According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China region rose this week (4.21-4.27), with an average market price of 258920 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 263010 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 1.58%.
From a macro perspective, the United States announced the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods, covering key areas of tin consumption such as home appliances and consumer electronics. This measure has led to a weakening trend in export expectations for related products.
On the supply side, Alphamine officially announced that its Bisie mine is resuming production and operation in an orderly and phased manner as planned. However, given the significant delay in the resumption of tin ore production in Myanmar, the market’s expectation of overall tin ore supply tightening still persists.
On the demand side, the current trading performance of the tin ingot market is relatively quiet, and the trading heat has not significantly increased. Downstream enterprises’ procurement behavior is based on rigid demand, and when prices are in the low range, the demand for replenishment is timely released, driving a small amount of trading activity. However, as the price of tin ingots gradually rises, the trading activity in the spot market has significantly decreased, and the willingness of buyers and sellers to trade has cooled down. The procurement strategy of downstream solder enterprises also shows the dominant feature of rigid demand, meeting daily production needs while moderately replenishing inventory in combination with market price fluctuations. It is worth noting that the “trade in” policy continues to exert efforts, forming positive incentives for consumers’ purchasing intentions and indirectly driving demand for end products such as household appliances; In addition, the production schedule of the home appliance industry is running at a high level, and the production scale continues to expand. The combined effect of the two provides potential support for the demand side of tin ingots, and the potential for future demand release is worth paying attention to.
comprehensive analysis
The progress of resuming tin ore production in Myanmar is significantly lagging behind market expectations, coupled with limited recovery of Indonesian exports. The supply gap is difficult to effectively fill through internal adjustments or external supplements in the short term, and the global tin resource supply shortage is expected to continue in the short term. Expected to fluctuate widely within the tin price range.
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