The price of ethylene glycol decreased in September
The price of ethylene glycol began to decline in September. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of September 26th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.28% from September 1st. The prices in each region are as follows:
On September 26, 2024, the operating price of ethylene glycol at the port was between 4500-4540 yuan/ton, and the spot contract basis slightly increased during the day. This week, the paper cargo basis quotation was+38 to+43; In October, the base price quotation will be+38 to+43 yuan/ton; The base price for November is+42 to+46 yuan/ton.
On September 26th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4180-4300 yuan/ton, including taxes.
On September 25, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $544/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $535/ton.
List of Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory Data for September
As of September 26, 2024, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 553400 tons, a decrease of 119900 tons compared to the total spot inventory of 673300 tons on August 29.
On September 25, 2024, the main flow storage area of Zhangjiagang Port shipped about 9100 tons of ethylene glycol, while the two main flow storage areas of Taicang shipped about 5450 tons of ethylene glycol.
Overview of Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals
Inventory changes: The absolute inventory of ethylene glycol at the port remains relatively low, with continuous destocking in the early stages. This week, inventory has slightly rebounded, mainly due to the delayed arrival of ships caused by typhoon weather in the early stages.
Device dynamics: The restart time of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Plant has been postponed to October; Zhejiang Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, Shenghong Refining and Chemical and other facilities have been restarted; The load of the 1.8 million ton plant in Shaanxi has gradually returned to normal operation from 70%, and subsequent plants will restart one after another. The industry’s production will fluctuate and rebound. A 300000 ton synthetic gas plant in Inner Mongolia is expected to produce around the end of September.
Downstream polyester plant: The recovery of the plant was relatively concentrated this week. After a plant in Jiangyin was shut down due to a typhoon in mid month, it has already recovered to a higher load this week. In addition, other plants have been opened for maintenance or increased in load.
Future expectations
Driven by favorable domestic macro conditions, the raw material sector has seen a significant increase, and the polyester sector as a whole has rebounded. In addition, inventory is at a relatively low level, prices have fallen below the previous volatility range, and market competition has intensified.
On the demand side, there may be a peak season that falls short of expectations, resulting in limited improvement in demand. At present, macro factors have a significant impact on prices, and it is expected that ethylene glycol prices will mainly fluctuate in the short term.
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