According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market in February was mainly organized, with limited price adjustments for most brand products. As of February 12th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7520 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.51% compared to the price level at the beginning of January.
Price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In terms of remote upstream crude oil in the first ten days of the month, due to the imposition of tariffs by the United States at the beginning of the month and Trump’s demand for OPEC to increase production and reduce prices, as well as a significant increase in US crude oil inventories, market concerns have increased. In addition, the recent easing of international geopolitical relations in Europe has led to a significant drop in crude oil market prices. Overall, the upstream support for PP has weakened. Due to the low pre holiday prices and reduced supply, propylene has been operating relatively strongly, but recently it has also been affected by crude oil and has been stagnant and consolidating. Overall, the PP raw material market fluctuated in early February, and there is a downward expectation for the current cost value, making it difficult to obtain positive guidance.
Supply side:
After the holiday, the load of domestic PP enterprises has slightly decreased compared to before the holiday. Overall, the industry’s overall load level remained stable at around 80% compared to the end of last month, a 3% decrease from before the holiday. The average weekly production in China is over 750000 tons, and the expected PP shipment volume is reduced, but the market supply is still abundant. Overall, the supply side provides moderate support for PP spot prices.
In terms of demand:
Before the holiday, the demand for PP tends to be weak and rigid. Before and after the Spring Festival holiday, the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice was poor, and the consumption level of plastic weaving also declined. The stocking intensity of terminal enterprises is average, and the purchasing logic tends to digest inventory. The willingness to continue building warehouses is low, and the operation tends to be short-term buy as you go. The resumption of work in enterprises after the holiday is slow and the load is low. Overall, the demand side has shown weak performance.
Future forecast
In early February, the domestic PP market prices were sorted and operated. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is average. The industry supply remains abundant. According to consumer feedback, businesses are gradually returning to the market after the holiday, but there is a lack of buying momentum on the market. In the short term, it is expected that the speed of PP price rebound may lag behind.
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