This week (March 17-21), the PTA market maintained a slight recovery. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 21, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4877 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.25% from the beginning of the week.
The geopolitical situation is wavering between tension and easing, and the volatility of the international crude oil market still provides cost support for PTA. As of March 20th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.07 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $71.47 per barrel.
The routine maintenance in the PX market in the second quarter brings good news. From April to May, there has been an increase in PX maintenance both domestically and internationally. According to the announced maintenance plan, there will be a maintenance scale of 6 million tons of equipment renewed domestically, and it is expected that there will be another 3.3 million tons of equipment under maintenance plan overseas. And there is a strong expectation of demand recovery, which will significantly improve the supply and demand pattern of PX and provide strong support for PTA.
From the perspective of PTA’s own supply, the maintenance plan for supply side equipment has gradually been implemented since March, and as of March 21, the operating rate of the domestic PTA industry is around 80%. However, the market circulation of goods is still relatively loose, resulting in a surplus of spot supply in the market, which is also the reason why PTA has not effectively boosted prices despite continuous destocking. Since March, PTA processing fees have improved compared to the previous month. It is expected that the scale of equipment maintenance will be slightly reduced in April, and subsequent equipment maintenance will decrease. The supply increment is expected to rebound.
In the downstream polyester market, some polyester bottle chip devices are planned to restart, and demand will increase. The trading atmosphere in the polyester filament market is generally average, and the room for further increase in operating load is limited. The pressure on polyester filament shipments in March will not decrease, and there is currently no plan for leading production companies to continue reducing production. The market supply is sufficient.
From the perspective of terminal weaving, there is currently a lack of cash flow in the process of adding and weaving, which is in a loss making state, suppressing the improvement of the production rate of adding and weaving, as well as the enthusiasm for stocking up. Currently, the production rate of weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is nearly 70%. The impact of international trade frictions still exists, and recently the issuance of textile foreign trade orders has been slow. There is a large flow of exhibition visitors, but the transaction volume is relatively low.
Business analysts believe that there is currently no unplanned news on the supply and demand side of PTA, and the overall PTA market lacks the latest major news guidance, following cost fluctuations in the short term.
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