According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall trend of mixed xylene market has been declining recently (9.16-9.23). On September 16th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 6260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.28% from 6180 yuan/ton on September 23rd. The mixed xylene market is still operating weakly in this cycle, with overall market prices. As of September 23, the mainstream price range for xylene in the East China region was 6000-6050 yuan/ton in the morning, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week. Although crude oil prices have risen during the cycle, which has given the market a certain boost, the Shandong region has been affected by poor demand during the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, and local refining companies have lowered their ex factory quotations, resulting in a low mentality in the spot market and a strong downstream pressure mentality, leading to a weak overall market operation. The overall market in other regions has also been affected, shifting from rising to falling.
Cost wise: The international oil price market first fell and then rose. As of the 19th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.95 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.88 per barrel. The crude oil market has started to decline in this cycle, and this news is negative for international oil prices due to the easing of tensions in the Middle East. Global crude oil demand fell short of expectations, coupled with the end of the peak oil season in the United States, dragging down the crude oil market and causing a decline in crude oil market prices. The rise in crude oil market prices in the later stage of this cycle, coupled with the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, has boosted the crude oil market. Looking ahead, the current geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States has ended, and global economic data has performed poorly. However, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts have boosted the oil market, and the crude oil market is mainly volatile.
Supply side: During this cycle, most of Sinopec’s xylene quotations have been lowered. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotations remain unchanged from the previous day. As of September 23rd, East China Company quoted 6100 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6100-6150 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6300-6400 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6100 yuan/ton.
Demand side: The phthalic anhydride and xylene markets are operating weakly
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 20th, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by phthalic anhydride was 7337.50 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on September 18th at 7337.50 yuan/ton, but decreased by 0.34% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on September 14th before the holiday at 7362.50 yuan/ton. This week, the price of ortho xylene is 7400 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to before the holiday. The cost of neighboring phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, and the phthalic anhydride market is stabilizing. This week, the domestic price for ortho phthalic anhydride is 7200-7400 yuan/ton, while the domestic price for nano phthalic anhydride is 7100-7200 yuan/ton.
On September 23rd, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7800 yuan/ton for xylene, which remained unchanged from the price on September 16th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $840-842/ton as of September 20th, a cumulative decrease of $6/ton from $834-836/ton on September 17th.
Market forecast: From a cost perspective, the recent improvement in the crude oil market provides some support for market sentiment. In terms of supply, the inventory of xylene in Shandong region has remained high recently, and enterprises are actively reducing prices to clear inventory. The port inventory in East China has slightly increased recently, and there are still some incoming goods this week. The overall supply of xylene in the market is relatively loose. On the demand side, although downstream enterprises have a need to replenish inventory near the holiday, the overall demand still leans towards rigid demand, and the market downturn atmosphere is more wait-and-see. Overall, under the influence of loose supply, it is expected that the atmosphere in the spot market will remain weak in the short term. The market trend is expected to remain stable and fluctuate slightly in the short term, with a focus on pre holiday stocking in the future.
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