Recently (10.12~10.22), the market price of Shunding rubber has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of October 22, the market price of Shunding rubber in East China was 16110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.78% from 16570 yuan/ton on October 12. The price of raw material butadiene continues to fall, and the cost is weakened by the support of butadiene rubber; Shunding rubber production is still at a low level; The downstream tires shall be adjusted when starting. Shunding rubber suppliers have lowered their supply prices, and merchants have adjusted their quotes. As of October 22, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China are 15850-16300 yuan/ton.
Recently, the price of butadiene has continued to decline slightly, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 22, the price of butadiene was 13162 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.05% from 13437 yuan/ton on October 12.
Recently (10.12~10.22), the overall start-up rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants is still at a low of 5.8%. Qilu Petrochemical has shut down for maintenance, and Taiwan Rubber’s Ube plant is planned to restart. The pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber is not significant.
Demand side: Downstream tire production is stable, providing essential support for the butadiene rubber market. As of October 16th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises has remained stable at around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region has increased to about 60%.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will slightly fall, and the cost support for butadiene rubber will continue to weaken; Shunding rubber production remains at a low level, with little pressure on the supply side; In the near future, downstream construction has been adjusted steadily, and there is a conflict with the high price supply. In general, the market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber may fluctuate in the short term.
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