At the beginning of January, the domestic ABS market in China maintained consolidation, with spot prices of various grades stabilizing slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 7th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11837.50 yuan/ton, which remained the same as the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: In early January, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry remained stable with a small increase, and the industry load level increased narrowly by about 2% to 74% compared to the end of last month. The load of enterprise equipment has increased, and production capacity is gradually returning. The weekly average production within the range is close to 130000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises is close to 170000 tons, both of which have increased. The overall pattern of abundant supply of goods remains unchanged. Overall, the supply side provided average support for ABS spot prices in January.

Cost factor: Since January, the three upstream materials of ABS have shown mixed trends, with overall support for ABS costs being average. The domestic acrylonitrile market has maintained a sideways trend recently. In the early stage, the industry maintained low load operation, with low inventory levels and tight supply. But the news of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical’s production has smoothed out the positive news on the supply side, and the overall market is adopting a wait-and-see attitude.

Recently, the butadiene market has continued to rise, and the overall available supply in the spot market is tight. Holders of goods have a strong mentality of supporting prices. Boosted by this news, market quotes generally rose. But as prices continue to rise, downstream high-level receiving capacity gradually declines. As the Spring Festival approaches, some pre holiday purchasing demand has been released downstream, driving an improvement in the atmosphere of the spot market.

At the beginning of January, the styrene market rebounded narrowly after a decline. With the restart of the equipment, the domestic industry’s operating rate has rebounded in the early stage, and the tight supply situation has become more relaxed, resulting in a weakened market. Recently, there has been a rebound in upstream crude oil prices, while downstream demand has remained relatively stable. The market may enter a consolidation phase in the future.

In terms of demand, downstream purchasing power decreased in early January, and the demand for export of some front-end household appliances in the terminal sector was completely released. The overall load position of factories fell, and the willingness of terminal stocking decreased. Overall, the demand side provides average market support. However, the extension of the national subsidy policy for household appliances will stimulate the market, and terminal products may continue to receive policy support in the future. There is hope for enterprise inventory digestion, and market confidence is expected to rebound.

Future forecast

At the beginning of January, the domestic ABS market operated steadily. The performance of the upstream three materials is average, and the comprehensive support for ABS cost side is flat. The load of ABS polymerization plant has slightly rebounded, and the inventory of finished products has accumulated slightly. The demand on the demand side is relatively weak, but as the end of the lunar calendar approaches, the on-site demand is limited. Business analysts believe that the ABS market may enter a pre holiday period and consolidate weakly.

Last week (December 27, 2024- January 5, 2025), the center of gravity of the nylon filament market fell. The market trend on the raw material side is not good, the support on the cost side is declining, the supply on site is relatively abundant, and downstream manufacturers have low purchasing enthusiasm. Multiple parties hold sporadic demand orders, and under the interweaving of news on the market, the price of nylon filament has fallen sharply.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament slightly decreased last week (December 27, 2024- January 5, 2025). As of January 5, 2025, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 16660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 420 yuan/ton from last week, a weekly decrease of 2.46%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decline of 2.05%. The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 17500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 425 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decline of 2.37%.

Raw materials continue to decline

In terms of cost: Last week (December 27, 2024- January 5, 2025), Sinopec lowered the weekly settlement price of high-end caprolactam by 380 yuan/ton to 10930 yuan/ton. As of January 5, 2025, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 10776 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.16%. The market price of PA6 high-speed spun slices has slightly decreased, and the raw material market price has weakened and declined during the week, with a weekly decline of 0.67%, indicating a lack of cost support.

On the supply side: Currently, the nylon filament market is operating at around 8.4% capacity, with little fluctuation in the operating rate of market facilities. On site inventory remains at a normal level, and the positive support from the supply side is limited.

Downstream demand: Terminal market demand remains weak, with insufficient new orders in the downstream market. Most factories are in the year-end closing stage, with limited replenishment plans and no improvement in demand.

Future forecast

The cost support of upstream raw materials may be strengthened to some extent, and the supply of caprolactam market may increase to some extent. The demand side will follow up with replenishment as needed, and the caprolactam market segment will be sorted out in the later stage; In terms of PA6 slicing, the caprolactam market is expected to maintain stable prices, and downstream manufacturers still have a cautious attitude towards purchasing. The PA6 slicing market will remain stable with small fluctuations in the later stage. There is currently no clear plan to reduce production in the nylon filament market, and the on-site supply may remain high, with the possibility of an increase in inventory levels; The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and the demand in the terminal market is weak. The possibility of downstream market stocking is not high, and some downstream manufacturers may gradually reduce production and holiday, which may lead to a decrease in demand. Overall, the spot market for raw material caprolactam and the PA6 chip market may experience consolidation and operation, with relatively stable cost side support. Downstream manufacturers have a certain degree of risk aversion, with less inventory and difficult demand side support. Business analysts predict that the nylon filament market will mainly experience weak consolidation and operation in the later stage, with little price change.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on January 3rd, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 11560 yuan/ton. Compared with December 31st (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 11690 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.11%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that after the New Year’s Day holiday, the domestic spot market for silicon metal continued to experience a deep decline, and the market center of gravity adjusted downward again, with a price reduction of around 50-200 yuan/ton; The spot price of metallic silicon 441 # in East China has been lowered by 100 yuan, with a reference price of 11500~11600 yuan/ton; The market price of metal silicon 441 # in Kunming area has been lowered by 150 yuan/ton, with a reference price of 11650 yuan/ton; The market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Tianjin Port area is 11300~11600 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 50 yuan/ton; The market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Huangpu Port area is 11400~11600 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 100 yuan/ton; The market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Sichuan region is 11300~11400 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 50 yuan/ton; The market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # in Shanghai is 11950 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 100 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Market Factors

Supply side: After the holiday, downstream procurement demand was not fully released, and there were fewer new orders in the market. The overall operating rate of the silicon metal market still slightly decreased, and the overall operating rate of the market was at a low level throughout the year. Among them, the operating rate in Yunnan was around 45%, the operating rate in Xinjiang was around 60%, and the operating rate in Sichuan was close to 13% due to high electricity prices during the dry season and sluggish market conditions. However, due to the drag of demand, there is still some supply pressure in the market, and the supply-demand contradiction is exposed. The overall support of the silicon metal market is insufficient.

Market Price Trends of Metal Silicon

Region/ Brand number/ January 3rd

East China region/ Without oxygen 553 #/ 10900~11100 yuan/ton

East China region/ Oxygen 553 #/ 11300~11400 yuan/ton

East China region/ 521 #./11600~11800 yuan/ton

East China region/ 441 #./11500~11600 yuan/ton

East China region/ 421 #./11700~12000 yuan/ton

Huangpu Port area/ Without oxygen 553 #/ 11200~11300 yuan/ton

Huangpu Port area/ Oxygen 553 #/ 10900~11100 yuan/ton

Huangpu Port area/ 441 #./11400~11600 yuan/ton

Kunming area/ Without oxygen 553 #/ 11000~11100 yuan/ton

Kunming area/ Oxygen 553 #/ 11200~11300 yuan/ton

Kunming area/ 441 #./11600~11700 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is relatively light. After the holiday, the overall market demand has not improved significantly, and the supply side’s destocking performance is poor. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly experience slight fluctuations, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market experienced a consolidation after a rise in December, with most spot prices of certain brands first rising and then fluctuating. As of December 31st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16516.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of 3.99% compared to early December.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: In December, the load changes of domestic PC aggregation enterprises were limited. At the beginning of the month, companies such as Jiaxing Emperor gradually returned, and the industry average operating rate increased from 75% at the beginning of the month to over 80%, and then slightly fell back to 78%. The average weekly production remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons. The on-site supply of goods is still abundant, and the mismatch between supply and demand remains unchanged. The high inventory has led to cautious pricing by manufacturers, while the market supply side has provided average support for PC prices.

In terms of raw materials: After a previous downturn, the bisphenol A market rebounded significantly in December. At the beginning of the month, some companies underwent maintenance and there was news of delayed production of new equipment, which led to favorable news on the supply side. At the same time, the arrival of raw material phenol cargo at the port was delayed at the end of November, and the main downstream PC and epoxy resin stocks were stable. Influenced by multiple favorable factors, the price of bisphenol A rebounded. But as the bulls gradually ran out, the upward trend of bisphenol A prices was hindered, and the support for PC costs first strengthened and then flattened.

In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not improved for a long time, and the overall trend has been relatively weak in the previous period. At the end of the year, some export orders were placed in the market, and the overall logic of weak rigid demand procurement continues. The wait-and-see sentiment of industry players is biased. As the holiday approaches, downstream factories are stocking up to maintain production, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods. Therefore, purchasing and chasing price increases should be cautious. The slow circulation of goods in the market has limited changes, and the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.

Future forecast

After the PC market rose in December, it was sorted out. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently stagnant and consolidating, maintaining support for PC costs. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has basically leveled off, and the supply remains loose and unchanged. The high level of inventory in the industry has limited changes, and there has been no substantial improvement in supply pressure. The downstream stocking pattern has not changed, making it difficult to drive market trends. Business Society believes that the positive news for raw materials is gradually dissipating, the holiday market is becoming stronger, and Zhejiang Petrochemical has plans to increase its load. It is expected that there will be downward pressure on the PC market in the future, and the market may turn weak and consolidate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been fluctuating and consolidating since December. As of December 31, the spot rubber market in China was around 16890 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.80% from 17027 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The high point during the cycle was 17740 yuan/ton, and the low point was 16604 yuan/ton.

The weather in the main production areas of natural rubber continued to improve in early December, and the supply of raw materials from domestic and foreign production areas gradually increased. In the early stage, the price of natural rubber raw materials fell, and the heavy rain in Thailand at the end of the month affected the rubber cutting process. The international price of natural rubber raw materials has rebounded. Overall, the high prices of natural rubber raw materials at home and abroad in December were the main trend, which still provides some support for natural rubber prices. As of December 31st, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area is around 17200 yuan/ton.

The natural rubber inventory continued to increase in December, which had a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of December 29, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 477600 tons, an increase of 54100 tons from 423500 tons at the end of November.

Since December, downstream tire production has remained stable with slight fluctuations, and demand is facing the urgent support of the natural rubber market. As of December 27th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region has increased to about 6.20%.

Market forecast: Currently, domestic and international raw materials are in the peak season for rubber production, and raw material prices may continue to decline slightly in the later period; Under the policy of promoting consumption, all tire enterprises are operating steadily, which provides certain support for natural rubber; But the slight increase in Tianjian inventory has brought certain pressure to the market mentality. Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience a weak and volatile downward trend in the short term.