China’s domestic ethanol market is stable

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of September 10, the average price of ethanol in the domestic market was 5420 yuan/ton, which rose by 0.74% annually and fell by 1.89% year on year. Domestic ethanol market is mainly stable, and some areas are strong.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic alcohol market is stable and small. Some small factories in Northeast Heilongjiang are out of stock, Friendship factories are out of business, big factories intend to bid, but East China Ethyl Ester factory overhaul and price reduction in central China market, negative mentality of all parties, maintaining a stable wait-and-see mood at present, enterprises in Jilin area carry out more contracts and orders, enterprise inventory is not high; In the short term, South China is supported by a favorable supply side, and prices remain firm. In Guangdong, enterprises have few start-ups and good supply side prices are firm.

Industry chain: corn: corn price fluctuates narrowly. Weather effects have led to increased expectations of maize yield reduction, increased planting costs, reduced sales of near-storage auctions, support of pre-festival demand in peak season, and the introduction of pig breeding policy. The price trend of maize is mainly strong shocks. At present, the market of spring maize continues to increase, and the supply chain remains adequate in general. Pig production continued to maintain a low level, seriously affecting the support of maize demand. We anticipate that the overall price stability in the near future will be mainly weak, and there will still be no obvious basis for price rise and fall. After mid-September, the probability of price rise will be high.

Ethyl acetate: The domestic market of ethyl acetate has increased significantly. The ethyl acetate plant in Yankuang Mine, Shandong Province, stopped during the weekend, and the early delivery of goods to export and South China ship cargo, resulting in no inventory around the spot supply. Influenced by the rising price, the suppliers in East China and North China pushed up the offer. Delays in shipments in South China market and local suppliers mainly follow the upward trend led to a significant overall increase in the domestic ethyl acetate market. At present, the restart time of parking equipment in Yanzhou Mine is uncertain, and the market of ethyl acetate is still rising.

3. Future Market Forecast

Large factories in Northeast Jilin area have stable production, more execution of contract orders, low enterprise inventory, parking situation in small factories in Heilongjiang Province, holidays are approaching, and enterprises’shipment mentality under transportation constraints are positively expected to operate in the short-term market consolidation; security inspection in Henan area has no clear evacuation date, downstream demand is weak, forecast Short-term market disadvantaged consolidation; Eastern China is expected to be disadvantaged in the short-term market consolidation due to downstream chemical plant shutdown; Southern China enterprises are supported by good supply side, prices remain firm, and Northeast supply has the intention to clear tanks in the near future. Ethanol analysts from business associations predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market will show a trend of regionalization.