According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke rose sharply in February and then fell back, with an overall increase in prices. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries was 1877.50 yuan/ton on February 1 and 2545.00 yuan/ton on February 28, with a monthly increase of 35.55%.

Cost wise: International crude oil prices fluctuated downward in February. In the first half of the year, commercial crude oil and gasoline inventories in the United States increased significantly, coupled with market concerns about the risk of trade disputes, and Trump’s reaffirmation of increasing US crude oil production, leading to a decline in international oil prices. In the middle of the month, market concerns about the potential drag on demand from US tariffs have weakened, while US sanctions on some oil producing countries continue. Market concerns about potential supply risks have increased, coupled with the possibility of OPEC+delaying production increases, leading to an increase in international oil prices. The acceleration of the Russia Ukraine peace talks in the latter half of the year has led to a reduction in geopolitical risks, and the United States may impose tariffs on multiple countries and organizations, including the European Union, causing a decline in international oil prices.

Supply side: After the Spring Festival, the shipment of petroleum coke from local refineries has been good, with active transactions. The price of petroleum coke continues to rise significantly, and the inventory of petroleum coke remains low. In addition, some local coking units have plans to shut down or reduce production, resulting in a decrease in the supply of petroleum coke and benefiting the petroleum coke market. In late February, the transaction volume of petroleum coke from local refineries was average. In the early stage, the price of petroleum coke rose sharply, and downstream costs were under pressure. Purchasing was cautious, and refinery petroleum coke shipments were limited. In addition, some refineries adjusted their petroleum coke indicators, resulting in a continuous decline in petroleum coke prices. In February, imported petroleum coke continued to arrive at the port for storage, and the port inventory increased slightly. In the first half of the month, traders mainly executed previous orders, and imported sponge coke resources were tight, resulting in continuous price increases; Affected by the decrease in local coking prices in the second half of the month, the shipment of imported petroleum coke is under pressure, and some coke prices have fallen. However, due to the tight supply of imported low sulfur sponge coke resources, prices are relatively firm.

Demand side: Currently, the operating rate of metal silicon in Xinjiang is around 6 layers, and it is expected that there will be a small number of new furnaces added in the short term, but the overall growth rate is limited. The operating rate of metallic silicon in the northwest region remains stable at around 8 layers. Some enterprises in Yunnan have maintenance plans, and the operating rate of metal silicon has narrowly declined, with an operating rate of around 2 floors. At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is relatively light. Metal silicon and upstream and downstream factories are gradually resuming production, and the transmission between supply and demand is gradually recovering. The demand for petroleum coke market in the silicon industry still exists.

In February, the overall market for medium sulfur calcined coke saw a significant increase. In mid to early February, due to the continuous rise in petroleum coke prices, the cost pressure on calcined coke increased, and some companies suspended quoting and accepting orders; Affected by the decline in petroleum coke prices in late February, coupled with limited downstream demand approaching the end of the month, the weak consolidation of medium sulfur calcined coke was the main trend.

In February, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remained at a high level. Sichuan gradually resumed production by reducing production capacity in the early stages, and most are expected to achieve full capacity operation by the end of March. A loss making electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Guangxi has also resumed production recently, with a total production capacity of around 300000 tons per year. Downstream aluminum uses carbon as the main demand in the petroleum coke market.

Market forecast: Currently, the shipment of refined petroleum coke is active, overall inventory is low, port spot inventory is slowly declining, and downstream enterprises still have purchasing demand. It is expected that the petroleum coke market will stabilize and rise in the near future.

The epoxy propane market showed a “V” trend in February, with prices gradually stabilizing after bottoming out and rebounding. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 27th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8037.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.77% compared to the beginning of this month (8100 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: The operating rate of the epoxy propane industry is around 75.7%. In early February, after the end of the Spring Festival holiday, epoxy propane manufacturers resumed production, resulting in an increase in supply and pressure on inventory accumulation. The market’s willingness to raise prices was insufficient, and the price trend declined; Due to the impact of equipment shutdown and other factors in the later stage, the supply has been reduced, inventory is low, and market prices are gradually rising. At present, both Lihua Yiweiyuan and Xinyue Group’s epoxy propane units are in a shutdown state.

Raw material side: Acrylic on the raw material side is affected by changes in supply and demand, mainly consuming inventory, resulting in a weak market price trend. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 27th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6813.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.15% compared to the beginning of this month (6823.25 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: In early February, some terminals had not yet resumed production, the downstream demand atmosphere was cold, the purchasing mentality was not positive, and the transmission of epoxy propane was not smooth. In a state of strong supply and weak demand, the price of epoxy propane showed a downward trend. The terminal gradually resumed production in the later stage, and the purchasing mentality was positive. In addition, the news of the shutdown of large factories on the supply side brought positive support, and downstream purchasing followed suit, resulting in a rebound in trading atmosphere.

Market forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that while the supply of epoxy propane in the market is reduced, downstream demand has increased. In addition, due to the temporary suspension of sales by large enterprises, it is predicted that the epoxy propane market price may show a volatile trend in the later stage, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

In February 2025, due to cost factors, the average price of nylon filament increased slightly. In the first half of the month, the price of upstream raw material caprolactam was significantly affected by international crude oil fluctuations, and the cost pressure of caprolactam will continue to be transmitted to nylon yarn, supporting its price increase; In the second half of the month, it followed the weak decline of raw materials. Returning from the Spring Festival holiday, the overall inventory in the market is at a normal level, with insufficient new orders from downstream factories and low enthusiasm for raw material procurement. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with limited actual transactions in the market and weak support from the demand side. In the future, it is necessary to closely monitor the trend of the cost side and changes in downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the monthly average price of nylon filament will increase narrowly in February 2025. As of February 28, 2025, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 16680 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.72%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14300 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.88%; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 17300 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.44%.

The price of raw material caprolactam has risen

In terms of cost, the support on the cost side is strong. In February 2025, the trend of raw material caprolactam first rose and then fell, and the overall price increased. As of February 28, 2025, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 11220 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.72%.

Supply and demand: In February 2025, coinciding with the return of the Spring Festival holiday, nylon filament manufacturers are gradually resuming production and work, and the industry’s operating rate is gradually increasing. The on-site supply has slightly increased, and the performance of the supply side is still acceptable; The nylon filament market is operating at around 7.8% capacity. The downstream market has also basically resumed work and production. In addition, most manufacturers had already stocked up before the year, and in February, the basic consumption of raw material inventory was the main factor. The enthusiasm for raw material procurement was not high, and the actual transactions on site were limited, resulting in insufficient support from the demand side.

Future forecast

Cost aspect: In terms of caprolactam, the upstream pure benzene price fell at the end of the month, and there was little fluctuation in the on-site caprolactam equipment. The demand side mostly maintained on-demand procurement, and the short-term caprolactam market price mainly fluctuated at a high level.

Supply and demand side: Most nylon filament manufacturers have resumed normal production, and the on-site supply will increase significantly. At the same time, the overall inventory level in the market may increase; Downstream manufacturers have resumed work, and each enterprise has a certain amount of raw material inventory. In addition, due to insufficient confidence in the future market, the demand for replenishment is limited. However, with the arrival of the traditional textile peak season in March, the demand side will increase. It is expected that the short-term nylon filament market will be mainly driven by strong demand.

Overall, the spot market for raw material caprolactam and nylon PA6 chips are mainly operating strongly, with decent cost support. The traditional peak demand season combined with high costs may result in a stable to strong trend in nylon filament prices. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly experience slight fluctuations and consolidation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market fluctuated and weakened in February. As of February 27th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.37% from the beginning of the month. The average ex factory price of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 7218 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.37% from the beginning of the month. In the first half of the month, some PX facilities reduced their load and shut down, leading to a strong rise in PX prices and a positive boost in costs. But with the easing of the geopolitical situation in Europe, the decline in international crude oil prices, weakened cost support, and less than expected demand recovery, the price of polyester staple fibers has accelerated its decline.

Looking at the future, on the cost side, the unexpected increase in US refined oil inventories in the crude oil market indicates that the expectation of weak demand will not change, coupled with the pressure on oil prices brought by the Ukraine Russia peace agreement. As of February 26th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.62 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $72.07 per barrel. Further attention needs to be paid to tariff policies, OPEC+production plans, etc., as the oil market is likely to continue to fluctuate widely.

On the one hand, the PX market is affected by fluctuations in crude oil prices, and on the other hand, from the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, there is a concentrated maintenance plan for PX facilities in Asia in the second quarter, and some short process facilities may continue to operate with reduced production. Due to the pressure of processing space, there is a possibility of expanding the maintenance scale of PTA on the demand side, and the prospects for the supply and demand pattern are not optimistic. However, the expected increase in demand for oil blending may have a temporary boost effect on the PX market. The expectation of reduced supply and demand pressure drives market confidence to rebound, and prices are expected to run stronger.

The PTA market in February first rose and then fell. As of February 27th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4967 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5% from the beginning of the month. Under the low processing fees, PTA factories have increased maintenance, and the PTA industry’s operating rate was around 79% at the end of February. Some units were still undergoing maintenance in March and April.

On the demand side, downstream polyester production and sales recovery fell short of expectations, and there were not many new orders in the terminal textile industry. As of the end of February, the operating rate of the weaving machine industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 66%. There is limited room for further improvement in operating rates, and yarn inventory is at a high level. Even if terminal demand starts, it is difficult to quickly form positive feedback. The slow issuance of new orders for domestic and foreign trade, coupled with difficulties in negotiating new orders, has led to a cautious attitude towards the recovery of demand in March, which has dampened market confidence.

Business Society analysts believe that the current pressure on the accumulation of polyester staple fiber inventory is prominent. In addition, after the Spring Festival, the production of polyester staple fiber industry has steadily increased at a high level, but the recovery speed of downstream spinning industry is slow. Therefore, the weak supply and demand structure has dragged down the market mentality, and the pressure has intensified. But as the textile industry gradually enters the traditional peak demand season, the demand side will improve or drive up the price of polyester staple fibers.

Aluminum prices strengthen in February

Aluminum prices strengthened on February 26th. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 26, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20546.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.96% from the market average price of 20213.33 yuan/ton on February 1.

In terms of futures, on February 25, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum closed at 20615 yuan/ton, up 0.34%.

Reasons for today’s rebound in aluminum prices:

Although China’s aluminum ingot inventory is in a seasonal accumulation trend, it is still relatively low overall. On February 24th, China’s aluminum ingot inventory reached 24000 tons to 880000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory also decreased by 4000 tons to 535900 tons on February 24th. Low inventory has led to tight market supply and driven aluminum prices to strengthen.

The expectation of Rusal’s return to the international market has risen, and the price of London aluminum in foreign markets is higher. The inflow of Rusal into China may decrease, which will increase the price difference between domestic and foreign aluminum prices.

Due to the expectation of an important domestic conference and the impact of market sentiment on news, Hong Kong aluminum industry stocks fluctuated and rose on February 26th, with positive financial sentiment for the sector and strong aluminum prices.