Price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market experienced a consolidation after a rise in December, with most spot prices of certain brands first rising and then fluctuating. As of December 31st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16516.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of 3.99% compared to early December.
Cause analysis
On the supply side: In December, the load changes of domestic PC aggregation enterprises were limited. At the beginning of the month, companies such as Jiaxing Emperor gradually returned, and the industry average operating rate increased from 75% at the beginning of the month to over 80%, and then slightly fell back to 78%. The average weekly production remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons. The on-site supply of goods is still abundant, and the mismatch between supply and demand remains unchanged. The high inventory has led to cautious pricing by manufacturers, while the market supply side has provided average support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials: After a previous downturn, the bisphenol A market rebounded significantly in December. At the beginning of the month, some companies underwent maintenance and there was news of delayed production of new equipment, which led to favorable news on the supply side. At the same time, the arrival of raw material phenol cargo at the port was delayed at the end of November, and the main downstream PC and epoxy resin stocks were stable. Influenced by multiple favorable factors, the price of bisphenol A rebounded. But as the bulls gradually ran out, the upward trend of bisphenol A prices was hindered, and the support for PC costs first strengthened and then flattened.
In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not improved for a long time, and the overall trend has been relatively weak in the previous period. At the end of the year, some export orders were placed in the market, and the overall logic of weak rigid demand procurement continues. The wait-and-see sentiment of industry players is biased. As the holiday approaches, downstream factories are stocking up to maintain production, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods. Therefore, purchasing and chasing price increases should be cautious. The slow circulation of goods in the market has limited changes, and the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
After the PC market rose in December, it was sorted out. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently stagnant and consolidating, maintaining support for PC costs. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has basically leveled off, and the supply remains loose and unchanged. The high level of inventory in the industry has limited changes, and there has been no substantial improvement in supply pressure. The downstream stocking pattern has not changed, making it difficult to drive market trends. Business Society believes that the positive news for raw materials is gradually dissipating, the holiday market is becoming stronger, and Zhejiang Petrochemical has plans to increase its load. It is expected that there will be downward pressure on the PC market in the future, and the market may turn weak and consolidate.
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