In the last week of August, the domestic acrylonitrile market ended its nearly four month decline and rebounded from the bottom. The mainstream self pickup price in East China ports quickly rose from 8050 yuan/ton to around 8550 yuan/ton, with a two-day increase of 6.2%. The main reason for this rebound comes from the supply side, with major factories in East China reducing their equipment load. Due to the long-term unilateral decline of acrylonitrile prices in the early stage, which resulted in historically low levels, coupled with the worsening loss situation of individual products, there was a strong sentiment of buying and replenishing at the bottom of the market, and buying orders quickly followed suit.
Supply reduction
The capacity utilization rate of the acrylonitrile industry has decreased from around 75% last week to around 66% currently.
After overcapacity in the acrylonitrile industry, the impact of supply changes on market trends becomes more direct, that is, the negative correlation between capacity utilization and prices is significantly strengthened.
Cost support
The continuous increase in cost pressure is also an important factor supporting the rapid rebound of acrylonitrile market prices in this round.
Since late June, the production profit of acrylonitrile single products has shown negative performance, and the loss situation has gradually worsened. Acrylonitrile manufacturers in some MMA co production facilities can still maintain normal production, but other enterprises are facing severe pressure of losses. Therefore, manufacturers have a particularly strong intention to raise prices, and there is some positive support on the news side, making the enthusiasm for pushing up prices more obvious.
However, the acrylonitrile market only continued to rise for 2-3 days this week, and then returned to calm again. On the one hand, there has been no further improvement in overall downstream demand, and buying orders have quickly resumed the pace of immediate demand after a moderate replenishment of positions; On the other hand, although the industry’s capacity utilization rate has significantly decreased, the industry’s inventory still needs to be digested, and the overall supply is still abundant.
market prediction
At present, the acrylonitrile market needs to continue waiting for further positive news support to emerge. Overall, supply may still be reduced, and demand will gradually improve in September. Therefore, the market is prone to rise but difficult to fall in the short term. However, considering the continuous existence of supply variables under the background of overcapacity, the upward space in the market is still difficult to expand, and it may be difficult to break through the 9000 yuan/ton mark in the short term.
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