Recently (11.1-11.11), the market price of Shunding rubber has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 11th, the market price of Shunding rubber in East China was 15030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.53% from 15580 yuan/ton on November 1st. The price of raw material butadiene has dropped significantly, and the center of gravity of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards; Shunding rubber production has slightly increased; The downstream tire production is generally stable. Shunding rubber suppliers have lowered their supply prices, and merchants have adjusted their quotes. As of November 11th, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China are 14850~15250 yuan/ton.
Recently, the price of butadiene has continued to decline, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 11th, the price of butadiene was 10937 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.26% from 12325 yuan/ton on November 1st.
Recently (11.1-11.11), the overall start-up rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants has slightly increased to 6.60%. Qilu Petrochemical recently restarted and Zhejiang Petrochemical stopped for maintenance, resulting in a slight increase in pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber.
Demand side: Downstream tire production has started to narrow down, and demand is mainly supported by the rigid demand of the butadiene rubber market. As of November 7th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 60%.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will significantly fall, and the cost support for butadiene rubber will weaken; Shunding rubber production remains at a low level, with a slight increase in supply pressure; In the near future, downstream construction has been adjusted steadily, and there is a slight resistance to the high price supply. In general, the market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is dominated by weak shocks in the short term.
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