According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the cost is bearish and the market price of polyester filament has fallen sharply. On April 11th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6400-6700 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 7700-8200 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 6700-6900 yuan/ton.
In terms of cost, entering April, international crude oil experienced a “cliff like” decline, with WTI crude oil falling below $60 per barrel, hitting a four-year low. PTA and MEG are downstream products of crude oil, and their prices are highly correlated with crude oil. From January to March 2025, the correlation coefficient between PTA and MEG prices rose to 0.65, and the decline in crude oil led to a compression of PTA processing fees to 296 yuan/ton, while MEG’s coal based profit loss expanded to 239 yuan/ton. The sharp decline in crude oil prices has raised concerns in the market about a global economic recession, and expectations for textile export demand have weakened. The US Department of Energy has lowered its forecast for the growth rate of crude oil demand in 2025, coupled with the Federal Reserve maintaining a high interest rate policy, further curbing end consumption.
In terms of demand, since April, the operating rate of polyester filament has remained at a high level of 95.5%, with sufficient capacity released. But top companies are trying to alleviate inventory pressure by reducing production to maintain prices (such as the 1.6 million ton plant renovation and parking in Xiaoshan area) and adjusting pricing models (such as the fixed price policy). The downstream textile industry shows the characteristic of “not thriving during peak season”. The operating rate of weaving machines in April was 62.5%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the available days of raw material inventory in enterprises decreased to 12.65 days, indicating a low purchasing willingness. In terms of exports, the United States imposed tariffs, which led to the rise of China’s textile export costs and the transfer of some orders to Southeast Asia, but the growth of demand in the “the Belt and Road” market (such as India and Vietnam) formed a hedge.
Overall, the polyester filament market is under triple pressure of declining costs, weak demand, and high inventory levels, resulting in stable but weak prices. In the future, it is necessary to focus on the trend of crude oil, the pace of terminal order recovery, and enterprise differentiation strategies. In the short term, there is limited room for price rebound, and Business Society believes that the polyester filament market will maintain a weak operation in the short term.
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