According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as the end of April approaches, the domestic PP market is weakly consolidating, and the prices of most brand products have fallen. As of April 23rd, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7523.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.53% compared to the price level at the beginning of April.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In early April, the US tariff policy was implemented, with tariff rates constantly changing and increasing to unprecedented heights. The tariff trade war launched by Trump has had a huge impact on the global economy. Crude oil, as a heavily affected area, has experienced a sharp drop in prices. However, recently some members of OPEC+have announced plans to compensate for overproduction, and the expectation of production contraction is clear. Combined with the increasingly tense geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe and the impact of various boosting factors, oil prices have rebounded from low levels. At the same time, domestic propane prices have risen due to the impact of trade decoupling, but the increasing cost pressure has dragged down the production and profitability of PDH manufacturing enterprises. The downstream production position of propylene is not high, and there is insufficient chasing power on site, resulting in price fluctuations after rising. Overall, the prices of various raw materials at the end of April have slightly rebounded to support the cost of PP.
Supply side:
Recently, domestic PP enterprises have experienced significant fluctuations in their workload, and the market supply has remained generally abundant. Overall, the current industry’s overall load level has slightly decreased by about 1% to 78% compared to the middle of the month. The average weekly production in China is about 750000 tons. Recently, Zhongsha Tianjin, Changling Petrochemical and other enterprises have successively entered maintenance. Later, Zhejiang Petrochemical and middling coal Yulin have announced their parking plans. On the whole, maintenance is intensive, loss of capacity is expanded, and supply and contraction are expected in the future. There is an upward trend in the supply side’s support for PP spot prices.
In terms of demand:
Recently, the demand for PP has been relatively weak, and on-site trading has maintained a weak rigid demand pattern. In terms of plastic weaving, the consumption level of terminal enterprises has generally stabilized. The demand for PP in fields such as architecture and agriculture is gradually increasing with the warming of temperatures. However, under the influence of international news such as equivalent tariffs imposed by the United States, the global economy has been greatly impacted and future uncertainty has increased. The export of downstream PP products in China is hindered, and buyers tend to maintain production with scattered small orders. Although there has been no significant increase in new orders in the market. Overall, the demand for PP weakened at the end of April.
Future forecast
Recently, the domestic PP market prices have been weakly adjusted. From a fundamental perspective, the comprehensive performance of upstream raw materials on PP support has risen at a low level, with abundant industry supply and weak demand support in consumption. The current industry trend is focused on the struggle between supply contraction and weak consumption, with cautious on-site operations and frequent avoidance of suspicion in small orders. In the short term, the supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to improve. It is recommended to closely monitor the situation of tariffs and the flow of goods.
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