According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been rising and then falling recently (12.1-12.17). As of December 17, the spot rubber market price in China’s natural rubber market was around 17284 yuan/ton, up 1.51% from 17027 yuan/ton on December 1, and the highest point during the cycle was 17740 yuan/ton. Recently, the price range of raw materials has fluctuated; Domestic Tianjian inventory continues to increase slightly; Downstream tire factories tend to stock up on demand to support the demand for natural rubber, but they have some resistance to high priced sources, and the natural rubber market is consolidating in the high range.

December is currently the peak production season in major overseas production areas, and there is an expectation of seasonal increase in raw material output. But at the beginning of the month, there was more rainfall in southern Thailand, which restricted the development of rubber cutting work. In the middle of the month, as the weather improved, rubber cutting work gradually returned to normal, and raw material prices fell slightly from high levels. As of December 17th, the price of Thai glue was 75.00 baht/kg, a significant increase from 69.00 baht/kg on the 1st; As of December 17th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area was around 17400 yuan/ton, slightly adjusted from 17500 yuan/ton on the 1st.

Natural rubber inventory continues to show a state of accumulation. As of December 15, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 452000 tons, an increase of 17300 tons compared to the previous period.

The downstream tire production is basically stable, and the downstream tires mainly provide support for the natural rubber market’s demand. As of December 13th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.7%.

Market forecast: The current domestic and international supply of raw materials is gradually increasing, and the prices of raw materials are slightly falling from high levels; The tire market supports the demand for natural rubber, but is resistant to high priced sources of goods; The inventory of Tianjian has slightly increased; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term.

The market price of butadiene rubber in the first half of December slightly increased. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 15th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 13920 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.04% from 13380 yuan/ton on December 1st. The price of raw material butadiene has risen significantly, and the center of gravity of butadiene rubber has shifted upward; Shunding rubber production is gradually increasing; Downstream all steel tire construction has started with minor adjustments. The supply price of Shunding rubber suppliers has been raised, and the quotes from merchants have been adjusted. As of December 15th, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China are 13850-14100 yuan/ton.

In the first half of December, the price of butadiene continued to rise, and the cost of butadiene rubber was significantly supported. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 15th, the price of butadiene was 10450 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.46% from 9725 yuan/ton on December 1st.

Recently (12.0-12.15), the construction rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants has gradually increased to 7.8%.

Demand side: Downstream tires mainly provide essential support for the butadiene rubber market. As of December 13th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 5.7% of the load.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will rise again, and the cost support for butadiene rubber will strengthen; Recently, downstream construction has remained stable, providing strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber; However, the production of Shunding rubber has risen, and the pressure on the supply side has increased. Overall, the Shunding rubber market is mainly fluctuating in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 9th to 13th, MTBE prices rose from 5525 yuan/ton to 5612 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.58% during the period, a month on month increase of 5.40%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.98%. The domestic MTBE market is mainly volatile, and the price increase is particularly evident. The core driving factor for the wide upward trend in prices is the large delivery of gasoline shipping orders and the good support of new vehicle and shipping orders. Industry players have a high enthusiasm for purchasing related gasoline raw materials, and MTBE manufacturers are actively pushing up prices. However, near the end of the week, manufacturers’ shipments have weakened.

In terms of cost and crude oil, the rise in international oil prices is mainly due to the increased potential supply risks in the Middle East caused by the turbulent situation in Syria, coupled with improved economic and demand prospects in Asia. As of December 12th, the Brent price was $73.52 per barrel.

From the perspective of demand and downstream gasoline terminal demand, international crude oil futures have fluctuated upwards, and the gasoline market has shown strong performance. Refineries have increased their enthusiasm for pushing prices, and market transactions are mainly dominated by gasoline. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.

Supply side: There are currently no new start-up and shutdown devices, and the overall fluctuation of resource supply is limited. The short-term impact on domestic MTBE supply is mixed.

As of the close on December 12th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $12/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $731.49-733.49/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $3.75/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $812.99-813.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $0.95/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $825.37-825.73/ton (233.05-233.15 cents/gallon).

Future forecast: After the MTBE price rises to a temporary high, the resistance of industry players to high prices is increasing, and the market may have a moderate slight correction, but the space is limited. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market will consolidate narrowly in the short term.

This week (12.6-12.12), the supply and demand of dichloromethane were deadlocked, and prices were lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 12th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2910 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 5.98%.

The industry’s operating load during the week remained basically the same as last week, and the demand side maintained rigid procurement. The supply-demand game weakened the market trading atmosphere, and the inventory of enterprises increased. As the end of the year approached, the prices of manufacturers slightly decreased, which aroused market sentiment. Currently, there is no significant year-end stocking situation, and the outlook is strong. As of December 12th, the ex factory price of mainstream dichloromethane in Shandong region is around 2880-2920 yuan/ton.

On the supply side: During the week, some companies’ factory production capacity slightly recovered, while others reduced their equipment load. Overall, it remained stable compared to the previous week. Operation status of methane chloride unit in the enterprise this week:

In terms of raw materials, the methanol market is on the rise, with steady increases in production and operating rates, and overall shipments are smooth. As of December 12th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2595.83 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.03% from the beginning of the month. The market situation of liquid chlorine in Shandong is stable, with a relatively flat trading atmosphere and average shipments.

In terms of demand, the refrigerant market has entered the end of annual production, and due to the quota system, enterprise inventory is significantly insufficient. R32 products are mainly sold to air conditioning enterprises, with prices gradually rising to 42000 yuan/ton. The national subsidy policy is significant, and the demand for household appliances is performing well, making the market easy to rise but difficult to fall. Other applications should maintain a strong demand for purchasing and restock at low prices.

Business analysts believe that the raw material support is stable, while the supply side inventory is increasing. As the end of the year approaches, the demand side expects low-priced stocking, and it is expected that the dichloromethane market will operate weakly and steadily in the short term.

The domestic ABS market rose in early December, with spot prices of various grades increasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 11th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11750 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of+2.29 compared to the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: In early December, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry remained stable with small fluctuations, and the industry load level had limited changes compared to the end of November. The resumption of maintenance and work within ten days has been mutually observed, with the overall industry operating rate decreasing by 2% to around 69%, and the weekly average production of 117000 tons slightly declining. Inventory has also been digested, with a decrease of nearly 20000 tons to around 160000 tons, but the overall pattern of abundant supply remains unchanged. Overall, the supply side provided average support for ABS spot prices in early December.

Cost factor: Since December, the trend of ABS upstream three materials has either consolidated or increased, and overall support for ABS cost side performance is still acceptable. The domestic acrylonitrile market remains at a high level with an upward trend, while the supply in the East and South China regions remains tight and unchanged, making it difficult to achieve significant growth in the short term. With low inventory support, suppliers continue to raise prices, and the market continues to rise, with prices remaining firm and upward.

The domestic butadiene market has steadily rebounded slightly within the range. In the early stage, the arrival of cargo in the East China region was poor, and the supply expectation in the spot market was tight. In addition, the ex factory prices of suppliers have risen recently, and spot market offers have generally increased. Downstream demand remains weak, procurement intentions are poor, and insufficient demand support may make it difficult to maintain upward momentum in the future market. Overall, the price increase of butadiene may be limited.

In early December, the styrene market fluctuated and consolidated. The upstream crude oil in the far end has slightly loosened, and the price of pure benzene, the direct raw material, has fallen after rising. The cost support of styrene is struggling. The operating rate of domestic industries has limited changes, and the tight supply situation continues. Combined with the decline in imports expected at the end of the previous month, the current bullish trend dominates the market, but the expectation of weakened supply and demand in the future has led to cautious operations by businesses.

On the demand side: Although the downstream wait-and-see sentiment remained strong in December, the terminal side of home appliances products made efforts. Due to the continuous stimulus of the national subsidy policy for household appliances, sales of some end products have increased, and demand has slightly risen. Due to the concerns of home appliance exporters about the remote market, some export demand has been pushed forward, the overall load position of factories has rebounded, terminal stocking willingness has strengthened, and procurement operations have increased synchronously. Merchants continue to digest inventory, try to increase their offers, and increase the activity of source circulation. Overall, the demand side is helping to heat up the market.

Future forecast

The domestic ABS market strengthened in early December. The performance of the upstream three materials is still acceptable, providing strong comprehensive support for the cost side of ABS. The load of ABS polymerization plant has slightly decreased, and finished product inventory continues to be digested. The demand side is becoming stronger, and the market is stable and strong under the guidance of consumption. However, the supply contraction within the venue is limited, and coupled with the fear of overdrawn demand for household appliances, future consumption may be affected. Industry players are concerned about the future market, and analysts from Business Society believe that the uncertainty of ABS’s forward trend may constrain short-term gains. In the near future, the ABS market may return to a narrow range consolidation trend.