According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 9th to 13th, MTBE prices rose from 5525 yuan/ton to 5612 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.58% during the period, a month on month increase of 5.40%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.98%. The domestic MTBE market is mainly volatile, and the price increase is particularly evident. The core driving factor for the wide upward trend in prices is the large delivery of gasoline shipping orders and the good support of new vehicle and shipping orders. Industry players have a high enthusiasm for purchasing related gasoline raw materials, and MTBE manufacturers are actively pushing up prices. However, near the end of the week, manufacturers’ shipments have weakened.
In terms of cost and crude oil, the rise in international oil prices is mainly due to the increased potential supply risks in the Middle East caused by the turbulent situation in Syria, coupled with improved economic and demand prospects in Asia. As of December 12th, the Brent price was $73.52 per barrel.
From the perspective of demand and downstream gasoline terminal demand, international crude oil futures have fluctuated upwards, and the gasoline market has shown strong performance. Refineries have increased their enthusiasm for pushing prices, and market transactions are mainly dominated by gasoline. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.
Supply side: There are currently no new start-up and shutdown devices, and the overall fluctuation of resource supply is limited. The short-term impact on domestic MTBE supply is mixed.
As of the close on December 12th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $12/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $731.49-733.49/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $3.75/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $812.99-813.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $0.95/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $825.37-825.73/ton (233.05-233.15 cents/gallon).
Future forecast: After the MTBE price rises to a temporary high, the resistance of industry players to high prices is increasing, and the market may have a moderate slight correction, but the space is limited. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market will consolidate narrowly in the short term.
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