According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been rising and then falling recently (12.1-12.17). As of December 17, the spot rubber market price in China’s natural rubber market was around 17284 yuan/ton, up 1.51% from 17027 yuan/ton on December 1, and the highest point during the cycle was 17740 yuan/ton. Recently, the price range of raw materials has fluctuated; Domestic Tianjian inventory continues to increase slightly; Downstream tire factories tend to stock up on demand to support the demand for natural rubber, but they have some resistance to high priced sources, and the natural rubber market is consolidating in the high range.
December is currently the peak production season in major overseas production areas, and there is an expectation of seasonal increase in raw material output. But at the beginning of the month, there was more rainfall in southern Thailand, which restricted the development of rubber cutting work. In the middle of the month, as the weather improved, rubber cutting work gradually returned to normal, and raw material prices fell slightly from high levels. As of December 17th, the price of Thai glue was 75.00 baht/kg, a significant increase from 69.00 baht/kg on the 1st; As of December 17th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area was around 17400 yuan/ton, slightly adjusted from 17500 yuan/ton on the 1st.
Natural rubber inventory continues to show a state of accumulation. As of December 15, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 452000 tons, an increase of 17300 tons compared to the previous period.
The downstream tire production is basically stable, and the downstream tires mainly provide support for the natural rubber market’s demand. As of December 13th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.7%.
Market forecast: The current domestic and international supply of raw materials is gradually increasing, and the prices of raw materials are slightly falling from high levels; The tire market supports the demand for natural rubber, but is resistant to high priced sources of goods; The inventory of Tianjian has slightly increased; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term.
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