According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has been slightly weak and adjusted recently. As of November 25th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7226 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.23% from November 12th.
Prices are mainly driven by costs, and international crude oil prices have shifted upwards due to the escalation of the conflict between a European country and Ukraine, the decline in the US dollar exchange rate, and the shift in the center of gravity of crude oil prices. As of November 21st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.10 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.23 per barrel.
The domestic PTA market price has stabilized and stopped falling. As of November 22, the average market price in East China was 4832 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.76% from November 18. But PTA has started to accumulate inventory, and according to statistics, the social inventory is around 3.86 million tons. At present, 3 million tons of PTA plants in East China, including 1.5 million tons and 2.5 million tons of PTA plants, 4.5 million tons in South China, and 1.2 million tons in Northwest China, will be restarted and their load will be increased gradually. The current PTA operating rate in China is around 86%, and it will further increase in the future, with ample supply in the spot market.
On the demand side, it is currently the seasonal off-season, and it is difficult for there to be a significant increase in production in the future. Therefore, the demand for polyester staple fibers remains the main demand. Market demand is expected to further weaken. There is generally a lack of confidence in the future market, and most downstream procurement attitudes may still be cautious. In the fabric market, the speed of winter fabric and lining shipments has slowed down, and sporadic orders for spring and summer fabrics have been placed. As the end of the month approaches, there may be a moderate amount of stocking up on dips.
Business analysts believe that due to the ongoing uncertainty in the geopolitical situation in Europe, international crude oil may experience a wide range of fluctuations. The PTA maintenance equipment has been restarted one after another, and the increase in production has strengthened the expectation of loose supply. At the same time, the demand momentum is insufficient after the end of the peak consumption season. Overall, the pressure on supply and demand has increased, and it is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will mainly decline.
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