According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of acrylic acid in the market will show a narrow range of fluctuations in 2024. Under the constraints of cost pressure and supply and demand factors, the market price fluctuates between 6100-7400 yuan/ton. Especially in December, due to tight supply, the price of acrylic acid showed a year-end upward trend, with a significant increase in price.
（1） Market Review of 2024
From the beginning of the year to the middle of the year (January to June)
At the beginning of the year, the price of acrylic acid was relatively low, but over time, the price gradually increased. Especially in April and June, there was a significant increase in the price of acrylic acid. For example, the price of acrylic acid in April was 6800 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% year-on-year; In June, the price of acrylic acid reached 7000 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year.
Mid year to year-end (July to December)
Entering the second half of the year, the price of acrylic acid continues to show an upward trend. In July, the overall market price of acrylic acid showed a downward trend, with an average market price of about 6300 yuan/ton in mainstream regions, but then the price quickly rebounded. From the end of November to the beginning of December, there was a significant slight increase in the market price of acrylic acid, especially on December 24th, the average price of the mainstream market in China has reached 7500 yuan/ton, showing a significant increase compared to previous days.
Supply side: Global acrylic acid production capacity continues to increase by 2025
As of the latest statistical data, the global production capacity of acrylic acid has approached 9 million tons. Among them, Northeast Asia accounts for about 60% of the production capacity, while China holds 38% of the market share, becoming an important producer of acrylic acid worldwide. North America and Europe respectively occupy 15% and 16% of the production capacity.
In recent years, the global production capacity of acrylic acid has shown a steady growth trend. This is mainly due to the expansion of production capacity in the Asian market, especially in the Chinese market.
It is predicted that by 2025, the global production capacity of acrylic acid will experience significant growth, with the potential to increase to 10.35 million tons per year. As the main producer of acrylic acid in the world, China’s capacity expansion has a significant impact on the growth of global acrylic acid production capacity. It is predicted that China’s newly added acrylic acid production capacity will account for 66% of the newly added capacity in the Asian region, demonstrating China’s strong strength in the field of acrylic acid production.
Stable growth rate of acrylic acid production capacity in China by 2025
Capacity and output growth: In recent years, China’s acrylic acid production capacity has continued to grow steadily. As of the end of 2022, China’s acrylic acid production capacity has reached 3.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of about 14.04%. By 2023, the production capacity will further increase to 4.08 million tons, and the output will grow to 2.54 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. By 2024, the production capacity of acrylic acid will further increase to 4.4 million tons, and it is expected to exceed 5 million tons and reach 5.14 million tons by 2025. These data indicate that China’s acrylic acid industry has strong production capacity and market supply capability.
Expected global production of acrylic acid in 2025
There is currently no definite number for the forecast of global acrylic acid production in 2025, as the forecast is influenced by various factors including capacity planning, market demand, raw material prices, production costs, global economic situation, policy changes, etc. However, based on existing industry trends and market analysis, we can attempt to make a rough prediction of global acrylic acid production by 2025.
Based on historical growth trends, it is predicted that the global production of acrylic acid in 2021 will be 7.65 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.37%. In 2023, the global production of acrylic acid has reached approximately 8.55 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. If we assume an annual growth rate of around 5% from 2022 to 2025, the global production of acrylic acid is expected to reach approximately 9.5 million tons by 2025.
At present, China’s acrylic acid industry is still expanding its production capacity. According to incomplete statistics, the planned and under construction acrylic acid production capacity in China is 940000 tons from 2025 to 2026. If successfully completed and put into operation, it is expected that the production capacity of acrylic acid will steadily increase in the next two years, and its production capacity is expected to exceed 5 million tons by 2026.
2025 Acrylic Acid New Production Capacity Project
Guangdong Maoming Acrylic Acid Industrial Park Project
Project scale: The total investment is about 11.5 billion yuan. The first phase plans to construct a 50000 ton/year acrylic acid plant and 100000 ton/year butyl acrylate (also known as 80000 ton/year butyl acrylate). The second phase plans to construct 960000 ton/year acrylic acid plant, 800000 ton/year acrylic acid plant (also known as 750000 ton/year butyl acrylate, 180000 ton/year octyl acrylate), and 540000 ton/year SAP plant.
In 2025, the acrylic acid industry will see the commissioning of multiple new production capacity projects and steady growth of existing production capacity. Against the backdrop of high downstream demand potential, technological innovation, and increasing environmental requirements, the acrylic acid industry will continue to maintain a steady growth trend.
Forecast of apparent consumption of acrylic acid in China in 2025
From the perspective of demand, in recent years, the overall demand for acrylic acid in China has shown a steady growth trend. The apparent consumption of acrylic acid in China was 2.415 million tons in 2022, 2.65 million tons in 2023, and 2.77 million tons in 2024. With the recovery of demand for acrylic acid, it is predicted to grow to 3.1 million tons by 2025.
Proportion of demand products in China by 2025
The downstream products of acrylic acid in 2025 mainly include acrylic esters SAP、 Cleaning aids, special acrylic esters, water treatment agents.
Among them, the demand for acrylic ester accounts for the highest proportion, reaching 60%; Next is the high water absorbent resin SAP, which accounts for 20% of the demand. From the downstream field of superabsorbent polymers (SAP), about 87% of SAP in China is used for hygiene products, mainly including sanitary napkins, diapers, etc. Acrylic esters can react with various alcohols to produce acrylic esters, including methyl ester, ethyl ester, butyl ester, and isooctyl ester (with butyl ester being the most widely used). After polymerization, they are widely used in industries such as coatings, adhesives, and textiles. The proportion of acrylic ester used in the production of coating products is 36%, and the proportion used in adhesive products is 31%. Both are the main downstream products of acrylic ester, accounting for over 65%.
Proportion of regional demand
From a regional distribution perspective, the Asia Pacific region is the main growth point for global demand for acrylic acid, accounting for over 50%, while the total demand from China and India accounts for about 70% of this region. This indicates that China holds an important position in the global demand market for acrylic acid.
Overall Import and Export Status of Acrylic Acid in 2024
Import situation: From January to November 2024, the cumulative import volume of acrylic acid in China was 21977.69 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 37.21% compared to the same period last year. But in November, the import volume increased significantly, reaching 4558.35 tons, a month on month increase of 101.65%. In terms of average import price, the average import price of acrylic acid in November was 5717.16 yuan/ton.
Export situation: From January to November 2024, the cumulative export volume of acrylic acid in China was 101401.38 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.21% compared to the same period last year. Although the overall export volume has decreased, the monthly export volume still fluctuates. In terms of average export price, the average export price of acrylic acid from January to November 2024 was 875.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 170.94 US dollars/ton or 16.34% compared to the same period last year.
Main import and export countries/regions
Importing country/region: South Korea is the largest source country for China’s acrylic acid imports, accounting for 55.57%; Next is Japan, accounting for 43.21%.
Exporting country/region: Taiwan, China, China has the largest export volume of acrylic acid, accounting for 26.73% of the total export volume; Next is South Korea, which accounts for 18.70%; The third is the United Arab Emirates, accounting for 10.26%.
Import and export prices and trends
Import price: The average import price of acrylic acid in each month of 2024 has fluctuated, but overall it has remained relatively stable.
Export price: The average export price of acrylic acid in 2024 has decreased compared to 2023, which has affected the overall export quantity of acrylic acid. But with changes in market supply and demand, export prices are expected to be adjusted in the future.
Future prospects:
With the gradual commissioning of domestic acrylic acid plants, it is expected that the production capacity of acrylic acid will increase significantly by 2025. This will further affect the supply and demand relationship and price trend of domestic and international acrylic acid markets. At the same time, the growth of domestic downstream production capacity is limited, and the demand growth rate is slower than the growth rate of raw materials, so the future export volume may face certain challenges.
Inventory and supply-demand balance forecast: Inventory will maintain a low supply-demand balance or be tight
Inventory situation
Historical inventory level: In January 2022, the social inventory of acrylic acid was only 5000 tons, reaching a new low in nearly five years. This indicates that the inventory level of the acrylic acid market has been consistently low.
Future inventory forecast: Due to limited new supply in the acrylic acid and ester industry and steady growth in demand, it can be predicted that the inventory level of the acrylic acid market will remain low in 2025.
Supply-demand balance forecast
Supply and demand balance: Taking into account both supply and demand, it can be predicted that the acrylic acid market will maintain a state of supply and demand balance or slightly tight by 2025.
Price trend: In a state of supply-demand balance or tightness, the prices of acrylic acid and esters may remain relatively stable or slightly increase.
In summary, the inventory of the acrylic acid market will remain at a low level in 2025, with a steady increase in supply capacity and strong demand. In a state of supply-demand balance or tightness, the prices of acrylic acid and esters may remain relatively stable or slightly increase.
In the short term, the inventory level of acrylic acid directly affects its market supply situation. When inventory is tight, a decrease in market supply may lead to price increases; On the contrary, sufficient inventory may lead to a decrease in prices. This supply-demand imbalance will lead to significant fluctuations in the price of acrylic acid in the market.
In the long run, the balanced development of supply and demand will have a significant impact on the price trend of acrylic acid. However, due to the uncertainty of the market caused by various factors, it is difficult to provide accurate predictions. However, we can predict the market price of acrylic acid between 6500-9000 yuan/ton in 2025 based on current market trends and supply and demand conditions.
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