Supply has increased, and the domestic acrylonitrile market has slightly declined

Market summary: This week, the operating rate of the acrylonitrile industry has increased, supply has increased, and some production enterprises have continuously lowered their factory prices, resulting in a slight decline in overall market prices. As of the weekend, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is 9600-9750 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 9350-9550 yuan/ton.

Supply side: As of December 20th, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 71.65%, an increase of 3.38% compared to the same period last week. The weekly output is 66300 tons, with a slight increase in supply. However, whether there will be a significant increase in supply in the later stage is still uncertain, and the industry inventory will continue to be low in the short term. As of December 20, 2024, the inventory of acrylonitrile plants was 29100 tons, an increase of+0.1 million tons from last week.

In terms of cost, the domestic propylene market as a whole showed a narrow range of fluctuations this week, with the mainstream closing in Shandong referring to 6880-7030 yuan/ton. The cost support is average.

In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has not changed much, and overall demand is relatively stable. Among them, the ABS capacity utilization rate is 71.70%, which is the same as last week.

Market outlook: Currently, the domestic acrylonitrile market is deadlocked and weak. As the end of the month approaches, attention is being paid to the release of factory settlement prices. There are still expectations of a decline in spot prices, but the short-term space may be limited. At present, there is a continuous differentiation in supply between the north and south, and the supply in the East China region is still not abundant. At the same time, the industry inventory is low, and the market still has conditions for rising prices. The market has limited room for decline in the short term.