Price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market experienced a narrow decline in early November, with some spot prices of certain brands falling below pre holiday levels. As of October 31st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 15983.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.10% compared to the beginning of October.
Cause analysis
On the supply side: Recently, the overall operating rate of PC in China has limited changes, and there are maintenance plans in Cangzhou Dahua. The industry average operating rate has narrowly fallen from around 81% at the beginning of the month to 79.3%. The weekly production of PC remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons in the medium and long term, with abundant on-site supply and a profound supply-demand mismatch pattern. Last week, the loose supply pattern remained unchanged, and there was little positive news on the supply side. Manufacturers were unable to raise prices, and factory pricing was under pressure to be lowered. At the same time, the future maintenance plan is sparse, and the market supply side continues to drag down PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic price of bisphenol A stopped falling and stabilized in early November. The market for phenol and acetone, the direct raw materials of bisphenol A, has been weak and consolidated, with average support for the market. The downstream PC production of the two main forces has limited changes, while the epoxy resin production has increased and the stocking heat has slightly rebounded, which to some extent supports the consumption of bisphenol A. But in the early stage, the bisphenol A industry had a heavy load return, and the supply of goods was abundant. Overall, bisphenol A’s support for PC costs has stopped further dragging down or entered a plateau period.
In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not shown any improvement in the medium to long term, and the overall trend has been relatively weak compared to the previous period. The traditional peak season of “golden September and silver October” has not been realized in terminal consumption, and the logic of weak rigid demand procurement continues to this day. The bidding price of Zhejiang Petrochemical has fallen at a low level, and the wait-and-see sentiment of the industry is biased. Buyers have strong resistance to high priced goods, and the circulation of goods on site is slow. The load recovery of downstream enterprises is not significant, and factories are taking goods to maintain production. It is difficult for the demand side to form strong support for spot prices.
Future forecast
In early November, the PC market continued its weak trend and fell at a low level. The upstream bisphenol A market has stopped falling and stabilized, with overall weak support for PC costs. The load of domestic polymerization plants continues to be high, and the supply remains high. Downstream weak and rigid demand stocking makes it difficult to drive the market trend, resulting in poor flow of market goods and a profound mismatch between supply and demand. Although the price of PC has fallen below the low point of the year, industry benefits are difficult to materialize. Therefore, Shengyi Society predicts that the future PC market may face the risk of a downward trend.
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