According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market fluctuated and slightly rose recently (3.18-3.26). As of March 26, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 16636 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from 16571 yuan/ton on the 18th, with a low point of 16502 yuan/ton and a high point of 16656 yuan/ton during the cycle. High price consolidation of raw materials; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory continues to increase; The downstream construction is basically stable; The volatile consolidation of the Shanghai rubber market has led to a slight adjustment in the spot market of natural rubber.
At present, foreign natural rubber supply will gradually enter an increasing production period from a low production period. The Yunnan production area in China will be the first to enter a trial cutting period, while production areas such as Hainan, Vietnam, and northeastern Thailand in China will still stop cutting. Currently, natural rubber raw material prices are consolidating at a high level, and it is expected that they may decline in the future. As of March 24th, the price of Thai glue was 68.00 baht/kg, slightly higher than the 67.00 baht/kg on March 18th.
Natural rubber inventory continues to increase slightly, but overall it remains at a high level. As of March 23, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 602300 tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons or 0.5% compared to the previous period.
Supply and demand side: Downstream tire production is basically stable, mainly supporting the demand for natural rubber market. As of March 21st, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 8.30%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.9% of the load.
Market forecast: When domestic and international raw material prices stabilize at a high level, but in the later stage, with the opening of some regions at home and abroad, the price of natural rubber raw materials may continue to fall. The downstream construction is gradually increasing, which provides some essential support for the demand for natural rubber, but the inventory of Tianjiao Port continues to grow slightly; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will weaken and consolidate in the later stage.
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