According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market remained generally stable in November, with some brand products experiencing a narrow price increase in the latter half of the year. As of November 30th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7621.43 yuan/ton, a rise or fall of+0.57% compared to the price level at the beginning of November.
Price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In terms of international crude oil, the market’s demand panic eased in early November due to the extension of OPEC’s production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day until the end of December. However, the subsequent mid month US election disrupted oil prices, smoothing out some of the favorable production cuts. The expected easing of the geopolitical situation at the end of the month has led to fluctuations in crude oil prices within the month, providing moderate support for the upstream of PP in the far end. In terms of propylene, domestic supply was first tight and then relaxed, with production capacity returning and imported goods entering the port for fermentation. Buyers tended to be cautious in their operations, and prices remained stagnant after rising. Propane’s upstream decline has stabilized within the month, inventory levels are not high, the market is relatively stable, and the cost of PDH production direction has leveled off. Overall, the raw materials for PP in November were stable or fluctuating, with moderate support on the cost side.
Supply side:
In November, the load level of domestic PP enterprises continued the downward trend from the previous period. Prior to this month, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Guangzhou Petrochemical, as well as Donghua Energy and CNOOC Shell, entered the plant maintenance plan in mid month. At the end of the month, Hebei Haiwei and Lianhong Xinke production lines underwent load reduction maintenance, reducing the overall industry load from 76.5% at the beginning of the month to below 68% at present. Domestic PP shipments have contracted significantly, while inventory levels have decreased from 765000 tons to 680000 tons. Although the supply is still abundant, some sources of goods have experienced structural contraction. Overall, the supply side provides strong support for PP spot prices.
In terms of demand:
The demand for PP in November remained stable with some weakness. At the beginning of the month, the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice remained stable. Affected by seasonality, some industry enterprises have experienced a slight decline in production, and the consumption level of plastic weaving has narrowly declined, resulting in a cooling of their willingness to hold positions; The consumption of pipes in the early stage has slightly rebounded due to the stimulation of real estate related policies, and the positive effects have gradually dissipated within the month; The consumption of BOPP film enterprises is strong, and the raw material reserves of terminal enterprises are generally stable with some increase. Overall, there are narrow fluctuations in various aspects of the demand side, which are generally weak and stable.
Future forecast
In November, the domestic PP market prices fluctuated narrowly and rose at the end of the month. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is average. However, the supply side maintenance continued to be released within the month, and there was a tight supply situation in some parts of the market. However, according to consumer feedback, industry players are cautious about future terminal consumption and are concerned about the offline production of new capacity at the end of the year. Trading on the market is average and there has been no large-scale price chasing. In the short term, it is expected that PP prices will remain stable with some increase.
| http://www.thiourea.net |