Market Overview: The domestic acrylonitrile market continues to operate at a high level, with tight supply in the East and South China regions, and it is difficult to see significant growth in the short term. Under the support of low inventory, suppliers continue to raise prices, and the market continues to rise, with prices remaining firm and exploring upward.
On the supply side: During the week, major factories in East China were operating at low loads, and there was no significant increase in supply in the short term. Anqing Petrochemical resumed operation of two lines, but the 130000 ton acrylonitrile plant in Jihua (Jieyang) will be shut down for maintenance starting from December 3, and is expected to last for about 10 days. Therefore, the overall supply is still limited; Zhejiang Petrochemical will continue to operate a 260000 ton acrylonitrile plant this month, with a capacity utilization rate of 50%; The 200000 ton acrylonitrile plant of CNOOC Fudao Chemical will undergo maintenance on a production line starting from November 20th, and the start of work is also around 50%. The supply in the East China region continues to be tight, while the northern market is operating at full capacity. As of December 5th, the domestic acrylonitrile industry’s capacity utilization rate reached 71.14%, an increase of 1.36% compared to the same period last week. The inventory of acrylonitrile enterprises was 28300 tons, a decrease of 2400 tons from last week.
In terms of cost, domestic propylene prices have risen narrowly this week, with mainstream transactions in the Shandong propylene market referring to 6950-7050 yuan/ton. Although the Weiyuan PDH plant restarted this week, there is a shortage of propylene resources from North China and the west coast of the Yellow Sea in the Shandong region, which supports the price trend. However, the downstream profit space is narrow, coupled with an increase in plant load reduction and weak demand side follow-up, which still suppresses the price trend. It is expected that propylene may remain weak in the short term.
In terms of demand, downstream demand is basically stable. In mid to late November, the main downstream industry ABS stopped for maintenance at the first line of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II. In addition, Jilin Petrochemical’s operating load has further decreased, and the capacity utilization rate has not changed much this week. As of December 6th, it was 68.90%, an increase of 0.08% compared to last week.
Market expectation: Currently, the supply in East China is still limited in the short term, with major factories operating at low loads, and there is a possibility of further decline in the operating load of the Sirbond plant. Although the resources in the north are relatively abundant, factory inventory is not high, and spot prices are also firm and high. It is expected that the domestic acrylonitrile market will remain strong in the short term.
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