Price data
According to the latest monitoring data of business associations, the average price of mainstream refineries of domestic naphtha was 6077.50 yuan/ton as of August 31, up 0.83% from 6027.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and rebounded after the price of refined naphtha fell this month.
| Thiourea dioxide |
The naphtha commodity index on August 31 was 75.01, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.91% from the peak of 102.62 points in the cycle (2012-09-24), and up 77.58% from the low of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-01 to date)
II. Analysis of Influencing Factors
Products: Refining naphtha prices rebounded after falling this month. Typhoon Lichma in mid-August affected the shutdown of some refining units. Refining naphtha prices remained high this month. At present, the mainstream price of hydronaphtha is about 6000 yuan/ton. On August 30, the price gap between naphtha and Brent crude oil fell to a nearly two-and-a-half-month low of $10.75 per ton in the Asian light distillate oil market, which was hampered by oversupply concerns.
| Thiourea |
Industry Chain: Upstream: According to the monitoring of business associations, WTI crude oil in the United States was 58.58 dollars per barrel at the beginning of the month, 56.71 dollars per barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase and decrease of – 3.19%; Brent crude oil was 65.17 dollars per barrel at the beginning of the month, 61.08 dollars per barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase and decrease of – 6.28%. In August, Sino-US trade relations fluctuated, global risky assets plunged, OPEC and other firm attitudes towards production reduction, as well as U.S. crude oil production and stock boost and other factors affected the trend of international crude oil prices. Downstream: Some Sinopec refineries are scheduled for September, and some suppliers are actively stocking up. According to the monitoring of business associations, affected by the rise of crude oil in the upstream, the decline of port stock and the improvement of market turnover, the domestic toluene market has been in a good general trend this month. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 5800-5850 yuan/ton; the xylene market continues to rise, and the mainstream price in East China is about 6200-6250 yuan/ton. At present, the domestic stock of pure benzene is relatively small, and the Korean plant overhaul and European overhaul are not yet finished. Global supply is tight, which boosts the market. At present, the price of pure benzene is 5200-5300 yuan/ton. In the PX market, the domestic PX market price at the end of the month was 6 650 yuan/ton, the overall decline was 5.0%, and the PX external price maintained a downward trend.
Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in August 2019, there were five kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector, of which more than 5% increased, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The top three commodities were MTBE (8.16%), gasoline (2.24%) and methanol (1.22%). There are 11 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dimethyl ether (-9.03%), liquefied natural gas (-7.08%) and Brent crude oil (-6.28%). This month’s average rise and fall was -1.52%.
3. Future Market Forecast
Energy analysts from business associations believe that naphtha is supported by the rise in international oil prices. Some refineries of Sinopec are scheduled for September and some suppliers are actively stocking up. With the coming of National Day, traffic will be regulated, environmental protection and production restriction. It is expected that the price of naphtha will rise in September, with an average price range of 5900-6300 yuan/ton.
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