1、 Trend analysis
According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices first rose and then fell in December. As of the end of the month, the copper price at the beginning of the month was 74036.67 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price rose to 74243.33 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.28% and a year-on-year increase of 7.17%.
According to the Business Society’s current chart, copper spot prices in December were mostly higher than futures prices, with the main contract being the expected price two months later.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory fluctuated narrowly at high levels in December. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 272725 tons, a decrease of 0.74% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, towards the end of 2024, the US economy has shown some resilience, with a decrease in the number of first-time applicants for unemployment benefits, which has brought a touch of warmth to the market. According to data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits fell to 219000 in the week ending December 21, lower than market expectations of 225000 and a decrease from the previous week’s 220000. The current unemployment rate of 4.2% appears relatively moderate in the context of the past decade, indicating that the US economy has maintained a relatively stable development trend in the uncertain overall environment.
Supply and demand side: The expectation of tight copper mine supply continues to exist, and the growth rate of refined copper production will slow down. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s electrolytic copper production in November was 1.133 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%; The cumulative production of electrolytic copper from January to November was 12.451 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. In terms of consumption, although December is the traditional off-season, it is expected that this year’s off-season will not be weak, which will have a certain impact on copper prices.
Overall, strong economic data from the United States supports the US dollar, putting pressure on copper prices; The domestic macro situation is improving, and the continuous decline in Shanghai copper inventory provides support for copper prices. In the short term, copper is expected to fluctuate and maintain stability.
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