Market Overview: This week, the domestic acrylonitrile spot market prices fluctuated and fell, and downstream industries resisted high raw material prices, resulting in stagnant buying. Under bearish sentiment, suppliers actively shipped. As of February 14th, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is around 11300-11600 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 11000-11500 yuan/ton.
Supply growth: From a news perspective, there is an expected increase in supply, with existing equipment being negatively charged and new production capacity being planned for deployment. As of February 13th, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 76.47%, an increase of 1.35% compared to the same period last week.
Inventory controllable: According to statistics, as of February 12th, the inventory of acrylonitrile factories in China was 37300 tons, an increase of+0.1 million tons from last week, and the industry inventory is still controllable in the short term.
Flat demand: Currently, buying is gradually recovering, but downstream industries have become increasingly resistant to high raw material prices due to losses, resulting in stagnant buying.
Cost wise: International oil prices continue to decline, which is bearish for the market sentiment. And currently, downstream centralized replenishment has ended, and enterprise shipments are tending to be flat, which has a certain degree of suppression on price trends. As of February 13th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 6770-6900 yuan/ton, with average cost support.
Market forecast: Overall, acrylonitrile production profits are considerable, factory production enthusiasm is high, supply side variables still exist, and suppliers are actively shipping under bearish sentiment. Low price offers in the spot market continue to appear, and it is expected that acrylonitrile prices will weakly decline in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the operation of factory facilities and changes in downstream demand.
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