stocking up before the holiday, and enterprise factory shipments are improving. Market quotations are rising, while the supply of ethyl acetate in the market is tight. Upstream companies are observing steadily, and the market mentality is strong. The market for ethyl acetate has risen during the week.

In the future, the upstream acetic acid market for ethyl acetate will remain stable, with little impact on costs, and the ethyl acetate market will adopt a wait-and-see attitude; On the supply side, the utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity is not high, and there is currently no inventory pressure affecting it; The short-term demand support from downstream is good, and the market sentiment is optimistic. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will continue to be strong and consolidate before the holiday. Specific attention should be paid to changes in the upstream market and downstream follow-up.

The price of ethylene glycol decreased in September

The price of ethylene glycol began to decline in September. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of September 26th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.28% from September 1st. The prices in each region are as follows:

On September 26, 2024, the operating price of ethylene glycol at the port was between 4500-4540 yuan/ton, and the spot contract basis slightly increased during the day. This week, the paper cargo basis quotation was+38 to+43; In October, the base price quotation will be+38 to+43 yuan/ton; The base price for November is+42 to+46 yuan/ton.

On September 26th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4180-4300 yuan/ton, including taxes.

On September 25, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $544/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $535/ton.

List of Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory Data for September

As of September 26, 2024, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 553400 tons, a decrease of 119900 tons compared to the total spot inventory of 673300 tons on August 29.

On September 25, 2024, the main flow storage area of Zhangjiagang Port shipped about 9100 tons of ethylene glycol, while the two main flow storage areas of Taicang shipped about 5450 tons of ethylene glycol.

Overview of Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals

Inventory changes: The absolute inventory of ethylene glycol at the port remains relatively low, with continuous destocking in the early stages. This week, inventory has slightly rebounded, mainly due to the delayed arrival of ships caused by typhoon weather in the early stages.

Device dynamics: The restart time of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Plant has been postponed to October; Zhejiang Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, Shenghong Refining and Chemical and other facilities have been restarted; The load of the 1.8 million ton plant in Shaanxi has gradually returned to normal operation from 70%, and subsequent plants will restart one after another. The industry’s production will fluctuate and rebound. A 300000 ton synthetic gas plant in Inner Mongolia is expected to produce around the end of September.

Downstream polyester plant: The recovery of the plant was relatively concentrated this week. After a plant in Jiangyin was shut down due to a typhoon in mid month, it has already recovered to a higher load this week. In addition, other plants have been opened for maintenance or increased in load.

Future expectations

Driven by favorable domestic macro conditions, the raw material sector has seen a significant increase, and the polyester sector as a whole has rebounded. In addition, inventory is at a relatively low level, prices have fallen below the previous volatility range, and market competition has intensified.

On the demand side, there may be a peak season that falls short of expectations, resulting in limited improvement in demand. At present, macro factors have a significant impact on prices, and it is expected that ethylene glycol prices will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

Product Name: Styrene

Latest price: 9036 yuan/ton on September 25th.

Analysis: According to data from Business Society, the styrene market is still weak today. The overall trading atmosphere is light, downstream factories are cautious in their procurement, market confidence is insufficient, and domestic styrene market prices have been lowered. It is expected that the styrene spot market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market has been weakly consolidated recently, with prices of various brand products experiencing a narrow decline. As of September 24th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7571.43 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -2.75% compared to the beginning of the month.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of international crude oil, the previous peak oil season in the United States has ended, and the crude oil market was under pressure and fluctuated in the first half of September. The unexpected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve after the holiday has affected the narrow rebound of oil prices, and the upstream support of PP in the far end still exists. The consumption of propylene has contracted due to the decrease in downstream production, resulting in poor shipment performance and limited improvement in market momentum. After the price fell, it consolidated and the wait-and-see sentiment intensified. In the early stage, domestic supply of methanol recovered, and prices fell narrowly. The price of propane is mainly sideways, with stable fundamentals and positive expectations for the future market. The strength of cost support for PDH production and methanol to PP production is mutually apparent. Overall, in mid September, various raw materials were struggling to support PP, with moderate strength.

Supply side:

Recently, the load level of domestic PP enterprises has continued the pattern of large stability and small increase in the early stage. Some facilities resumed work around the weekend, and the industry load has narrowly increased to around 77%. The maintenance in the future market is relatively intensive, with maintenance plans from companies such as Daxie Petrochemical and Fujian United, resulting in an overall downward trend in supply. At present, the commercial inventory of PP in China is stable at over 760000 tons, which has accumulated compared to before, and the on-site supply is abundant. Overall, the supply side provides average support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

The heating rate of the low PP demand side in September remained at a relatively slow level. The load on terminal enterprises has increased, and the consumption of woven bags such as fertilizers and cement has increased. The willingness of plastic weaving enterprises to build warehouses has also increased narrowly. However, orders from film companies have weakened to some extent due to the contraction of pre holiday stocking consumption. However, the macro commodity market sentiment has improved, and the market momentum has been boosted by it. The demand side still provides sufficient support for PP spot goods.

Future forecast

In late September, the domestic PP market prices were relatively weak. Fundamentally speaking, the comprehensive support of upstream raw materials for PP is average, and the consumption volume during the peak season continues to slowly rise. The Fed’s interest rate hike also benefits macroeconomic drivers. The current positive market guidance still needs time to be implemented. With the National Day holiday approaching, there are expectations of holiday economy and policy guidance supporting the market, which is expected to alleviate the downward pressure on PP prices and even show signs of recovery.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall trend of mixed xylene market has been declining recently (9.16-9.23). On September 16th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 6260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.28% from 6180 yuan/ton on September 23rd. The mixed xylene market is still operating weakly in this cycle, with overall market prices. As of September 23, the mainstream price range for xylene in the East China region was 6000-6050 yuan/ton in the morning, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week. Although crude oil prices have risen during the cycle, which has given the market a certain boost, the Shandong region has been affected by poor demand during the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, and local refining companies have lowered their ex factory quotations, resulting in a low mentality in the spot market and a strong downstream pressure mentality, leading to a weak overall market operation. The overall market in other regions has also been affected, shifting from rising to falling.

Cost wise: The international oil price market first fell and then rose. As of the 19th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.95 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.88 per barrel. The crude oil market has started to decline in this cycle, and this news is negative for international oil prices due to the easing of tensions in the Middle East. Global crude oil demand fell short of expectations, coupled with the end of the peak oil season in the United States, dragging down the crude oil market and causing a decline in crude oil market prices. The rise in crude oil market prices in the later stage of this cycle, coupled with the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, has boosted the crude oil market. Looking ahead, the current geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States has ended, and global economic data has performed poorly. However, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts have boosted the oil market, and the crude oil market is mainly volatile.

Supply side: During this cycle, most of Sinopec’s xylene quotations have been lowered. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotations remain unchanged from the previous day. As of September 23rd, East China Company quoted 6100 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6100-6150 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6300-6400 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6100 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The phthalic anhydride and xylene markets are operating weakly

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 20th, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by phthalic anhydride was 7337.50 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on September 18th at 7337.50 yuan/ton, but decreased by 0.34% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on September 14th before the holiday at 7362.50 yuan/ton. This week, the price of ortho xylene is 7400 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to before the holiday. The cost of neighboring phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, and the phthalic anhydride market is stabilizing. This week, the domestic price for ortho phthalic anhydride is 7200-7400 yuan/ton, while the domestic price for nano phthalic anhydride is 7100-7200 yuan/ton.

On September 23rd, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7800 yuan/ton for xylene, which remained unchanged from the price on September 16th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $840-842/ton as of September 20th, a cumulative decrease of $6/ton from $834-836/ton on September 17th.

Market forecast: From a cost perspective, the recent improvement in the crude oil market provides some support for market sentiment. In terms of supply, the inventory of xylene in Shandong region has remained high recently, and enterprises are actively reducing prices to clear inventory. The port inventory in East China has slightly increased recently, and there are still some incoming goods this week. The overall supply of xylene in the market is relatively loose. On the demand side, although downstream enterprises have a need to replenish inventory near the holiday, the overall demand still leans towards rigid demand, and the market downturn atmosphere is more wait-and-see. Overall, under the influence of loose supply, it is expected that the atmosphere in the spot market will remain weak in the short term. The market trend is expected to remain stable and fluctuate slightly in the short term, with a focus on pre holiday stocking in the future.