Market summary: New production capacity has not been released yet, some existing facilities are undergoing maintenance or load reduction, and the market is expected to improve in this stage. Spot market offers continue to rise. As of April 3rd, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is 9200-9300 yuan/ton, an increase of 200-300 yuan/ton compared to last week. Short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 8950-9150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to last week.
In terms of supply, factories in the East China region have reduced their load or planned maintenance, while new production capacity has not been released in the short term (trial operation stage), resulting in a partial reduction in supply and continuing to provide conditions for market growth. But the overall supply in the north is still relatively abundant, and the market is following the trend of slow growth. According to statistics, as of April 3rd, the average capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry was 80.13%, a decrease of 2.56% compared to last week.
Inventory decline: After the previous low price inventory reduction, the industry’s inventory has slightly decreased. According to statistics, as of April 3, the inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories was about 48000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from last week.
General demand: The ABS production capacity utilization rate of the downstream major industry of acrylonitrile is 68.6%, a decrease of 4.2% from last week, and raw materials are purchased on demand. On the other hand, in terms of downstream acrylic fiber, the weekly production rate is around 70%. Although the production rate has reached a high point this year, the issuance of new orders is limited. In addition, due to macroeconomic factors, foreign trade orders are unstable, resulting in relatively average overall demand.
Market forecast: The domestic acrylonitrile market price has slightly adjusted, and the positive support brought by local supply reduction is gradually being digested. At the same time, there is still an expectation of new production capacity being put into operation, and downstream demand remains overall. The market may continue to have insufficient upward momentum, and attention should be paid to the fluctuation of raw material propylene prices in the near future.
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