According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has slightly declined recently (12.17-12.24). As of December 24th, the spot rubber market in China is around 16604 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.93% from 17284 yuan/ton on December 17th. Recently, raw material prices have been weak and declining; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory continues to increase; Downstream tire factories tend to stock up on demand to support the demand for natural rubber, but they have some resistance to high priced sources, leading to a decline in the natural rubber market at a high level.
December is currently the peak production season in major overseas production areas, and there is an expectation of seasonal increase in raw material output. Recently, with the improvement of weather conditions, rubber cutting work has gradually returned to normal, and raw material prices have fallen from high levels. As of December 24th, the price of Thai glue was 68.00 baht/kg, a significant decrease from 75.00 baht/kg on the 17th; As of December 24th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production areas was around 17200 yuan/ton, slightly lower than 17400 yuan/ton on the 17th.
Natural rubber inventory continues to show a state of accumulation. As of December 22, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 470000 tons, an increase of 18000 tons compared to the previous period.
Downstream tires mainly provide essential support for the natural rubber market. As of December 20th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.20% of the load.
Market forecast: The current domestic and international supply of raw materials is gradually increasing, and raw material prices are falling back from high levels; The tire market supports the demand for natural rubber, but is resistant to high priced sources of goods; The inventory of Tianjiao Port continues to increase; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly consolidate weakly in the short term.
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