Market Overview: In 2025, the acrylonitrile market has rebounded and stopped falling. Due to multiple factors such as tight supply, low capacity utilization, increased demand in the spot market, and manufacturers raising prices, the acrylonitrile market has seen a significant increase. As the Spring Festival approaches, there has been a tail up trend. As of the weekend, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is 9600-9750 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 9350-9550 yuan/ton.
Supply shortage: In 2024, the acrylonitrile market was in a state of oversupply, resulting in production losses and inventory pressure in the middle of the year. As a result, some acrylonitrile factories voluntarily reduced production, and major factories in East China gradually reduced their load, leading to a continuous shortage of supply in the region. Due to the unexpected parking of a set in Shandong this week, the already tight supply situation has been further exacerbated. The main factories have seen a significant increase in their listed prices, with a focus on maintaining contract supply. It is reported that some factories have suspended spot sales. There is a shortage of spot resources, and market negotiations are further exploring.
Low social inventory: The acrylonitrile market will be relatively sluggish in 2024. Although the acrylonitrile market price will continue to rise in the second half of the year, the profit situation for traders is poor, and the market situation is difficult to grasp. In addition, the current logistics situation is relatively abundant, which indicates a late holiday time, leading to insufficient stocking willingness of operators and low social inventory.
Increased demand: Since the National Day holiday, domestic ABS manufacturers have theoretically turned losses into profits, achieving a profitable state, which has increased the enthusiasm of production enterprises to start work, and some enterprises have moderately increased their operating load. Secondly, as we enter the fourth quarter, some companies are facing annual production task assessments, and profitability can better drive manufacturers to actively increase their operating rates. Finally, thanks to the improvement in home appliance orders, some ABS manufacturers have seen an increase in orders, further boosting production enthusiasm. And in 2025, the government announced the continuation of the subsidy program for car and home appliances trade in, which also stimulated the ABS market to continue operating at a high level.
Market forecast: Currently, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream factories still have inventory demand, but the spot market supply is limited, and some factories are holding back on sales, and there are still uncertain factors in the supply side. Therefore, the acrylonitrile market will maintain an upward trend before the holiday, and spot market prices will mainly follow factory quotes.
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