1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on November 7th was 808 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.90% from the average price of 850 yuan/ton on November 1st.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has weakened and declined, and the focus of transactions has shifted downwards. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, with a slight increase in the operating rate at the domestic level. This week, there has been a decrease in downstream inquiries and a weakening in demand, with many adopting a cautious attitude. At present, the export market of ammonium sulfate is not performing well and will continue to operate weakly in the short term. As of November 7th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 760 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory price in Shandong region is around 800-860 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the market for ammonium sulfate has been weak recently, resulting in a decline in bidding prices. At present, there is no good news in the market, and downstream purchases are mainly seeking low prices, resulting in sluggish market transactions. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will continue to weaken and decline in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market experienced a narrow decline in early November, with some spot prices of certain brands falling below pre holiday levels. As of October 31st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 15983.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.10% compared to the beginning of October.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: Recently, the overall operating rate of PC in China has limited changes, and there are maintenance plans in Cangzhou Dahua. The industry average operating rate has narrowly fallen from around 81% at the beginning of the month to 79.3%. The weekly production of PC remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons in the medium and long term, with abundant on-site supply and a profound supply-demand mismatch pattern. Last week, the loose supply pattern remained unchanged, and there was little positive news on the supply side. Manufacturers were unable to raise prices, and factory pricing was under pressure to be lowered. At the same time, the future maintenance plan is sparse, and the market supply side continues to drag down PC prices.

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic price of bisphenol A stopped falling and stabilized in early November. The market for phenol and acetone, the direct raw materials of bisphenol A, has been weak and consolidated, with average support for the market. The downstream PC production of the two main forces has limited changes, while the epoxy resin production has increased and the stocking heat has slightly rebounded, which to some extent supports the consumption of bisphenol A. But in the early stage, the bisphenol A industry had a heavy load return, and the supply of goods was abundant. Overall, bisphenol A’s support for PC costs has stopped further dragging down or entered a plateau period.

In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not shown any improvement in the medium to long term, and the overall trend has been relatively weak compared to the previous period. The traditional peak season of “golden September and silver October” has not been realized in terminal consumption, and the logic of weak rigid demand procurement continues to this day. The bidding price of Zhejiang Petrochemical has fallen at a low level, and the wait-and-see sentiment of the industry is biased. Buyers have strong resistance to high priced goods, and the circulation of goods on site is slow. The load recovery of downstream enterprises is not significant, and factories are taking goods to maintain production. It is difficult for the demand side to form strong support for spot prices.

Future forecast

In early November, the PC market continued its weak trend and fell at a low level. The upstream bisphenol A market has stopped falling and stabilized, with overall weak support for PC costs. The load of domestic polymerization plants continues to be high, and the supply remains high. Downstream weak and rigid demand stocking makes it difficult to drive the market trend, resulting in poor flow of market goods and a profound mismatch between supply and demand. Although the price of PC has fallen below the low point of the year, industry benefits are difficult to materialize. Therefore, Shengyi Society predicts that the future PC market may face the risk of a downward trend.

At the beginning of the new week, the domestic phenol market remained strong and upward. According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, the domestic phenol market price on November 4th was 7562.5 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of about 50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the new week.

Sinopec Huadong phenol is listed at a price of 7600 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China phenol is listed at a price range of 7550-7600 yuan/ton. As of the 4th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

Region/ 4-day quotation/ Daily fluctuations

East China region/ 7470./ 50

Shandong region/ 7600./ 0

Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain/ 7600./ 0

South China region/ 7570./ 50

At the beginning of the week, the inventory at Jiangyin Port did not fluctuate significantly, maintaining at a level of 15000 tons. With the expectation of delayed arrival of domestic trade sources, traders’ intentions were high, and most offers on Monday remained firm. From a cost perspective, the spot price of pure benzene has risen, with reference transactions ranging from 7200-7350 yuan/ton. The restart of styrene maintenance facilities in the distant months has increased demand for pure benzene, which is favorable for the benzene market. From a cost perspective, it provides favorable support for downstream phenol.

The downstream bisphenol A spot market is running lightly, and overall it remains lukewarm in November. Market offers are steadily advancing, with negotiations in the East China region at 8900-9100 yuan/ton. There is currently no significant news impact on the market.

It is expected that the phenol market will continue to rise in price, and attention should be paid to the fundamental dynamics of supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of cotton yarn rose sharply in October and then slightly fell back. As of October 31, the reference price of 21S pure cotton ring spinning spot in Shandong Province, China was around 22970 yuan/ton, an increase of about 330 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, an increase of 1.47%; The reference price for 32S pure cotton ring spinning spot is 24400 yuan/ton, an increase of 525 yuan/ton or 2.20% from the beginning of the month.

Market Overview: After the National Day holiday, downstream fabric factories have concentrated on purchasing, and textile enterprises have increased their orders, resulting in price increases. Some manufacturers have raised their cotton yarn prices by 500-800 yuan/ton, but the peak season support time is relatively short. In the mid to late months, textile enterprises have gradually decreased their orders, and prices have slightly decreased. During the month, the futures price of Zhengzhou cotton significantly weakened, coupled with the weak peak season and limited orders from cotton yarn enterprises. The Zhengzhou cotton main chain also followed suit and weakened, with a monthly drop of 920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.52%.

Startup situation: The textile market orders were basically stable in October, with a significant decrease in startup for small textile enterprises and a stable startup for large enterprises. Overall, there was little change, and most enterprises maintained normal production, while some manufacturers increased the proportion of cotton startups. As of the end of October, the operating load of mainstream textile enterprises was 72.5%, with a month on month increase of 0.1%, basically stable.

Finished product inventory: In early October, cotton yarn shipments were smooth. After mid October, due to poor follow-up of new orders, small and medium-sized yarn factories adjusted their operations to maintain reasonable inventory. As of the end of October, the yarn inventory of major regional textile enterprises was 23.9 days, a month on month decrease of 5.91%.

In terms of raw materials: Currently, cotton is in a concentrated supply season, and commercial inventories have entered an increasing state. Expected cotton prices to fluctuate weakly in November, pay attention to macroeconomic policy adjustments and external market dynamics.

On the demand side: The market for greige fabric is flat, affected by factory inventory and sluggish orders. Even if yarn prices rise, the price of regular greige fabric has not been able to increase. Recently, there has been a decreasing trend in overall orders, with some orders being overturned but all being small orders, mainly consisting of early replenishment.

Market forecast: After the “Silver October”, downstream demand will gradually weaken, and the market trading atmosphere will decrease. It is expected that textile companies will lower their operating rates to reduce inventory. There is currently no positive support for downstream in the short term, and it is expected that cotton yarn prices will be weak next month. We will continue to pay attention to the order situation of fabric factories.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke remained stable this week. As of October 31st, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1478.50 yuan/ton, which was stable compared to October 28th.

Cost wise: Crude oil prices have fallen this week, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is controllable. In addition, the future demand for crude oil market is worrying, which has led to a continuous decline in the oil market.

On the supply side: This week, downstream aluminum carbon enterprises in the refining of petroleum coke urgently need to stock up to support the petroleum coke market. The price of petroleum coke is affected by indicators, with mixed price fluctuations and average market trading. Recently, there has been limited availability of low sulfur petroleum coke in the port, with low inventory and increased market inquiries.

On the demand side: Currently, the supply of silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Shandong regions is relatively stable, while Yunnan region mainly delivers early-stage orders, and the overall price on the supply side is relatively low and stable. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is average, and its support for the petroleum coke market is limited.

Recently, the market for medium sulfur calcined coke has remained stable, with limited downstream demand. Currently, most companies have already sold their orders for next month, and downstream customers are mainly observing and waiting.

The daily production of Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises is at a high level, and the upward space has narrowed. However, recently, Southern Power Grid announced that Yunnan electrolytic aluminum may lift power restrictions this winter and next spring, and downstream electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan is expected to not reduce production in the fourth quarter; Downstream multiple sectors have experienced a rebound in operating rates, with electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventories both experiencing slight destocking.

Market forecast: Currently, downstream demand for petroleum coke in the refining industry is increasing, supporting the petroleum coke market. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke will be adjusted narrowly based on indicators and inventory in the near future.