According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market first rose and then fell in the first half of October 2024, with an overall upward trend. On October 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 5890 yuan/ton, and on October 15th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6050 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.72% during the period. This cycle coincided with the National Day holiday, during which the external market continued to rise. The toluene market made up for the post holiday gains, and the overall ex factory prices of main refineries increased. However, downstream follow-up was insufficient and lacked demand support, resulting in weak growth in the toluene market. After the holiday, there were more arrivals in the port market, and market supply increased. Under the influence of sufficient supply, the toluene market rose and then fell back, and the overall trading in the spot market was weak. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong. As of October 15th, the mainstream price range for toluene in the East China region today is between 6050-6080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous period’s 6150-6180 yuan/ton.
On the cost side: The international oil price market has risen, and during China’s National Day holiday, international oil prices have significantly increased. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East has had an impact, which is good news for international oil prices. On the other hand, the supply of crude oil remains tight. The OPEC+2.2 million barrels per day production reduction before the end of November will still be effective, and some oil producing countries have stated that they will carry out compensatory production cuts. The supply shortage still exists, and the international crude oil price trend is rising. However, concerns about the global economy and demand outlook still exist in the market, coupled with the end of the US oil peak and the increase in US crude oil inventories suppressing the rise in crude oil prices. Overall, the trend of crude oil prices has risen during the cycle. As of October 14th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $73.83 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $77.46 per barrel.
Supply side: Sinopec toluene quotation situation: Currently, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of the equipment is stable, the products are mostly self used, and the production and sales are stable. As of October 15th, East China Company quoted 6000 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6050 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6000-6050 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6100 yuan/ton.
Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak
On September 23rd, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7800 yuan/ton for xylene, which remained unchanged from the price on September 16th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $840-842/ton as of September 20th, a cumulative decrease of $6/ton from $834-836/ton on September 17th.
During this period, the Asian toluene market saw a slight decrease in external prices. As of October 14th, the Asian toluene market had a closing FOB Korea price of $740-742/ton in October, with a decrease of $11/ton during the period; The closing price of CFR China in October is 741-743 US dollars per ton, with a decrease of 2 US dollars per ton during the period.
Market forecast: Positive policies will drive the crude oil market higher, but due to insufficient downstream demand, there will be significant resistance to the rise of the toluene market. From the perspective of supply and demand, there has been a significant increase in supply in recent times. Holders of goods are actively shipping, while downstream procurement intentions are more cautious, maintaining a focus on replenishing essential inventory. Overall, the mentality of supply and demand game in the toluene market still exists, and the recent trend is mainly characterized by slight fluctuations
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