Aluminum prices strengthen in February
Aluminum prices strengthened in February, but today they have decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 25, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20213.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.96% compared to the market average price of 20213.33 yuan/ton on February 1.
The market price today has dropped by about 200 yuan/ton compared to yesterday. The spot price of aluminum ingots (AL99.70) from Aluminum Corporation of China Limited in the East China market is 20390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; The external quotation for the South China market is 20380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; The Southwest market quoted 20320 yuan/ton to the outside world, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; The Central Plains market quoted 20260 yuan/ton to the outside world, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton.
In terms of futures, on February 25, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum closed at 20655 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60%.
Reasons for today’s aluminum price decline:
1. Expected loosening of Russian aluminum ban
On February 24th, the Russian President announced that Russia is ready to supply 2 million tons of aluminum to the US market. The market’s expectation of Rusal returning to the market has risen.
2. The conflict between Russia-Ukraine conflict has eased, and energy has risen in the early stage, pushing up the cost of aluminum ingots in Europe, thus supporting the loose expectation of aluminum prices.
3. Seasonal accumulation trend of domestic aluminum ingots:
Aluminum ingot inventory maintains a trend of depletion, and the rate of depletion far exceeds expectations. Data shows that as of February 24th, China’s aluminum ingot inventory has accumulated 24000 to 880000 tons, and aluminum bars have accumulated 6000 to 334500 tons.
Other inventory data: LME aluminum inventory decreased by 4000 tons to 535900 tons on February 24th, and on February 25th, Shanghai Aluminum’s main contract warehouse receipt was 118380 tons, an increase of 2723 tons from the previous day.
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