According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of cotton yarn rose sharply in October and then slightly fell back. As of October 31, the reference price of 21S pure cotton ring spinning spot in Shandong Province, China was around 22970 yuan/ton, an increase of about 330 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, an increase of 1.47%; The reference price for 32S pure cotton ring spinning spot is 24400 yuan/ton, an increase of 525 yuan/ton or 2.20% from the beginning of the month.
Market Overview: After the National Day holiday, downstream fabric factories have concentrated on purchasing, and textile enterprises have increased their orders, resulting in price increases. Some manufacturers have raised their cotton yarn prices by 500-800 yuan/ton, but the peak season support time is relatively short. In the mid to late months, textile enterprises have gradually decreased their orders, and prices have slightly decreased. During the month, the futures price of Zhengzhou cotton significantly weakened, coupled with the weak peak season and limited orders from cotton yarn enterprises. The Zhengzhou cotton main chain also followed suit and weakened, with a monthly drop of 920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.52%.
Startup situation: The textile market orders were basically stable in October, with a significant decrease in startup for small textile enterprises and a stable startup for large enterprises. Overall, there was little change, and most enterprises maintained normal production, while some manufacturers increased the proportion of cotton startups. As of the end of October, the operating load of mainstream textile enterprises was 72.5%, with a month on month increase of 0.1%, basically stable.
Finished product inventory: In early October, cotton yarn shipments were smooth. After mid October, due to poor follow-up of new orders, small and medium-sized yarn factories adjusted their operations to maintain reasonable inventory. As of the end of October, the yarn inventory of major regional textile enterprises was 23.9 days, a month on month decrease of 5.91%.
In terms of raw materials: Currently, cotton is in a concentrated supply season, and commercial inventories have entered an increasing state. Expected cotton prices to fluctuate weakly in November, pay attention to macroeconomic policy adjustments and external market dynamics.
On the demand side: The market for greige fabric is flat, affected by factory inventory and sluggish orders. Even if yarn prices rise, the price of regular greige fabric has not been able to increase. Recently, there has been a decreasing trend in overall orders, with some orders being overturned but all being small orders, mainly consisting of early replenishment.
Market forecast: After the “Silver October”, downstream demand will gradually weaken, and the market trading atmosphere will decrease. It is expected that textile companies will lower their operating rates to reduce inventory. There is currently no positive support for downstream in the short term, and it is expected that cotton yarn prices will be weak next month. We will continue to pay attention to the order situation of fabric factories.
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