Price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market in China was generally stable in January, with some spot prices of certain brands experiencing a slight decline. As of January 14th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 16466.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.30% compared to January 1st.
Cause analysis
On the supply side: Currently, domestic PC aggregation enterprises have a stable pattern of load absorption at the beginning of the month, with very limited changes. The industry average operating rate has been slightly adjusted from around 77.5% to 77%. The average weekly production remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons, and the on-site supply is still abundant, with no change in the supply-demand mismatch pattern. The high inventory has led to cautious pricing by manufacturers, while the market supply side has provided average support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that after the significant recovery of bisphenol A at the end of last year, the bulls gradually ran out in early January, and downstream demand remained stable. After the upward movement of bisphenol A prices was blocked, it entered a consolidation market. The support for PC cost has weakened.
On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the overall trend continues to be weak at the end of last year. At the end of last year, there were some export orders placed in advance in the market. Currently, the overall trend is returning to weak rigid demand procurement, and industry players tend to be cautious and cautious. As the Lunar New Year holiday approaches, pre holiday stocking is gradually being completed, and some downstream factories are on holiday. The load on end enterprises is declining, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods. The slow circulation of goods in the market has limited changes, and the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
The PC market remained stable with a slight decline in mid January. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently maintaining consolidation, with average support for PC costs. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has basically leveled off, and the supply remains loose and unchanged. The high level of inventory in the industry has limited changes, and there has been no substantial improvement in supply pressure. The downstream pre holiday stocking is gradually coming to an end, which has insufficient driving force on the market situation. It is expected that with the increase of delisting of practitioners in the future, PC may return to a calm pre holiday market and focus on consolidation and operation.
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