According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market rose in November 2024, with an average price of 16460 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 17165 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 4.28%.

On December 3rd, the lead commodity index was 105.68, up 0.91 points from yesterday, down 21.14% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (2016-11-29), and up 41.61% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall. After the lead price rose in January 2024, the trend in the first half of the year was strong and volatile. It continued to rise from March to July, and after a correction from August to October, it resumed its upward trend at the end of the year due to tight spot prices. Looking at the weekly trend, there is a split of gains and losses.

The lead ingot market rose strongly in the first half of November, followed by a short-term correction and stabilization. In the second half of the month, the market continued to consolidate and rise, with an overall upward trend.

On the raw material side, the price of lead concentrate has increased. On the refining end, some smelters have reduced production due to environmental inspections. For example, a refinery in Anhui is expected to reduce production by about 1000 tons, and a refinery in Yunnan is expected to reduce production by 20%. Multiple domestic refineries are facing tight supply of maintenance and spot goods. In terms of new production, Qinghai Refinery has plans to increase production.

On the supply and demand side, the total supply of lead ingots decreased year-on-year, reflecting a certain degree of weak consumption. Recently, some lead-acid battery companies have plans to reduce production, and the impact needs further observation.

Overall, the lead market supply in November 2024 was affected by production cuts, resulting in weak demand. However, the international market demand was good, leading to a slight increase in prices. Expected to maintain a high level of operation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market remained generally stable in November, with some brand products experiencing a narrow price increase in the latter half of the year. As of November 30th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7621.43 yuan/ton, a rise or fall of+0.57% compared to the price level at the beginning of November.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of international crude oil, the market’s demand panic eased in early November due to the extension of OPEC’s production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day until the end of December. However, the subsequent mid month US election disrupted oil prices, smoothing out some of the favorable production cuts. The expected easing of the geopolitical situation at the end of the month has led to fluctuations in crude oil prices within the month, providing moderate support for the upstream of PP in the far end. In terms of propylene, domestic supply was first tight and then relaxed, with production capacity returning and imported goods entering the port for fermentation. Buyers tended to be cautious in their operations, and prices remained stagnant after rising. Propane’s upstream decline has stabilized within the month, inventory levels are not high, the market is relatively stable, and the cost of PDH production direction has leveled off. Overall, the raw materials for PP in November were stable or fluctuating, with moderate support on the cost side.

Supply side:

In November, the load level of domestic PP enterprises continued the downward trend from the previous period. Prior to this month, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Guangzhou Petrochemical, as well as Donghua Energy and CNOOC Shell, entered the plant maintenance plan in mid month. At the end of the month, Hebei Haiwei and Lianhong Xinke production lines underwent load reduction maintenance, reducing the overall industry load from 76.5% at the beginning of the month to below 68% at present. Domestic PP shipments have contracted significantly, while inventory levels have decreased from 765000 tons to 680000 tons. Although the supply is still abundant, some sources of goods have experienced structural contraction. Overall, the supply side provides strong support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

The demand for PP in November remained stable with some weakness. At the beginning of the month, the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice remained stable. Affected by seasonality, some industry enterprises have experienced a slight decline in production, and the consumption level of plastic weaving has narrowly declined, resulting in a cooling of their willingness to hold positions; The consumption of pipes in the early stage has slightly rebounded due to the stimulation of real estate related policies, and the positive effects have gradually dissipated within the month; The consumption of BOPP film enterprises is strong, and the raw material reserves of terminal enterprises are generally stable with some increase. Overall, there are narrow fluctuations in various aspects of the demand side, which are generally weak and stable.

Future forecast

In November, the domestic PP market prices fluctuated narrowly and rose at the end of the month. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is average. However, the supply side maintenance continued to be released within the month, and there was a tight supply situation in some parts of the market. However, according to consumer feedback, industry players are cautious about future terminal consumption and are concerned about the offline production of new capacity at the end of the year. Trading on the market is average and there has been no large-scale price chasing. In the short term, it is expected that PP prices will remain stable with some increase.

Aluminum prices in November will experience a “V” decline

Aluminum prices remained strong in early November, showing a strong performance. Recently, aluminum prices have fallen, and aluminum prices have been fluctuating in November. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 29, 2024, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20373.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.20% from the market average price of 21720 yuan/ton on November 8.

In mid to late November, aluminum prices showed a weak downward trend for the following reasons:

1. Downstream is weak in accepting high priced aluminum ingots

After the previous cost push, aluminum prices are currently at a relatively high level for the year. In the overall environment where domestic real estate terminal demand is not optimistic, the downstream has limited tolerance for high prices.

2. There is an expectation of weakening export demand

On November 15, 2024, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued a notice on adjusting the export tax rebate policy. Starting from December 1, 2024, all export tax rebates for aluminum products will be cancelled, involving 24 tax codes such as aluminum strips, aluminum foils, aluminum tubes, aluminum tube accessories, and some aluminum bar profiles.

The partial 301 tariff policy of the United States came into effect on September 27th. This includes a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, a 50% tariff on Chinese solar cells, and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel, aluminum, electric vehicle batteries, and key minerals.

The cancellation of export tax rebates for downstream aluminum products in China and the implementation of some 301 tariff policies in the United States. Prior to this, under the guidance of the new US president and tax increase policies, the overseas landing costs of exported products have been raised from a domestic perspective. The export demand of the aluminum industry chain is expected to weaken.

3. Doubts about the sustainability of cost support

Although the short-term cost support for aluminum ingots remains strong, the sustainability of cost support is questionable. The fundamentals of proximal alumina remain favorable, but it has also been reflected in prices, with even alumina prices exceeding expectations and experiencing excessive increases. Currently, the profit window for alumina exports is gradually closing, and due to high prices, there will be more production capacity in the future, and long-term excess pressure will gradually emerge; The risk of alumina price pullback has increased, and the cost support risk of aluminum ingot prices has intensified.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this month (11.1-11.28), with an average market price of 254660 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 236560 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 7.11%.

At the beginning of November, tin prices showed a strong oscillation trend under the influence of multiple factors. With the gradual manifestation of supply side pressure and increasing uncertainty on the demand side, tin prices began to fall under pressure in the middle of the month. At the end of the month, tin prices continued to decline due to market sentiment and technical factors.

Macroscopically, as the dust settles on the US presidential election and the recent strong trend of the US dollar puts pressure on metals, tin prices have been impacted.

In the third quarter of 2024, the global import volume of tin concentrate has significantly increased, mainly from countries such as Congo, South America, and Australia. However, the resumption of tin ore production in the Wa State of Myanmar has not yet been confirmed, but the global supply growth trend of tin concentrate is already very evident.

On the refining end, with the completion of maintenance for large domestic refineries, normal operations resumed this month. This has laid the foundation for the recovery of production in Yunnan region. Jiangxi’s smelting enterprises have taken measures such as expanding the procurement channels for waste tin to ensure stable current production. Due to the increasing difficulty of raw materials, the output of smelting enterprises in Anhui and other regions has been affected.

On the demand side, the electronics industry is recovering, and the terminal electronics industry is in an upward cycle. The recovery of the semiconductor industry has driven an increase in overseas tin ingot imports. The demand for new energy in the domestic market remains stable in the household appliance sector, and the photovoltaic and new energy sectors are also showing high momentum. The consumption of new energy vehicles remains strong, which to some extent limits the decline in tin prices.

Overall, although tin prices may be affected by weak adjustments in the short term, the support below tin prices has become stronger and is not expected to continue to decline.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8475 yuan/ton on November 1st, and the average price was 8721 yuan/ton on November 27th, with a price increase of 2.91% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10816 yuan/ton on November 1st, and the average price was 10816 yuan/ton on November 27th, with the quotation remaining unchanged during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (2426H) was 8475 yuan/ton on November 1st, and the average price was 8525 yuan/ton on November 27th, with a price increase of 0.59% during this period.

The overall trend of polyethylene is relatively strong, with linear products continuing to rise. High voltage products showed a significant decline at the beginning of the month, and prices continued to rise thereafter, while low-voltage products saw a slight increase. Factors contributing to the decline in high-pressure products at the beginning of the month: Due to the conversion of some EVA units to LDPE, there is an expected increase in LDPE supply, resulting in a decrease in prices. The maintenance of enterprise equipment is relatively concentrated, and the supply of goods is tight, which is favorable for the polyethylene market. Petrochemical companies have raised their prices, and traders have followed suit with offers. The demand for agricultural film in November has turned weak from the peak season, while downstream demand for essential replenishment remains limited, resulting in limited new orders and average market transactions. In the second half of the month, crude oil fluctuated strongly and rose, while the cost side boosted the polyethylene market. Recently, prices have fallen, and cost support has weakened. Positive domestic policies have been released, and the market sentiment is good, providing support for the polyethylene market.

On November 27th, the Dalian Commodity Exchange polyethylene L2501 contract opened at 8415 yuan and closed at 8401 yuan, up 8 yuan, with a high of 8434 yuan and a low of 8383 yuan, up 0.10%. The trend of polyethylene futures in November fluctuated strongly, providing some support for the spot market.

The maintenance of the polyethylene plant will be concentrated in November, and with the addition of new production capacity and the restart of parking facilities in December, the supply side is expected to increase; The demand for agricultural film is gradually coming to an end in December, and the downstream operating rate is expected to decrease; In addition, downstream suppliers are more resistant to high priced goods, and it is expected that polyethylene will mainly fluctuate weakly in December.