According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has slightly declined recently (12.17-12.24). As of December 24th, the spot rubber market in China is around 16604 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.93% from 17284 yuan/ton on December 17th. Recently, raw material prices have been weak and declining; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory continues to increase; Downstream tire factories tend to stock up on demand to support the demand for natural rubber, but they have some resistance to high priced sources, leading to a decline in the natural rubber market at a high level.

December is currently the peak production season in major overseas production areas, and there is an expectation of seasonal increase in raw material output. Recently, with the improvement of weather conditions, rubber cutting work has gradually returned to normal, and raw material prices have fallen from high levels. As of December 24th, the price of Thai glue was 68.00 baht/kg, a significant decrease from 75.00 baht/kg on the 17th; As of December 24th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production areas was around 17200 yuan/ton, slightly lower than 17400 yuan/ton on the 17th.

Natural rubber inventory continues to show a state of accumulation. As of December 22, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 470000 tons, an increase of 18000 tons compared to the previous period.

Downstream tires mainly provide essential support for the natural rubber market. As of December 20th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.20% of the load.

Market forecast: The current domestic and international supply of raw materials is gradually increasing, and raw material prices are falling back from high levels; The tire market supports the demand for natural rubber, but is resistant to high priced sources of goods; The inventory of Tianjiao Port continues to increase; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly consolidate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic hydrogen peroxide market fluctuated and fell in December, with a decline of over 7%. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 760 yuan/ton. On the 24th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 703 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.46%.

Negative sentiment continues to fluctuate and decline in the hydrogen peroxide market in December

At the beginning of December, there was a decrease in terminal demand, and manufacturers’ purchases of hydrogen peroxide were average, with negative factors dominating. The hydrogen peroxide market weakened, with an overall quotation of 700-760 yuan/ton. Approaching mid month, due to poor demand in the terminal paper and printing industries, the operating rate of hydrogen peroxide has increased, resulting in oversupply. The hydrogen peroxide market has experienced a significant decline, with an average market price of 710 yuan/ton. In the latter half of the year, terminal demand remained sluggish, and the pressure on hydrogen peroxide supply continued. After the market fell, it tended to stabilize, and the average market price was around 700 yuan/ton. Throughout December, the hydrogen peroxide market remained weak and mainly declined, with a drop of nearly 8%.

Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide analyst believes that after New Year’s Day, the rigid demand for terminal hydrogen peroxide is unlikely to change, and the hydrogen peroxide market will continue to weaken in the future.

Market summary: This week, the operating rate of the acrylonitrile industry has increased, supply has increased, and some production enterprises have continuously lowered their factory prices, resulting in a slight decline in overall market prices. As of the weekend, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is 9600-9750 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 9350-9550 yuan/ton.

Supply side: As of December 20th, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 71.65%, an increase of 3.38% compared to the same period last week. The weekly output is 66300 tons, with a slight increase in supply. However, whether there will be a significant increase in supply in the later stage is still uncertain, and the industry inventory will continue to be low in the short term. As of December 20, 2024, the inventory of acrylonitrile plants was 29100 tons, an increase of+0.1 million tons from last week.

In terms of cost, the domestic propylene market as a whole showed a narrow range of fluctuations this week, with the mainstream closing in Shandong referring to 6880-7030 yuan/ton. The cost support is average.

In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has not changed much, and overall demand is relatively stable. Among them, the ABS capacity utilization rate is 71.70%, which is the same as last week.

Market outlook: Currently, the domestic acrylonitrile market is deadlocked and weak. As the end of the month approaches, attention is being paid to the release of factory settlement prices. There are still expectations of a decline in spot prices, but the short-term space may be limited. At present, there is a continuous differentiation in supply between the north and south, and the supply in the East China region is still not abundant. At the same time, the industry inventory is low, and the market still has conditions for rising prices. The market has limited room for decline in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell this week (12.16-12.20), with an average market price of 16333 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16333 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with prices remaining stable.

This week’s market analysis

The transaction performance of the magnesium market has slowed down this week, mainly due to the impact of concentrated downstream procurement last week. At the same time, as Christmas approaches, foreign customers are gradually entering a vacation state, and the number of overseas inquiries has significantly decreased. In the domestic market, procurement is mainly based on essential needs, and overall demand is relatively stable.

Supply and demand side

This week, magnesium prices have remained relatively stable, mainly due to the support of factory costs and the stabilization of the ferrosilicon market. Meanwhile, the support of the storage policy also makes it difficult for magnesium prices to further decline. However, due to the overall accounting losses of factories, the market generally expects limited downward space for magnesium prices.

Due to the combined effects of loose supply and demand, factory cost support, and storage policies, it is expected that the magnesium market will be mainly stable next week. However, the market still needs to pay attention to demand follow-up in order to determine future market trends.

comprehensive analysis

This week, the transaction volume in the magnesium market has slowed down, mainly due to the impact of downstream centralized procurement and reduced demand in foreign markets in the early stage. It is expected that the market will remain stable next week, but attention still needs to be paid to the follow-up of demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China remained stable this week. As of December 19th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11583.33 yuan/ton, which was the same as the beginning of this week.

Raw material side: The price of raw fluorite remained stable at a high level this week. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, domestic fluorite prices have risen this week. As of December 19th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society fluorite was 3678.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.10% compared to the beginning of this month (3675.00 yuan/ton).

Demand side: Maintain stability in the downstream refrigerant market. Some factories have offered price increases. Affected by quota management and maintenance plans, most units in the refrigerant industry entered a shutdown state in December, and the operating load gradually decreased, resulting in a continued cold atmosphere towards raw material procurement.

Market forecast: The market price of raw materials remains stable at a high level, and downstream purchases are mainly based on demand. We adopt a wait-and-see and cautious attitude towards high priced raw material purchases. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid will remain stable in the later period.